Daily Archives: October 22, 2017

Time posted: 4:17 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Your friendly weather dude is here and reporting for duty on a gorgeous fall day in the bluegrass state. Big changes are pushing in here over the next few days, as we get into a pattern that looks more like late November than late October.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the west this afternoon and evening. You will notice this action really increasing later in the evening as it comes from southwest to northeast…


Heavy rain and thunderstorms then quickly move in here tonight and Monday. This system is zipping along pretty good, so we may “only” get an inch or two of rain from this. Winds are going to crank as this low works on top of us, and will really crank Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air rushes in from the northwest…

Gusty showers will continue into Tuesday and a part of Wednesday. Flakes will likely fly in the high elevations to our east.

Temps on Tuesday drop into the upper 40s as the cold surges in. Readings on Wednesday may stay in the 40s for highs, with the NAM giving us the coldest look…

Gusty southwesterly winds will then kick in ahead of a much bigger surge of cold coming for the weekend. Friday will be an interesting day with a spike in temps, gusty winds, a line of showers and falling temps. The cold crashes in behind this into Saturday…

Notice how that model has the cold catching the back edge of the rain shield by Saturday evening. That would suggest the potential for some flakes…

That’s certainly a possibility, but it’s all about timing of the cold catching the precipitation. Just something fun to watch at this point.

Speaking of the cold…

Highs this weekend may stay in the upper 30s and low 40s with wind chill numbers showing up several degrees colder. We will be able to string together 3 or 4 mornings in a row of lows in the 20s.

This whole setup is showing that my analog years have some merit. For the past few weeks, I’ve talked about them pointing toward this type of late October pattern. Being able to see the teleconnections are proving valuable, too. From a recurving typhoon to the various indicies, this stuff has more value than simply regurgitating computer models.

I will see you guys later tonight for an update. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 2:26 am

A Cold End To October

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a lot of wind and rain on the way over the next few days, and this leads us into a much colder than normal pattern. Several cold shots are lining up to take aim at our region through early November. Can we get a touch of winter weather to go along with the cold? That’s a possibility.

Let us start with what’s going on out there today and roll forward.

Showers and thunderstorms increase across western Kentucky, and some of the rains can be heavy. Central and eastern parts of the state should stay mainly dry until the evening and overnight…


Low pressure is developing to our southwest today and rolls our way into Monday, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms our way. The models all show a general 1″-3″, but vary on placement of the highest totals…

NAM

GFS

Canadian

Gusty winds will usher in much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday. The northwesterly wind flow will also create some showers, especially in the central and east. The high mountains of the Appalachian Mountains to our east may pick up the first flakes of the season.

Temps by Wednesday and Thursday mornings may hit the freezing mark in some spots.

Milder winds will blow by Friday, ahead of a much stronger cold front sweeping in for the start of the weekend. Gusty rains will be likely along and ahead of this boundary…

That’s another good rain maker, helping add to our already robust October totals. It’s a month that may hit top ten wettest Octobers on record.

Watch the cold air crash in behind this front…

Can the cold temps catch the back edge of the rain shield, giving us a chance for a flake? Will that strong northwesterly flow be a flurry maker across parts of the region? Both of those questions are still several days away from being answered, but they are valid.

Thermometer readings behind our front drop into the upper 30s and low 40s and we may squeeze out a day or two where highs hang in that general vicinity. A hard freeze is likely with, at least, a few mornings deep into the 20s. We may even be talking about wind chills…

The Ensembles have been all over the colder pattern for a while now and they show it through early November…

They have also been throwing out the potential for some early season flakes in the Ohio Valley. The GFS Ensembles have grown even more bullish through the first week of November…

Again, I’m only showing these to illustrate the potential for some flakes to fly at some point in the next few weeks.

As we get into late fall and winter, one of the main indicies I look at is the EPO. When it goes negative, chances are our pattern turns colder. The current forecast through early November has a -EPO developing…

I will update things again later today, so check back. Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments