Monthly Archives: August 2017

Time posted: 1:29 am

Heavy Rain From Harvey Likely Later This Week

Good Tuesday, everyone. As rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to soak some areas of the bluegrass state, it’s all eyes on Harvey and the Kentucky impact. The remnants of this storm will move our way later this week, bringing a significant heavy rain threat.

In the short-term, temps stay in the upper 70s to low 80s today, with additional showers and storms. Similar to Monday, some pockets of 1″+ rains are possible out there today, leading to local high water concerns…

Harvey is back out over the Gulf today and could flirt with becoming a hurricane again before making a second landfall. My thoughts on where this goes, haven’t changes since I made this map Sunday…

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (which has jumped around a lot the past few days), now looks similar to the map I have out…

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Like clockwork, the American models such as the NAM and GFS are coming to their senses and realizing what the other, more superior, models have been showing for a while. Here’s the GFS showing what’s left of Harvey moving into Kentucky…

The Canadian has been showing this solution for a while…

This looks like a general 1″-4″ rain maker for much of Kentucky from Thursday through Sunday. There could be a swath of 5″+ setting up somewhere across our region, but it’s still a bit too early for specifics on where. This setup will lead to an increased flood and flash flood threat during this time.

Irma continues to develp right on the Carolina coast, producing heavy rains, tropical storm force winds and big surf. This system should work our to sea over the next 24 hours…

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Looking down the road to the middle and end of next week, we find one of those “wow” looking setups. Check out this DEEP trough digging into the eastern half of the country…

Record lows may be challenged in a setup like that, and a few days may find temps struggling to get out of the 60s for highs.

But, the short-term is all about the rain from Harvey. I will update things later today, so check back.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 12:26 pm

Harvey To Impact Our Weather

Good afternoon, gang. Showers and thunderstorms are kicking off a very wet week here in the commonwealth of Kentucky. The remnants of Harvey are expected to track our way for the second half of the week, bringing very heavy rains into the region.

Let’s start with the storms that are out there today. Local 1″-2″ amounts may cause some quick rises on area creeks and streams…

More of the same will be noted for Tuesday as our upper level system works through the Ohio Valley.

From there, it’s all about what happens with Harvey. I made this Map Sunday, and see no need for any changes right now…

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast continues to adjust toward the above scenario…

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The GFS is finally aboard with this scenario…

We will need to be on guard for Flooding issues to develop late week into the Labor Day weekend. This is a slow-moving system and the models will likely undercook the rain numbers well inland.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Enjoy your afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 2:23 am

Tracking Storms and The Harvey Impact

Good Monday, everyone. Our pattern has been cool and quiet of late, but the quiet part is about to change in hurry. Showers and storms are increasing over the next few days, with Harvey likely to have a significant impact on our weather before the week is over.

Let’s begin with the showers and storms out there today. These are firing up ahead of a potent upper level system diving in here from the northwest. It’s not all day rain, nor will everyone see the intense action today. Those who do will get in on some very heavy rains…

That’s a setup that takes us into Tuesday, with local areas of 2″+ rainfall likely showing up. This could be enough to cause high water issues in spots.

Harvey continues to drop historic rains across southeastern Texas. The storm will likely move back over water and strengthen, making a second landfall just in northeaster Texas. Here’s the latest from the NHC…

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Harvey will then lift northward into the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, throwing the first rains toward Kentucky around Thursday. Here’ is my initial thinking on where the leftovers of Harvey go…

Adjustments, some large, may be needed for that map as Harvey’s path comes into better focus. Also, that’s a 4 day timespan, but I don’t expect wall to wall rain for 4 days IF Harvey comes our way. But, we will need to be on guard for a high water threat.

The GFS looks lost in the woods, but the Canadian continues with good run to run continuity…

Regardless of Harvey, a HUGE blast of cool comes in behind that…

While all this is going on, we have Irma firing up along the southeastern coast…

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I will try to update again today, so be sure to check back.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 3:27 pm

Update On The Week Ahead

Good Sunday afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on what is likely to be a very busy weather week ahead. A few storms will increase in the coming days, but the main action may come later this week when Harvey decides to finally move.

We have an upper level low spinning into the region Monday and Tuesday. This will cause rounds of showers and storms to increase, with some of them producing very heavy rains. Pockets of 1″-2″ rains may show up…

This can cause some local high water issues to develop.

Harvey continues to produce historic flooding across Texas. Words cannot describe the destruction and heartbreak that’s going on their now. Unfortunately, it’s only going to get worse with another 20″-30″ of rain possible. Harvey may even slip back out over the water and strengthen again before a 2nd landfall. This may go down as the biggest natural disaster in our country’s history.

We need Harvey to start to move and FAST. The European Model finally begins to kick Harvey out of Texas by late Wednesday into Thursday…

Notice some of the rains ahead of Harvey are working into Kentucky during this time. The new European then takes what’s left of Harvey and moves it right into Kentucky from Friday through Sunday…

That would bring a flood threat our way, IF it’s accurate.

The Canadian Model does support the European…

The GFS has been all over the place with Harvey, but again, it is the GFS. Even so, the model isn’t that far away from what the above models are showing…

Moral of the forecasting story: There is an increased chance we have to deal with rains from Harvey later this week, but it’s certainly not set in stone.

I’ll have the new model forecasts with my late night update.

Take care.

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Time posted: 2:34 am

Storms Set To Increase

Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend is wrapping up with an increase in clouds and the chance for a shower or storm to pop. This will lead us into a pattern that turns stormy into the last few days of August. From there, it’s all eyes on Harvey to see how much, if any, rain it can bring our way.

In the overall view of the setup, this is a very energetic pattern for this time of year. Some deep troughs will continue to show up as we head into September and I’m wondering if an early season frost is in the works. Hmmm

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with a shower or storm trying to develop…

An upper level low drops in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to showers and storms increasing across the region…

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms that work through here. You can also see our storm system developing off the east coast. That may get a name, but is likely to head out to see. One thing to watch for is the potential for this upper low to pull some moisture from that storm and wrap it back in here. If that happens, it would lead to a greater heavy rain threat.

Harvey continues to dump historic amounts of rain across Texas. This storm could loop back toward the Gulf over the next few days and may strengthen again if it gets over the water…

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What happens to Harvey in the coming days? The operational models are all over the place, but the Canadian and NAM both bring this over the Gulf and into Louisiana in a few days…

If that’s the case, a trough digging into the region by Thursday and Friday could pick up, at least, some of that moisture and bring it in here.

If Harvey continues to hang around Texas through much of next week, another trough working in here by Sunday and Labor Day may pick up some of what’s left…

That’s a potent cool shot showing up behind that…

The models are also honing in on another deep system a few days after that…

That looks like something from November instead of the first week of September. Geez.

The big cool shots have strong support from the Ensembles…

Have a great day and take care.

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