Daily Archives: October 4, 2017

Time posted: 7:24 pm

Tracking The Weekend Tropical Rain Threat

Good evening, everyone. We continue to watch for the potential for another tropical system to bring heavy rain to the bluegrass state. This potential comes later this weekend into early next week.

Tropical Depression 16 has developed off the coast of Nicaragua and will lift northwestward toward the Gulf Of Mexico…

This will likely become Tropical Storm Nate and then Hurricane Nate once it gets into the Gulf to start the weekend. As expected, the track from the National Hurricane Center continues to bend toward the west…

cone graphic

The GFS continues to show a cold front right on top of our region, as tropical moisture is drawn northward late Saturday and early Sunday. What’s left of the Hurricane then moves right on top of us…

That would bring a lot of heavy rain into our region, if it works out that way.

The European Model was east of all this over the past few days, likely because it’s having issues with a trough effecting out of the west. The latest run is coming west with a big interaction with the front…

That would bring heavy amounts of rain to central and eastern Kentucky, followed by a big outbreak of chilly air…

I’ll update things again later tonight. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a  quick update on the possibility for another tropical system to bring rain to Kentucky.

Tropical Depression 16 will become Nate very soon as it lifts northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. This system has some speed with it and isn’t going to mess around in terms of forward speed. Here’s the latest track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That will likely shift west across the Gulf of Mexico, closer to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Nate will try to team up with a cold front across the Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next week. The GFS continues to show a potent setup, starting late Saturday and Going through Monday…

That would certainly bring very heavy rains into Kentucky, with the potential for high water issues to develop.

The Canadian Model is now VERY similar with a Louisiana landfall, then toward the bluegrass state…

A few thoughts:

  • The prime time for our heavy rain threat is late Saturday through Monday
  • How much rain depends on exactly where Nate makes landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • A landfall west of Florida has a better chance of bringing heavy rain to Kentucky.
  • NOTHING is set in stone with this setup.
  • If Nate does bring rain to Kentucky, it would be the 4th tropical system of the season to do so.

In the near-term, showers and storms are hanging just to our north…

A couple of those may find their way into the bluegrass state later tonight or Thursday.

I’ll update things later this evening. Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Tropical Rains Possible This Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. All signs continue to point toward a very active weather pattern settling in over the next few weeks. That’s especially the case this weekend into early next week, when a cold front tries to team up with a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. We are seeing the chance for a shower or storm across the western half of the region as a cold front nears…

Anyone is fair game for isolated showers and storms Thursday into Friday, but the main threat comes this weekend. That’s when we get our front to work into the Ohio Valley and slow down. At the same time, something tropical may be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s a look at the messy setup in the Gulf and Caribbean…

The setup this weekend is pretty darn impressive with a tropical system racing northward into the Gulf, and a strong cold front on top of the Ohio Valley. Some pretty good thunderstorms are possible along this front on Saturday, then it tries to lift the Gulf system northward toward our region.

Here’s how the GFS sees it…

That run of the GFS produces several inches of rain across much of the bluegrass state.

The Canadian Model is similar, but doesn’t quite have the perfect hookup of the front and our tropical system…

While not as robust as the GFS, that’s still a healthy rain event around here. This one certainly has my attention over the next few days.

For what it’s worth, the overnight hurricane models are on the side of the GFS…

After that zips through by late Monday, another cold front takes aim at the region by Tuesday and Wednesday. This bad boy has chilly air moving on in behind it…

For some time now, the GFS has also been signaling a plains winter storm system unleashing some nasty weather and cold by the middle of the month…

It may be a fantasy of a model run, but that’s pretty incredible to see this early in the season.

I will hook you guys up with updates later today. Could be a three update kinda day. 😉

Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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