Daily Archives: September 22, 2017

Time posted: 1:35 am

Thoughts On The Road Ahead

Good Friday, folks. While we enjoy a period of toasty temps to start fall, I wanted to look a little deeper down the weather road. From a big change coming next week, to the upcoming fall and winter months, this update has you covered.

You guys ready? 🙂

Today features more of the same with temps in the muggy 80s and the chance for a stray shower or storm…

This pattern persists through the weekend into the first few days of next week. During this time, Hurricane Maria continues to barrel across the Caribbean, but the storm continues to look like a miss for the east coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

A big time fall cold front arrives in here by later Wednesday and Thursday. This front will have a band of showers and storms along and ahead of it, and a big push of chilly air behind hit. The recent trend on the models is for a system to swing through the base of our trough, spawning low pressure and some chilly rains around here…

If that system is real, it may take away the frost threat, but keep those temps very chilly during the days…

I actually prefer the secondary system developing, because they can often be a precursor to the early winter pattern.

Speaking of winter. I’ve already been hard at work compiling data for the winter forecast that comes out in November. I’m toying with the idea of putting out a preliminary forecast in early October. What do you guys think of that? The more responses, the better the chance I do it. 😉

While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.

The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January…

 

That model would make for a very fun winter around here!

The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December…

I promised you some winter talk and I delivered. Now, if you guys want that preliminary winter forecast in early October… You had better leave some comments telling me you do. 🙂 I have a magic number of comments in my head. If we get there, you will get that prelim winter outlook in a few weeks.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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