Daily Archives: September 6, 2017

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I promised to drop by for a quick update on Hurricane Irma and the impact it will have on the US and, possibly, Kentucky.

Irma has had winds of 185mph now for more than 24 straight hours and no other hurricane has ever stayed this strong for that long. That goes for the Atlantic basin or the eastern Pacific. WOW!!

Here’s the latest on Irma…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

My fear is that Irma stays a Cat 5 right up until a potential landfall in Florida. From there, the storm likely heads up the coast toward the Hilton Head area, where another landfall happens.

The latest European and GFS models are in pretty good agreement, and both bring this system right on top of Kentucky…

European

GFS

The latest Hurricane Models are also in pretty strong agreement…

If this track holds, it’s catastrophic for areas from Florida to South Carolina. It would also bring a heavy rain and wind threat our way by Monday night into the middle of the week.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 5:48 am

Pot Of Chili ALERT

Good Wednesday to one and all. We are issuing a full blown Pot Of Chili ALERT for the next few days. Yes, I know we had chili weather this past weekend, but I can’t issue an alert like this with flooding rains taking place. 🙂

While we are enjoying a blast of fall, Hurricane Irma is a monster heading toward Florida. We will get to that in a moment.

Let’s start with today’s weather. We will start things out with a clear sky in many areas, but clouds develop this afternoon as cold air aloft helps bubble up some showers and storms. Some of these may produce small, soft hail…

Highs will be in the 60s with gusty winds adding a chill to the air.

Temps Thursday morning can drop deep into the 40s, potentially setting some record lows. Lexington’s record is 48 from 1988. With clear skies, that should fall… even with the airport thermometer.

Thursday will see similar conditions, but with less showers. Highs for Friday through the weekend look to be in the 70s with gorgeous skies. It’s fall.

Hurricane Irma hit 185mph on Tuesday, marking only the 5th storm in the Atlantic basin to ever have winds that high. Here’s a look at the monster…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Irma will get to near Cuba and then will likely turn due north! Where that turn happens remains to be seen, but it will make a HUGE difference in areas taking the direct impact from Irma. This may very well be a Cat 4 or 5 storm wherever that landfall is.

The GFS is back to showing a track it had a few days ago, with our hurricane going up the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina. Notice the remnants wind up in Kentucky…

The European Model also goes up the east coast of Florida…

The model then takes the hurricane into South Carolina, with rains arriving in Kentucky by Tuesday…

Here are the latest GFS Ensembles spaghetti plot…

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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