Daily Archives: October 15, 2017

Time posted: 4:57 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on today’s cold front and the longer range look for the end of the month.

The front continues to plow through the state with a few showers and thunderstorms out there…


Winds are gusting to 35-40mph at times and the temp drop is awesome to see. Readings drop into the upper 50s behind the front as it swings through.

That sets us up for a chilly few days ahead of us, with the potential for patchy frost to develop. The Hi Res NAM continues to be the coldest model I’ve seen…

The week ahead looks absolutely awesome with temps slowly warming into the 70-75 degree range by end of the week into the start of the weekend. A cold front may bring some showers and storms our way by Sunday into Monday.

From there, it’s all about a deepening trough likely to dig into the eastern part of the country for the week leading up to Halloween…

That happens as a ridge goes up the west coast of North America, while blocking develops near Greenland. That pushes cold air into the eastern half of the United States and can sometimes be introduced by a big storm. The GFS has been pointing toward this for a while…

This kind of setup has, at least, a chance to bring some flakes into the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian mountains. The GFS…

GFS Ensembles…

That’s still a long ways out, but the signal is certainly there for a cold setup. My analogs may be onto something.

I leave you with a Hurricane heading toward Ireland…

cone graphic

While it may be extra-tropical by the time it arrives, the impact will be the same. 100mph wind gusts are possible across Ireland. Yep… It’s that kinda weather year!

I will update things again tonight, so check back. Make t a good day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:31 am

Patchy Frost Threat Follows The Front

Good Sunday, everyone. A strong cold front is racing across Kentucky today, bringing gusty shower and thunderstorms our way. The bigger news is the chilly air coming in behind this boundary. Temps can get cold enough for some patchy frost to develop over the next couple of mornings.

Today’s showers and storms won’t be big rain makers, but can put down a quarter of an inch in several areas…


Winds are going to be very gusty today and could reach 30-35mph at times. The temperature drop is going to be pretty awesome to see and feel. Many of us start in the 70s and end with the 50s crashing in from northwest to southeast. By evening, readings are dropping into the 40s, setting the stage for a cold night.

The NAM has a few spots in the upper 30s by Monday morning…

Monday looks like a terrific fall day with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s…

Tuesday morning will likely see lows dropping into the mid and upper 30s for much of central and eastern Kentucky…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the colder valleys nearing the freezing mark, and the Hi Res Nam takes some areas below that…

Patchy frost is a good bet to start the day. The rest of Tuesday will see temps into the 60-65 degree range in the central and east, with higher numbers in the west. Tuesday night may also see some areas of frost developing.

The rest of the week looks awesome with temps returning to the 70s late in the week into the start of next weekend.



With a much colder pattern likely developing for the final week or so of October, many of the models continue to indicate some early season flake potential across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains.

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

Recent runs of the GFS have been showing this potential…

Obviously, those are way out there in fantasy land, but they do match some of the analog years I have come up with.

I may throw another update your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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