Daily Archives: October 17, 2017

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We have another frosty night ahead of us for many areas, but the focus of the update is on the big change lurking for next week. It’s a change toward a much colder setup taking control for the end of October.

Our first system arrives later Sunday into Monday with an big increase in showers and thunderstorms. The European Model shows some heavy rains…

The European Model also shows a heck of a cold shot coming in behind that for Tuesday into Wednesday. This model run shows a clipper-like system diving into the region by the middle of the week…

The GFS is now very similar…

That could produce rain and snow for the Appalachian Mountains. Does that include the high ground across southeastern Kentucky? We will have to see.

That pushes away, with another cold shot coming at us at the end of the European run by next Friday…

Here’s a good animation showing those big dips in the Jetstream aimed right at us…

The European Ensembles through the end of October continue to show some flakes targeting the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains…

The GFS Ensembles are very similar…

There are a lot of variables at play over the next few weeks, so model chaos is likely. Let’s sit back and watch how it all plays out… That’s half the fun! 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:52 am

Interesting Weather Times Ahead

Good Tuesday to one and all.  We have a gorgeous fall week underway, with a chill in the air and sun in our sky. This nice pattern carries us into the start of the weekend, but changes start to show up after that. It’s a pattern that is threatening to take on an early winter look to end October.

Our Tuesday starts with a touch of frost out there, especially in the colder valleys. Afternoon temps reach the low and middle 60s.

Wednesday looks similar, with a bit of a warm up following that from Thursday through Saturday. Highs from 70-75 look common as we keep the sunshine.

Things begin to change quickly on Sunday as showers and thunderstorms work in from west to east. This is ahead of a healthy system that takes us into Monday…

Temps will take a huge drop as that system works through, but a follow up system delivers cold air by Tuesday…

The European Model is spot on with that…

That’s some real deal cold and could produce some flakes across the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s the animated view from Sunday through Tuesday…

The GFS Ensembles are seeing the Appalachian Mountain flake potential at the same time…

The setup following that will then feature a HUGE trough developing across the eastern half of the country. It’s one that can deliver frigid temps by October standards and the potential for some tricks before Halloween. The GFS continues to show this scenario later next week into the following weekend…

Here’s the animated version of that same particular run…

Now, I do not put a lot of stock in that “son of Sandy” solution being shown above. It’s the overall setup that I’m trying to illustrate. The pattern is can go very cold, which could deliver some flakes to the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show the flakes potential from later next week into the following weekend…

I’ve been talking more and more about a potential early start to winter. Many of my analogs have it and, obviously, we are seeing some of the medium range models seeing it. The seasonal models are also picking up on it. Check out the cold look into November on the CFS. These are 5 day averages…

Make it a great day and take care.

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