Daily Archives: October 23, 2017

Time posted: 3:00 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good Monday afternoon, folks. Heavy rain, gusty winds and falling temps continue to be the weather headlines of the day, but the cold is about to take center stage. It’s a pattern that continues to look much colder than normal to end October and begin November. I’m also watching for a bigger weekend system than currently shown on the models.

Many areas have already picked up 1″-2″ of rain, with some more to go. Low pressure continues to spin across the region, bringing gusty showers through the evening…


Temps are dropping through the 50s and into the 40s during the evening hours. Those numbers hang in the low 40s tonight with a recovery into the 50-55 degree range early on Tuesday, but colder air pushes in during the afternoon and evening. That can bring more showers in here…

The NAM continues to keep plenty of clouds around into Wednesday, thus keeping temps in the low and middle 40s…

If skies clear, readings will be closer to 50. Regardless, gusty winds will make it feel much colder.

Thursday starts in the low 30s with temps hitting the 60 by the afternoon. This will be ahead of a strong cold front showing up by late Friday. It will have a stout temperature drop of 20-30 degrees behind the front…

You can still see how the GFS is trying to get the cold to catch some of the precipitation shield, giving parts of the Ohio Valley a shot at a few flakes…

We know temps are going to be cold this weekend as a deep trough digs in…

Notice the storm system along the east coast. That’s from the GFS and it sometimes is too far east with this type of system. This system may actually have a bit of a tropical connection from a disturbance coming from the Caribbean and up the east coast.

The trend on the European Model is for much more interaction between the cold trough and that system coming up the east coast…

The European Model would be a VERY nasty weekend with cold temps, gusty rains, with the potential for some flakes to fly… Especially in the mountains of eastern Kentucky. That could be a big high mountain snow maker across the Appalachian Mountains. We will need to watch for a western trend in the coming days.

You can see a similar trend  on the Canadian, which is also more wrapped up and farther west with it than the GFS…

I may throw out another update this evening. If not, I’ll see you for our normal late night date. 🙂

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:10 am

Tracking Heavy Rain and A Cold Pattern

Good Monday, folks. A fast-moving storm system is rolling right on top of the region today, bringing heavy rain and a few thunderstorms. This system will help usher in a much colder setup for the rest of the week, with the potential for additional cold shots to round out October and kick off November.

Today’s rains move through here pretty quickly, dropping a good inch or two for several areas. The heaviest rains will be centered on the first half of the day in the west, with the east getting the main action this afternoon and evening…


Winds are going to be very gusty as temps drop from northwest to southeast. Readings start the day in the 60s and drop into the 50s late in the day.

The real chill arrives Tuesday with temps dropping from the 50s to the 40s in the afternoon and evening. Northwesterly winds will produce scattered showers that hang around into Wednesday. Some of those may be in the form of flakes in the high ground to our east.

Temps on Wednesday will be from 50-55 in the west to 45-50 for the central and east. Gusty winds will make it feel even chillier. Temps by Thursday morning head toward the freezing mark.

Temps rebound later Thursday into early Friday as winds gust up from the southwest. This is ahead of a strong cold front moving in later in the day on Friday. The models are now speeding up the arrival time of the front, with crashing temps Friday afternoon and evening…

The faster movement of the front doesn’t allow it to pick up as much moisture as earlier runs. Still, the cold catches the back edge of the shower shield. The GFS shows a few flakes in the east Friday night…

The GFS now shows a winter looking system diving in quickly by Saturday night into Sunday…

With cold air in place, look at what we have here…

This is something the Ensembles have been showing us for a while now, and they continue to have a decent signal for some flakes…

The cold this weekend into early next week is also impressive for this time of year…

This is also a STRONG northwesterly wind bringing the cold into town…

Wind chill maps will likely make their first appearance of the season over the next week.

Actual air temps will drop deep into the 20s for a few mornings in a row. Some of the models take us into the lower 20s…

I will hook you up with another update or two later today, so check back.

Enjoy your rainy Monday and take care.

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