Daily Archives: October 25, 2017

Time posted: 8:04 pm

Watching the Weekend System

Good evening, gang. We continue to see watch a stout cold front working toward the bluegrass state to kick off the upcoming weekend. It’s a front that can bring a small taste of winter to parts of our region. “Small” being the key word in all this.

The front arrives into western Kentucky on Friday and rolls eastward Friday night and Saturday. Winds will be gusty from the southwest ahead of this with temps in the 60s. Readings drop into the 30s behind the front as heavy rain breaks out.

Wind gusts will be very gusty as the front rolls in and may top 30-35mph at times…

Heavy rain will be along and behind the front with some areas picking up an inch of rainfall.

What about the chance for some snow or a mix behind the front? That’s still in question, but the NAM keeps on keeping on with the potential Friday night and Saturday morning…

The GFS continues to want no part of this, keeping mostly rain around…

The European Model has some mix showing up for a few spots…

If we are to see a few flakes mixing in with the rain, here’s the area I’ve highlighted as having the best opportunity to see that…

Flakes, folks, just a few flakes trying to mix in. Got it? Good. 🙂

The precipitation moves to the east during the afternoon, with drying conditions taking over. Temps hover into the low 40s with gusty winds making it feel even colder. I could see a sprinkle or passing flurry around Saturday evening with temps dropping through the 30s.

A light rain shower is possible Sunday into Sunday evening with highs in the low and middle 40s. A wet flake or two tries to mix in across the southeast.

This cold air mass for the weekend will then be followed up by another cold shot by Halloween. You can see that well on the GFS…

Here’s the European with a similar look…

It will be interesting to see if we can get some kind of storm system around Halloween or the first day of November. There’s so much going on in the atmosphere, the models are struggling to keep up. Two recurving western Pacific typhoons will do that.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Wednesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to talk about the upcoming weekend setup. We have a few models producing some snowflakes around here and a few keeping it as a cold rain. Are either of them right? Does the truth lie somewhere in between? Why ask why? 🙂

Before we get to all that mess, we have a system diving in from the northwest today, bringing a few showers our way…

Temps remain chilly on a gusty northwesterly winds. The high mountains along the Virginia border may still be able to squeeze out a few flaks from this system later tonight.

The arrival time of our strong cold front for the weekend is speeding up. It’s looking more and more like we get in on a 30+ temperature swing from west to east later Friday as the front moves in. The NAM shows this huge drop…

The NAM continues to be the fastest model with the cold air surging in from the west. Given the fact that much of the precipitation is along and behind the front. it makes sense that the model keeps showing a switch to some light snow Friday night and Saturday morning in the west and central parts of the state…

On the other side of the spectrum, the GFS isn’t quite as cold as the NAM, and is a bit slower with the arrival of it. That keeps much of the precipitation in the form of rain, with just a few flakes mixing in on the back edge…

Knowing a little bit about the biases of each model, the truth is likely somewhere between these solutions. The NAM usually handles low-level cold temps better than the GFS, but can be too aggressive. Even if we split the difference, we may be able to get some wet flakes flying in some areas late Friday night and Saturday morning.

Most of the precipitation ends by Saturday evening, as temps drop into the 30s on a gusty northwesterly wind. That wind may touch off  a few rain showers on Sunday, possibly mixing with a flake or two. That keeps showing up on the GFS…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4, and will try to throw another update your way this evening.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:36 am

Watching The Weekend Setup

Good Wednesday, folks. For a few weeks, I’ve been pounding the drum on a colder than normal weather pattern taking shape for the end of October into early November. That pattern is here, and now it’s time to see what else it  can throw at us.

We had a touch of sleet and graupel on Tuesday, marking our first taste of winter type precipitation. Can this pattern give us some actual snowflake action over the next week?  Maybe. I’ve thrown around some of my analog years that spit out a few flakes before Halloween, so it has happened before.

Let’s start with today’s stuff and roll forward. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with highs mainly upper 40s and low 50s. The numbers will vary greatly based on the clouds and sun doing a little tango in the sky. A system diving in from the northwest can throw a shower or two our way this afternoon and evening…


There is a small chance for some flakes to fly in the highest mountains along the Virginia border later tonight.

Temps by Thursday morning will make a run at freezing across central and eastern Kentucky. The rest of Thursday looks good with highs making a run at 60.

The interesting part of the forecast comes late Friday into the weekend. A strong cold front moves in from the west late Friday into early Saturday. Temps ahead of this will surge deep into the 60s and may flirt with 70 in the far east. Gusty showers will also develop along and behind our front.

Behind the front, temps will drop in a huge, huge, way. The NAM drops the temps quickly into the 30s with rain changing to a period of light snow behind the front Friday night across parts of western and central Kentucky…

That’s a fine line we are walking on whether or not the cold can catch the back edge of the rain shield. Many models were showing this a few days ago, but backed off some recently. The NAM only goes through Friday night, but is showing the cold catching up.

It’s not alone. The Short Range Ensembles Forecast (SREF) also shows the switch to some flakes in the same areas as the NAM Friday night…

The GFS isn’t quite as robust with the cold, but is showing a few flakes mixing in on the back side of the rain shield late Friday night…

The GFS Ensembles show a little more real coverage for areas possibly seeing some Friday night and Saturday morning flakes…

The GFS then brings some wraparound moisture in here on Sunday, with the potential for a few flakes trying to mix in across the eastern half of the state.

Does any of this mean you will see some flakes where you live this weekend? Of course not, but there is, at least, a chance it happens. Again… it’s not even Halloween, so the fact we are talking about having a chance is pretty cool.

This whole cold setup comes courtesy of a well telegraphed signal from the various indices and a recurving western Pacific Super Typhoon named LAN. I made a post on this more than a week ago, describing how it had similarities to a system around this same time of year back in 2014. That system turned into a mega storm as it worked toward Alaska…

Look where Ex-Lan is right now…

The 2014 system went on to help jumpstart a record cold November for parts of our region. That’s not to say this November will follow a similar path, but it makes you wonder how much of an impact Lan can have on the overall pattern.

The short-term impact is pretty clear this weekend with blocking over the top and a cold trough into our region…

There will likely be another cold system to deal with early next week. That shows up well on the GFS…

Something else to consider for the following week is another recurving western Pacific typhoon…

We shall see how all this shakes out over the next few weeks. It’s very, very, very early in the winter weather game. Heck… the game hasn’t even started, yet. 🙂

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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