Monthly Archives: October 2017

Time posted: 7:26 pm

Halloween Update

Good evening,  folks. It’s a chilly Halloween evening across the state, and I wanted to drop by for a quick update on how things look as we roll into November.

Clouds are increasing this evening, with rain showing up from southwest to northeast last tonight and early Wednesday. Some of this may start as a period of a sleet, snow mix across the north…

Rain quickly takes over and could be heavy at times through Wednesday night. Some areas may pick up an inch of rain on day one of November…

Temperatures are going to run very mild through later this week through the upcoming weekend. 70 degree high temps will be possible on days getting in on less rain and clouds. By the way, I do not expect this weekend to be a washout, but some showers and storms will be floating around.

The best chance for these showers and storms will come Friday into Saturday…

The pattern looks to change pretty quickly into next week. A potent cold front shows up late Monday into Tuesday with a line of showers and gusty thunderstorms. The European Model has the front slowing down right on top of us…

That could lead to some very heavy rain totals before the colder air wins the battle…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:33 am

A Chilly Halloween

Good Tuesday and Happy Halloween. It’s a seasonally cold Halloween taking shape across the bluegrass state, but the focus of the forecast is on a very wet pattern taking shape. The transition from cold to wet may even mean a bit of a mix early Wednesday.

Highs out there today are generally in the 40s, with some low 50s in the south and west. Temps drop into the upper 30s by the time trick or treating is wrapping up, so wrap up the smaller kiddos. Things are dry, so we have that going for us. 🙂

Rain quickly increases later tonight into Wednesday, and it may start as a touch of frozen precipitation across the northern half of the state…

The best chances is across the far north, where a few hours of wintry mix will be possible. Chilly showers will then take over with temps in the 40s during the afternoon. Those numbers will actually climb all night and be in the middle and upper 50s by Thursday morning.

Mild temps settle in through the weekend and early next week, but it comes with a price. Rounds of showers and storms look to be common. Hefty rain totals are a good bet over the next week…

Once into the middle of next week, things continue to trend much colder…

Looking longer range at the precipitation chances, this is likely to be a VERY active fall and winter in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This includes both rain and snow.

If we look at strictly liquid precipitation through the next 6 weeks, we find the seasonal models going crazy across Kentucky. The long range European Ensembles through the middle of December is loaded with precipitation…

The CFS is nearly identical…

In addition to early season snow chances, this type of pattern would argue for some cold season flood issues to develop.

I will update things later today, so check back. Happy Halloween and take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 7:44 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. A cold front is dropping in from the northwest, bringing some clouds and decaying showers into the region. The air behind this front is cold for Halloween, and will play a part in what happens early Wednesday as rains return. We could see a touch of winter weather to start the day.

Any shower out there this evening will be mainly across the north…

No changes for the Halloween weather picture. Temps are in the upper 20s to start with 40s for highs. Clouds increase during the evening with temps falling into the upper 30s for trick or treaters.

November begins on a wet note with rain quickly moving in from southwest to northeast. With low dewpoints and temps in the 30s Wednesday morning, we will need to be on guard for some sleet and snow mix developing. The best chance for this will be across the northern half of the state. The GFS continues to ramp up the chances…

The GFS Ensembles are similar…

There’s the chance for some light accumulations in a few spots in the far north.

Rain takes over during the day and it looks very chilly with temps in the 40s. The numbers will climb from south to north Wednesday night as milder air presses in. This milder setup will also bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms our way through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Check out the rain totals…

The milder pattern is looking to reverse next week, with the potential for colder shots to show up. The second week of November is now taking on a pretty cold look on the Ensembles.

Look at the cold look on the European ensembles for that week…

The GFS Ensembles are going in that same direction…

Can we get our first true snowfall before November is finished? You betcha. Many of my analogs did just that. 😉

I will update things later tonight. Until then, enjoy your evening.

1 Comment