Daily Archives: August 27, 2017

Time posted: 3:27 pm

Update On The Week Ahead

Good Sunday afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on what is likely to be a very busy weather week ahead. A few storms will increase in the coming days, but the main action may come later this week when Harvey decides to finally move.

We have an upper level low spinning into the region Monday and Tuesday. This will cause rounds of showers and storms to increase, with some of them producing very heavy rains. Pockets of 1″-2″ rains may show up…

This can cause some local high water issues to develop.

Harvey continues to produce historic flooding across Texas. Words cannot describe the destruction and heartbreak that’s going on their now. Unfortunately, it’s only going to get worse with another 20″-30″ of rain possible. Harvey may even slip back out over the water and strengthen again before a 2nd landfall. This may go down as the biggest natural disaster in our country’s history.

We need Harvey to start to move and FAST. The European Model finally begins to kick Harvey out of Texas by late Wednesday into Thursday…

Notice some of the rains ahead of Harvey are working into Kentucky during this time. The new European then takes what’s left of Harvey and moves it right into Kentucky from Friday through Sunday…

That would bring a flood threat our way, IF it’s accurate.

The Canadian Model does support the European…

The GFS has been all over the place with Harvey, but again, it is the GFS. Even so, the model isn’t that far away from what the above models are showing…

Moral of the forecasting story: There is an increased chance we have to deal with rains from Harvey later this week, but it’s certainly not set in stone.

I’ll have the new model forecasts with my late night update.

Take care.

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Time posted: 2:34 am

Storms Set To Increase

Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend is wrapping up with an increase in clouds and the chance for a shower or storm to pop. This will lead us into a pattern that turns stormy into the last few days of August. From there, it’s all eyes on Harvey to see how much, if any, rain it can bring our way.

In the overall view of the setup, this is a very energetic pattern for this time of year. Some deep troughs will continue to show up as we head into September and I’m wondering if an early season frost is in the works. Hmmm

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with a shower or storm trying to develop…

An upper level low drops in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to showers and storms increasing across the region…

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms that work through here. You can also see our storm system developing off the east coast. That may get a name, but is likely to head out to see. One thing to watch for is the potential for this upper low to pull some moisture from that storm and wrap it back in here. If that happens, it would lead to a greater heavy rain threat.

Harvey continues to dump historic amounts of rain across Texas. This storm could loop back toward the Gulf over the next few days and may strengthen again if it gets over the water…

cone graphic

What happens to Harvey in the coming days? The operational models are all over the place, but the Canadian and NAM both bring this over the Gulf and into Louisiana in a few days…

If that’s the case, a trough digging into the region by Thursday and Friday could pick up, at least, some of that moisture and bring it in here.

If Harvey continues to hang around Texas through much of next week, another trough working in here by Sunday and Labor Day may pick up some of what’s left…

That’s a potent cool shot showing up behind that…

The models are also honing in on another deep system a few days after that…

That looks like something from November instead of the first week of September. Geez.

The big cool shots have strong support from the Ensembles…

Have a great day and take care.

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