Monthly Archives: August 2017

Time posted: 1:57 am

Tracking The Threats From Harvey

Good Thursday, everyone. The historic storm known as Harvey is ready to blast the bluegrass state with flooding rains, high winds and the chance for an isolated tornado. All of this happens as the center of circulation passes right on top of the Commonwealth.

Here’s a breakdown of how things are looking…

  • The heaviest rain during the daylight hours today will be across far southern parts of the state.
  • The core of heavy rain thunderstorms from Harvey spread from southwest to northeast this evening into tonight.
  • This will continue into Friday with a general 2″-5″ across central and eastern Kentucky with amounts of 6″+ showing up in areas between the I-65 corridor and the I-75 corridor. 1″-3″ should show up in the far east and southeast
  • Flooding and flash flooding will be likely, especially in the west and central sections of Kentucky.
  • As the center of circulation passes through here, it will combine with high pressure to our north to create high wind gusts. 40mph+ gusts will be noted along and north/west of the track of Harvey.
  • There will be a chance for isolated tornadoes across southern and southeastern Kentucky tonight and Friday.
  • Lingering showers will be across the central and eastern parts of the state through Saturday.
  • Temps Friday will be amazing to watch. 80 is possible ahead of Harvey in the southeast, with readings dropping into the low and middle 50s behind the storm.
  • Highs Saturday may stay in the upper 50s across the east.
  • The weather looks much much better for Sunday and Labor Day.
  • A powerful fall cold front arrives Tuesday with more showers and storms and could pick up something from the Gulf. Temps behind this absolutely tank for the middle and end of next week. We may flirt with record lows.
  • There is a strong signal for a hurricane to approach the southeastern US in about a week and a half from now.

Be sure to tune in to WKYT-TV for extended severe weather coverage through Friday. I have the blog set for all your Harvey tracking needs…


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Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Stay safe and have a great Thursday.

11 Comments

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the major impact Harvey is going to bring our way over the next few days. From flooding rains to an isolated tornado, we have a lot to track Thursday through the first part of Saturday.

The center of Harvey will pass right on top of Kentucky Thursday night through Friday night. This will bring the heaviest rain and greatest flood threat for areas along and north/west of the low. Here’s the updated rainfall forecast…

Gusty winds will also be a significant issue, with some gusts potentially reaching 40mph +…

 

I’m also watching areas south and southeast of the center of circulation for the potential for isolated tornadoes. While the greatest threat is likely south of Kentucky, here’s the area to keep an eye on…

Temperatures behind the low drop into the 50s  Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Leftover showers and clouds will likely keep areas of central and eastern Kentucky in the 50s for highs on Saturday. Hard to believe this is also a Pot Of Chili ALERT.

I will have a ton of tracking tools for you guys with my next update. Make it a good one and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Update On The Harvey Flood Threat

Good afternoon, gang. Harvey continues to produce historic flooding across Texas and Louisiana, but is finally on the move, and it’s heading to Kentucky. This will bring a tremendous amount of rain our way, leading to a significant flood threat for many areas of the state.

I’m seeing lots of high school football games being moved to Thursday evening, but many of those games may still have issues. Heavy rain and storms arrive from southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon and evening. Saturday is a better alternative for those games to be played, as there is basically zero chance of lightning then.

The track on Harvey is still on track to cause flooding issues across Kentucky through early Saturday. I’m gonna roll with my same rainfall forecast from earlier, but will make some updates to this on WKYT-TV later today…

The forecast models are pretty much in agreement with that forecast, with some minor differences in placement. Here’s the GFS…

The NAM…

As Harvey moves in, winds are going to be very gusty and may reach 40mph at times Thursday night into Friday.

Temperatures during this time will be awesome to watch. Southeastern Kentucky will be on the east side of the center of circulation and will see temps deep into the 70s. Areas west and north of the track will see temps in the low and middle 50s.. during the afternoon. With lingering clouds and showers on Saturday, some areas of central and eastern Kentucky may stay in the 50s for highs.

Better weather rolls in here for Sunday and Labor Day.

I have you all set to track the progress of Harvey…


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I will likely drop by for another update this evening.

Make it a good one and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 2:02 am

Harvey Brings A Flood Threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our historic storm known as Harvey is going to have a big impact on the bluegrass state later this week into the holiday weekend. What’s left of the system will move right on top of us, bringing a significant flood threat to the region.

Before Harvey gets here, we are dealing with isolated showers and storms out there today, with a greater concentration across the southern half of the state. The rains across the far south and southwest may be an overachiever today, and that’s something to keep a close eye on…


Harvey is making another landfall early today, this time across Louisiana. The storm will then lift to the north and northeast and roll across Kentucky by Saturday. The track from the National Hurricane Center continues to match the one I made for you guys this past weekend…

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I’m concerned about flooding developing across the region. The heaviest rains will be along and north/west of the center of circulation as it rides into Kentucky…

Here’s my current thinking on the rain numbers…

There is likely to be an area of greater than 6″ rains, I just can’t pinpoint that yet. The above numbers would be enough to cause high water issues, especially Friday and Friday night. I will update the numbers and placement later today.

The heavy rains will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening.

Some other thoughts on the setup:

  • Winds with this system can top 30mph at times from Thursday night through Friday night.
  • Some local 40mph gusts will be possible as Harvey first enters Kentucky
  • Temps to the north and west of the track of the low can absolutely tank at times. Many areas may spend much of Friday into Saturday with temps in the low and middle 60s. We may even see 50s show up at times during the afternoon hours. Southeast of the low will be milder.

All of this leave us quickly enough to give us a pleasant Sunday and Labor day.

After that, the extreme weather continues with one of the coolest looking early season patterns I can ever remember. Another big front moves in here by the middle of next week, with the potential for another tropical system impacting some of the devastated areas of Texas and Louisiana…

The shot of chill coming down from Canada is a beast…

That’s one amazing look and I can’t recall models that cold looking during the first week of September. Near record lows are possible later next week into next weekend.

At the same time, don’t be surprised to see a hurricane cruising toward the southeastern coastline.

From western heat to Harvey to the chill to additional tropical systems, things as extreme as you will ever find them across the country.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a great day and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 12:43 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update On Harvey

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track scattered showers and storms across the region today, but the main focus of the forecast is on Harvey heading our way. Harvey could bring very heavy rain and a flood threat to much of the bluegrass state.

Before we get to the latest on Harvey, let’s track the scattered showers and storms of today…

From there, we focus on Harvey. The storm is over water, but is finally starting to move and will likely make another landfall along the Texas/Louisiana coast later tonight or Wednesday. Once inland, the updated track from the National Hurricane Center brings this across Kentucky…

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That is the now spitting image of the forecast map I drew up 2 days ago…

One thing you guys have probably noticed about me through the years is, when I hand draw a map for an event, I’m pretty confident.

Wednesday will find us mainly in between systems, but a band of showers and storms from out in front of Harvey may move into southern parts of the state.

The main action from Harvey arrives later Thursday, with the greatest emphasis on Friday and Saturday. That’s when things take a turn for the worse, with the potential for a wide corridor of flooding rains.

The GFS and Canadian Models are similar in bringing the system into Kentucky…

 

I will hone in on the best chance for flooding on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will update things as needed on the blog.

After all this rain, things get really cool later next week. That’s some real deal early season chill showing up.

Btw… Play nice in the comments section. To each his or her own.

Enjoy your day and take care.

10 Comments