Daily Archives: May 18, 2017

Time posted: 12:51 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Thursday, everyone. We are rolling into a steamy and stormy pattern taking shape in the coming days. This setup can bring some heavy rains our way for part of the upcoming weekend. It’s all part of a very active weather pattern that continues to take shape.

In addition to the short-term pattern, I’m firing up the seasonal models to take us all the way through next winter.

Let’s start with the next few days before getting too far ahead of ourselves. Highs today will be back into the 80s with high humidity levels helping spawn a storm or two.

The thunderstorm risk will increase Friday into Saturday and some of the storms may be strong. With so much moisture in the air, watch for heavy downpours…

Deep tropical moisture then gets drawn into the region ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Local severe storms are possible, but the torrential rain threat is something we need to watch…

Dry and cool weather then moves in for Monday, but the dry part isn’t going to last long as this active pattern rolls on. Watch this big dip in the jet stream and how long it lingers…

That leads to additional systems bringing showers and storms to our region…

As of now, that’s not a good look as we roll into our Memorial Day weekend.

Let’s take a look way down the weather road and see what one of the seasonal models has to say. The JAMSTEC model has had a pretty decent track record in recent years, so I wanted to see how it was looking for the rest of the year.

It has a warm look for June-August…

You can see a small area of normal temps from the Midwest into the northern Ohio Valley, but’s that’s a pretty warm signal.

That warm signal then begins to really cool by the fall. Take a look at the September-November temps…

What about the winter ahead? A very cold signal is showing up on the model for December-February…

The progression of the seasons above is typical of an emerging weak El Nino, which looks likely to develop this year.

As mentioned, the JAMSTEC has been on a “hot” streak and correctly nailed this past winters warmth. Here’s the forecast issued from last May…

Not too bad.

Have a great day and take care.

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