Monthly Archives: October 2017

Time posted: 7:26 pm

Halloween Update

Good evening,  folks. It’s a chilly Halloween evening across the state, and I wanted to drop by for a quick update on how things look as we roll into November.

Clouds are increasing this evening, with rain showing up from southwest to northeast last tonight and early Wednesday. Some of this may start as a period of a sleet, snow mix across the north…

Rain quickly takes over and could be heavy at times through Wednesday night. Some areas may pick up an inch of rain on day one of November…

Temperatures are going to run very mild through later this week through the upcoming weekend. 70 degree high temps will be possible on days getting in on less rain and clouds. By the way, I do not expect this weekend to be a washout, but some showers and storms will be floating around.

The best chance for these showers and storms will come Friday into Saturday…

The pattern looks to change pretty quickly into next week. A potent cold front shows up late Monday into Tuesday with a line of showers and gusty thunderstorms. The European Model has the front slowing down right on top of us…

That could lead to some very heavy rain totals before the colder air wins the battle…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:33 am

A Chilly Halloween

Good Tuesday and Happy Halloween. It’s a seasonally cold Halloween taking shape across the bluegrass state, but the focus of the forecast is on a very wet pattern taking shape. The transition from cold to wet may even mean a bit of a mix early Wednesday.

Highs out there today are generally in the 40s, with some low 50s in the south and west. Temps drop into the upper 30s by the time trick or treating is wrapping up, so wrap up the smaller kiddos. Things are dry, so we have that going for us. 🙂

Rain quickly increases later tonight into Wednesday, and it may start as a touch of frozen precipitation across the northern half of the state…

The best chances is across the far north, where a few hours of wintry mix will be possible. Chilly showers will then take over with temps in the 40s during the afternoon. Those numbers will actually climb all night and be in the middle and upper 50s by Thursday morning.

Mild temps settle in through the weekend and early next week, but it comes with a price. Rounds of showers and storms look to be common. Hefty rain totals are a good bet over the next week…

Once into the middle of next week, things continue to trend much colder…

Looking longer range at the precipitation chances, this is likely to be a VERY active fall and winter in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This includes both rain and snow.

If we look at strictly liquid precipitation through the next 6 weeks, we find the seasonal models going crazy across Kentucky. The long range European Ensembles through the middle of December is loaded with precipitation…

The CFS is nearly identical…

In addition to early season snow chances, this type of pattern would argue for some cold season flood issues to develop.

I will update things later today, so check back. Happy Halloween and take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 7:44 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. A cold front is dropping in from the northwest, bringing some clouds and decaying showers into the region. The air behind this front is cold for Halloween, and will play a part in what happens early Wednesday as rains return. We could see a touch of winter weather to start the day.

Any shower out there this evening will be mainly across the north…

No changes for the Halloween weather picture. Temps are in the upper 20s to start with 40s for highs. Clouds increase during the evening with temps falling into the upper 30s for trick or treaters.

November begins on a wet note with rain quickly moving in from southwest to northeast. With low dewpoints and temps in the 30s Wednesday morning, we will need to be on guard for some sleet and snow mix developing. The best chance for this will be across the northern half of the state. The GFS continues to ramp up the chances…

The GFS Ensembles are similar…

There’s the chance for some light accumulations in a few spots in the far north.

Rain takes over during the day and it looks very chilly with temps in the 40s. The numbers will climb from south to north Wednesday night as milder air presses in. This milder setup will also bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms our way through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Check out the rain totals…

The milder pattern is looking to reverse next week, with the potential for colder shots to show up. The second week of November is now taking on a pretty cold look on the Ensembles.

Look at the cold look on the European ensembles for that week…

The GFS Ensembles are going in that same direction…

Can we get our first true snowfall before November is finished? You betcha. Many of my analogs did just that. 😉

I will update things later tonight. Until then, enjoy your evening.

1 Comment

Time posted: 1:10 am

A Very Wet Pattern Taking Shape

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off one of those “wow” weather weekends across the bluegrass state. Snow fell on both days, with some of the colder October highs you will ever find in this region. This was the coldest and snowiest back to back October days since 1993 for many areas.

So, how do we top this as we head into November? Buckle up, because I think it’s going to be a very wild ride!

Before we get to November, we still have this little Halloween holiday to get through, and it’s looking cold. We have a weak front dropping in here this afternoon and evening, ushering in the cold air for the ghosts and goblins. There could be a few light showers along the front, especially in northern Kentucky…

Temps look to be in the upper 20s and low 30s tomorrow morning with 40s for highs. Trick or treat temps drop quickly into the 30s for many…

As we flip the calendar to November, Mother Nature is going to pick up the pace. Following one of the wettest Octobers on record, the beginning of November looks to keep that trend going.

A cold rain rolls in here on Wednesday. I’m still wondering if we can get a touch of sleet on the leading edge of this across the north. This possibility has been showing up on a few of the forecast models…

From there, rounds of showers and some thunderstorms take over for the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Temps are going to climb during this time, but it’s coming with a wet price. The pattern into early next week puts us in the line of fire for the bulk of the wet weather…

The GFS rainfall forecast over the next week and change is impressive…

As we head into the middle of next week, we find the pattern beginning to change up, but that doesn’t mean the rain train rolls away. Watch how the western trough starts to progress eastward…

We may actually see a series of troughs roll through here, with colder air showing up. That still means a lot of active weather.

Don’t take those exact numbers to heart, but rather as an indication that a lot of rain may fall through the first few weeks of November. I wonder if we can get the tail end of that to be in flake form? Hmm

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

39 Comments

Time posted: 2:14 am

A Cold End To The Weekend

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to deal with a very cold weekend across the bluegrass state. High temps are among some of the coldest you will find around here this time of year. As we look ahead, I see a very active weather pattern taking shape into the first 10 days or so of November.

Highs today may not get to 40 across parts of eastern Kentucky, with 40-45 for the rest of the region. Skies will be mostly cloudy and you may even see some flurries in the central and east. The far southeastern Kentucky mountains may see a little more than flurries early today…

As we are dealing with the cold around here, the east coast is dealing with a monster storm system. Tropical Storm Philippe is working just offshore and may be entrained into the storm, making it a monster into the northeast. Here’s the track of the tropical system…

cone graphic

That’s one heck of a track for any time of year, especially for the end of October, bringing wild weather for our neighbors in the northeastern part of the state.

Back here in Kentucky, a cold front drops in late Monday. Winds will be gusty and I can’t rule out a stray shower. This brings in another chilly air mass for Halloween. Highs are generally in the 40s, with cold temps awaiting the Ghosts and Goblins making their trick or treat rounds. Check out the 8pm temps…

November starts with a cold rain maker across the bluegrass state. It’s a system coming in from the southwest, and there is the chance for some mixed stuff not to far to our north. That’s something to watch early on Wednesday. The rain then takes over…

This kicks off an super active weather pattern, courtesy of a huge temperature gradient setting up across North America. While our temps will moderate, this sets the state for rounds of showers and thunderstorms going up over the first week or so of the month. This can put down a lot of water across our part of the world during this time…

We also have to keep in mind that this is our 2nd severe weather season. In addition to accurately forecasting our early season flakes, some of my analog years also had some November severe weather events.

I will try to update things later today, so check back.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

15 Comments