Daily Archives: October 25, 2017

Time posted: 8:04 pm

Watching the Weekend System

Good evening, gang. We continue to see watch a stout cold front working toward the bluegrass state to kick off the upcoming weekend. It’s a front that can bring a small taste of winter to parts of our region. “Small” being the key word in all this.

The front arrives into western Kentucky on Friday and rolls eastward Friday night and Saturday. Winds will be gusty from the southwest ahead of this with temps in the 60s. Readings drop into the 30s behind the front as heavy rain breaks out.

Wind gusts will be very gusty as the front rolls in and may top 30-35mph at times…

Heavy rain will be along and behind the front with some areas picking up an inch of rainfall.

What about the chance for some snow or a mix behind the front? That’s still in question, but the NAM keeps on keeping on with the potential Friday night and Saturday morning…

The GFS continues to want no part of this, keeping mostly rain around…

The European Model has some mix showing up for a few spots…

If we are to see a few flakes mixing in with the rain, here’s the area I’ve highlighted as having the best opportunity to see that…

Flakes, folks, just a few flakes trying to mix in. Got it? Good. 🙂

The precipitation moves to the east during the afternoon, with drying conditions taking over. Temps hover into the low 40s with gusty winds making it feel even colder. I could see a sprinkle or passing flurry around Saturday evening with temps dropping through the 30s.

A light rain shower is possible Sunday into Sunday evening with highs in the low and middle 40s. A wet flake or two tries to mix in across the southeast.

This cold air mass for the weekend will then be followed up by another cold shot by Halloween. You can see that well on the GFS…

Here’s the European with a similar look…

It will be interesting to see if we can get some kind of storm system around Halloween or the first day of November. There’s so much going on in the atmosphere, the models are struggling to keep up. Two recurving western Pacific typhoons will do that.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Wednesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to talk about the upcoming weekend setup. We have a few models producing some snowflakes around here and a few keeping it as a cold rain. Are either of them right? Does the truth lie somewhere in between? Why ask why? 🙂

Before we get to all that mess, we have a system diving in from the northwest today, bringing a few showers our way…

Temps remain chilly on a gusty northwesterly winds. The high mountains along the Virginia border may still be able to squeeze out a few flaks from this system later tonight.

The arrival time of our strong cold front for the weekend is speeding up. It’s looking more and more like we get in on a 30+ temperature swing from west to east later Friday as the front moves in. The NAM shows this huge drop…

The NAM continues to be the fastest model with the cold air surging in from the west. Given the fact that much of the precipitation is along and behind the front. it makes sense that the model keeps showing a switch to some light snow Friday night and Saturday morning in the west and central parts of the state…

On the other side of the spectrum, the GFS isn’t quite as cold as the NAM, and is a bit slower with the arrival of it. That keeps much of the precipitation in the form of rain, with just a few flakes mixing in on the back edge…

Knowing a little bit about the biases of each model, the truth is likely somewhere between these solutions. The NAM usually handles low-level cold temps better than the GFS, but can be too aggressive. Even if we split the difference, we may be able to get some wet flakes flying in some areas late Friday night and Saturday morning.

Most of the precipitation ends by Saturday evening, as temps drop into the 30s on a gusty northwesterly wind. That wind may touch off  a few rain showers on Sunday, possibly mixing with a flake or two. That keeps showing up on the GFS…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4, and will try to throw another update your way this evening.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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