Daily Archives: October 16, 2017

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Madness

Good evening, gang. The overall pattern continues to evolve toward what we have been talking about on the blog for a few weeks now. It’s a very cold look taking shape next week into the early part of November, and it has a chance to throw some tricks our way before Halloween.

Speaking of cold, areas of frost are likely tonight as temps drop into the 30s for much of the state. Green thumbs are on high alert.

Regular readers know I’ve been talking about some of my analog years like 2013 and 1995. These were warm for the first half of October, then featured a quick change to cold and even threw some flakes in here before the month was over. It didn’t take long before the current pattern started throwing out clues it was going to try and go that route, and I’ve been showing you those for the past week.

As we get closer, the models are really starting to pick up on all this. Let’s watch the GFS run from this weekend to Halloween night…

That’s a very active and cold look to the model. We should see the first system impact our region with showers and storms late this weekend into early next week. That has a nice shot of cold coming in behind it by Tuesday…

That could bring the first flakes of the season to the high elevations along the Appalachian Mountains.

I’ve mentioned how a bigger trough would likely develop later next week and that those kinds of troughs are usually accompanied by a big storm. The GFS…

Now, that is likely too amped up, but you get the idea. It’s that shot of cold that we could get flakes flying into parts of the Ohio Valley.

The model then has another system digging in to end October…

The Canadian Model doesn’t go out as far as the GFS, but it’s singing a similar cold tune for the middle and end of next week…

Those temps are cccccold…

Buckle up, kids… The fun and games may get started early this winter.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:13 am

A Touch Of Frost Possible

Good Monday, everyone. We have a much colder setup across Kentucky as we kick off a brand new week. This chilly brand of air may produce some patchy frost out there over the next couple of mornings. I’ll focus on that and the end of the month pattern that will try to make things interesting.

Highs today are generally in the upper 50s across the central and east, with 60-65 in the west.

Clear skies, low humidity levels and light winds will team up to allow temps to drop into the upper 30s for many areas by Tomorrow morning. The colder valleys may drop into the low and middle 30s, leading to some frost on the pumpkins.

Tuesday looks awesome with highs in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. A few mid and upper 30s may show up again by Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week sees the amazing fall weather rolling on as temps slowly warm. We should be in the 70s into the start of the weekend, but a cold front likely crashes in from the west by Sunday or  Monday…

That’s an interesting setup with a decent front dropping in and an upper level low spinning to our southwest. Two things could happen with that… It could get swept up into our region… Or it could head into the Gulf and form some type of hybrid system.

Later next week into the closing days of October could feature a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country. This is something we have talked about for many days now, as the pattern favors this…

Another teleconnection for this deep eastern U.S. trough comes from the western Pacific. That’s where we have a typhoon being forecast to recurve…

At the same time, we see the PNA going positive and the NAO going negative…

A positive PNA sends a ridge up the western part of North America, allowing cold air to filter into the east. This graphic illustrates what I’m talking about…

The Negative NAO throws some blocking into the mix near Greenland, also helping to send colder air into the eastern half of the country.

Just how cold and how prolonged all this is remains to be seen, but winter weather loves have got to love the look of the pattern as we head closer to winter.

I will try to update things later today, so check back.

Make it a good Monday and take care.

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