Monthly Archives: May 2017

Time posted: 1:02 am

Looking Into Early June

Good Wednesday, everyone. We are wrapping up the month of May with near normal temps and some scattered storms. That’s a pretty tame setup for what has proven to be a pretty volatile month. Now, it’s time to focus on early June and the start of meteorological summer.

This final day of May will feature a storm or two blowing up with highs in the upper 70s for many areas…

Day one of June will feature more of the same with some scattered storms and lots of upper 70s for highs.

Temps may spike a bit to start the coming weekend, ahead of a system diving in from the northwest. The European Model continues to show this as a big bowling ball upper low dropping in from the northwest…

Ahead of that, numerous showers and thunderstorms look to develop…

With that type a system diving in, the same model run shows a pretty stout area of below normal temperatures into the first full week of June…

Highs on this same model run early next week go beyond cool and get into the chilly range for summer. Check out the euro highs for the first 3 days of next week…

I’m not even close to convinced those are correct, but it proves there are zero signals for real summer heat showing up.

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:35 am

More Of The Same Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. May is just about to wrap up as we roll into June this Thursday, which starts meteorological summer. Will our current skewed cooler than normal and wetter than normal pattern continue? It sure looks like it.

Let’s recap where we’ve been over the past month. It’s been a pretty ugly period with normal to below normal temps and plenty of storms. These storms have put us above normal for rain fall. Check out the rainfall anomalies from the past 30 days…

So it’s only appropriate to close out the month of May with some additional storms. This action will be scattered and coming in from the northwest over the next few days. One cluster of storms may arrive this evening…

Another cluster may develop later Wednesday…

Temps will stay a little cooler than normal during this time.

As we open up the month of June, another trough digs in from the northwest…

That will fire off more rounds of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Some could be strong and we could see additional heavy rains into the weekend…

It’s pretty cool to see some of the models forecasting highs around 70 for a few days behind this. I’m not sure we get that cool, but this pattern is skewed that way.

A wild card will be if something decides to fire up in the Gulf of Mexico. Several different models have been trying to get somethin going down there, with the Canadian leading the charge. The problem with the Canadian is, it’s tries to spin everything up in the tropics. Outside of that system, this is a cool animation to show how active this pattern is…

You notice at the end of that run into the middle of next week, another big system is dropping in from the northwest. It’s not just the Canadian showing that. Check out the deepening trough getting within the range of the European…

Not a lot of summer temps with that setup…

Keep in mind that “cool” in summer isn’t like the “cool” of spring or fall. Normal highs are in the 80s, so mid and upper 70s are way below normal for the time of year. Most call that pleasant. In the world of weather and deviations from normal… that’s called cool. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:37 am

Memorial Day Look Ahead

Good Monday, everyone. On this Memorial Day, let’s remember those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for this amazing country of ours. To those serving today, I extend a big thank you for everything you do.

Today also marks the unofficial kickoff to summer, but the setup continues to be rather blah for summer fans. Highs on this Memorial Day will be in the upper 70s with a couple of low 80s showing up. Things are mainly dry, but I can’t rule out something isolated going up.

The pattern over the next few days will feature temps around normal or a bit below as we wrap up May. A couple of showers and storms will try to go up, with a much more active pattern looming later this week into the weekend. That’s when a decent trough digs back into the region…

The rainfall forecast from the GFS for the next week and change shows the active thunderstorm setup…

This overall wetter than normal setup is likely to carry us into the start of Summer, and maybe through the summer. The GFS Ensembles for the next two weeks show a lot of action across the east…

Notice the big blob of rain in the southern Gulf of Mexico. There have been some hints of early season tropical development there. We shall see.

How about the rain numbers through the 4th of July? There’s no shortage of rain across much of the country on the CFS…

Keep in mind, that’s a smoothed out average!

The CFS for June-August shows a lot of above normal rains throughout our part of the world…

With the above normal rains, the model also sees a lot of normal to cooler than normal numbers for the summer…

Have a great Memorial Day and take care.


Time posted: 2:08 am

Strong To Severe Storms Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. After a severe weather filled Saturday, additional rounds of strong to severe storms will target the region again today. This action is ahead of a cold front sweeping in here from the west.

The greatest threat for severe weather comes this afternoon and evening, and may be more linear than our Saturday storms. Damaging winds and hail continue to be the primary players. We will also have to watch for another round of flash flooding. Parts of the state picked up 5″ of rain on Saturday, so it won’t take much more to create more issues.

Some good news does show up for Memorial Day as our skies finally dry. Morning showers move away from the southeast, leaving partly sunny skies behind. Highs will generally run from 75-80 for many.

Temps for the week ahead look to average cooler than normal for the final days of May into early June. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return for the second half of the week.

In the short-term, it’s all about the severe weather potential, so lets do some tracking…

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 2:10 am

Severe Weather Tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. We are dealing with a very active weather pattern for the weekend, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms rolling through. These storms can be strong to severe and put down enough rain to cause flash flooding.

Here are a few notes on the weekend:

  • Rounds of storms rumble across the state today through Sunday night.
  • Each storm cluster can produce damaging winds, large hail and even a few tornadoes.
  • A Mesoscale Convective System may develop and roll across the state this evening and tonight. Damaging winds will be the main threat if this event gets cranking.
  • The actual cold front moves in late Sunday with another round of severe thunderstorms possible.
  • Given how wet the ground is, and the amount of moisture available for these storms to tap, flash flooding is a very real concern this weekend.
  • In between storm clusters, you can get several dry hours with warm temps and high humidity levels

I have you all set to track the severe threat today…

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Here’s the severe weather outlook for Sunday…

I will update as needed and be on WKYT-TV if conditions warrant.

Enjoy your day and take care.