Monthly Archives: November 2017

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Update On The Big Changes

Good evening, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward a major pattern change coming early next week. The transition period looks fun, with the potential for a prolonged period of harsh winter weather for much of the country to follow.

There really isn’t much change in my overall thoughts on where the pattern is going. This thing has been set in stone for a while now. The only questions are, how cold can it get and how much snow can the pattern produce?

The GFS keeps with the theme of heavy rain and storms on Tuesday, with a major drop in temps Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some flakes showing up…

Here’s the model showing the switch from thunderstorms to snow in just a few hours…

I’m not sold on that exact scenario playing out, but there is certainly a possibility.

The European Model is giving me a different look with each run. I expect all the models to do just that in the coming days because this is a pretty extreme pattern shaping up.

The Euro takes the front through a little quicker Tuesday night and brings some light snows in here for Wednesday…

The model then doesn’t know what system to focus on from Friday through Sunday, but produces some rounds of light snows in that DEEP trough…

The GFS keeps putting more emphasis on a potent clipper diving in…

And keeps showing another right behind that…

If we get true clippers in this type of pattern, those things can really overachieve.

As the blocking pattern continues into the middle of the month, watch how the arctic cold keeps reloading and diving in here…

Extreme options in all modes are on the table going forward.

It took until just hours before December starts, but the CPC is finally on board with a colder than normal month…

I will see you later tonight for an update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. It’s a gloomy day in the bluegrass state, with clouds and scattered showers working through here. Today’s shower chance is what the focus of this update is all about. I mean, that’s all you guys are wanting to know, right? I kid, I kid. The focus continues to be on our massive pattern change just a few days away.

The change takes place early next week and will be fun to watch. We go from 60s and thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday, to 20s and the potential for snows flying Tuesday night and Wednesday. That kicks off a prolonged period of winter weather engulfing much of the country.

This initial system early in the week continues to look stout. Watch how the Canadian makes the transition from thunderstorms to snows in just a few hours…

You can also see a light snow system following that up.

The GFS looks similar to the Canadian with the thunderstorms to snow chance, but also cranks out a big storm along the east coast…

Here’s a better look at the GFS transition from storms to snowflakes for Tuesday night and Wednesday…

Can we actually go from heavy rain and storms to a period of light snow? Absolutely we can. Does that mean we will? Of course not, but it’s on the table.

The GFS then brings arctic snows in here from next Friday through Sunday…

My goodness that’s a cold look. The model throws more our way a few days after that…

Winter weather lovers have got to be absolutely loving the upcoming pattern!

I will have another update later today. Make it a fantastic Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

A Heck Of A Winter Setup Ahead

Good Thursday to one and all. A cold front is bringing a few showers to the state today, but this is nothing compared to what’s coming next week. Our much ballyhooed pattern change to winter is on the way, and the setup continues to advertise an extreme look across the country.

Before we get to the winter part of the program, let’s track a few showers from west to east…

Temps behind this front will only drop into the upper 40s and low 50s for Friday highs. That’s actually about normal for day one of December.

Milder air presses back in this weekend as we keep a partly sunny sky.

Let’s make sure to soak it up because a massive change blows in here early next week. A MAJOR blocking event is unfolding in the high latitudes into the North Pole. This will force arctic shots of air to dive into the country.

The front that gets the ball rolling moves in with showers and a few thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday…

Temps spike deep into the 60s ahead of the front, then crash behind it, with the coldest air arriving on Wednesday. The GFS has some light snows brushing the region…

The European has the same system, but is just a little stronger with it…

That’s just the beginning of what may eventually become headline making cold across the country. Watch how these arctic shots just reload and come at us over the next two weeks…

It’s amazing to see how stable that extreme pattern becomes. These arctic cold shots will grow colder with each passing one, as we lay down a snowpack across the country.

Each of these shots may also be accompanied by snow chances around here. The GFS is off to the races with these snow systems from the northwest. The model has 2 different ones diving in here from next Friday through Sunday…

Here comes another a few days later…

And a few days after that…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 7:34 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on a dramatic change to winter weather coming our way next week. This is one of the colder December looks I’ve seen in many years for the country, and it’s likely to stick around for a while.

As we inch closer to the pattern change of next week, we will start to focus more on individual systems showing up on the operational models. That said, operational models show a lot of variance from run to run, so we have to be mindful of that.

Let’s look at how the European Model brings the cold in with a front and wave of low pressure along it Tuesday and early Wednesday…

Just like the Canadian and earlier GFS runs, the European model has some snow behind the front…

Cold air then overwhelms the pattern for the end of next week. The European Model then takes the trough and goes crazy with a system digging in from the north. Check this thing out…

With the European Model digging this thing sooooo far south, it develops a huge storm coming out of the Gulf late next week…

Given the upper levels on the European Model, that system would get thrown back west,

Again, it’s way, way, way, way too early to get too caught up in individual snow threats. However, I do expect several snow chances through December and expect the month to finish above the normal.

The GFS Ensembles continue to grow more confident in snow chances over the next 2 weeks…

Look at how far south the snow chance goes… That’s the power of arctic cold shots lined up over the next several weeks.

Let me say this… Some extreme options are on the table for December.

I will see you guys tonight for the normal update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Update On Next Week

Good afternoon, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward a full-blown winter pattern developing next week, with the potential for this pattern to get downright nasty in the coming weeks. It’s been a well telegraphed pattern, that gets stronger looking as we get closer.

I’m not going to rehash all my thoughts from the past few weeks in how this pattern comes about. Feel free to go back and read all the prior posts dealing with the evolution. 🙂

It looks like we start the change on Monday with showers and storms increasing ahead of a potent cold front. Temps ahead of this front will likely surge well into the 60s on a very gusty southwesterly wind.

The question then becomes, do we get a wave of low pressure to develop along the front? The pattern argues for that and recent runs of the Canadian and GFS models have shown this. If we get that wave to develop, it could give us our first snow chance by Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Here’s the Canadian…

6z GFS

Snow or not  behind that front, the cold air crashes in with a 40 degree temp drop looking likely.

The European Model has been all over a system diving in from the northwest by later Thursday and Friday. The GFS is also showing this…

That could be a snow maker across the Ohio Valley, if it is indeed a real feature. Temps during this time will continue to drop as arctic air pours in.

The GFS wind chill map late next week…

If we continue to look at just the upper levels, we find a pattern that’s reminiscent of some of the great winters of the past. High latitude blocking forces all the arctic cold from the North Pole and Canada, deep into the United States. Watch how this pattern keeps repeating itself over the next 2 weeks…

I told you last night you would start hearing the term Polar Vortex. Right on cue.. I see it all over twitter this morning. 😉

I will have another update this evening and on WKYT starting at 4pm. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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