Daily Archives: November 2, 2017

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, boys and girls. We are putting the wraps on a very mild and windy day across Kentucky. Now, we track a cold front into the region, with an increase in showers and storms. This kicks off another wet pattern, but colder changes keep showing up for later next week.

Tonight’s showers and storms increase from the west and northwest and will take us into Friday. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible…

Temps will drop across the northern half of the state as the day wears on. That front puts the brakes on and lifts back to the north on Saturday with scattered showers and storms around. Temps will continue to run mild, with very gusty winds.

Temps by Sunday spike deep into the 70s with strong southwesterly winds. This is ahead of a strong cold front that may be producing severe storms just to our north and west. The SPC is already highlighting much of the Ohio Valley in a severe threat…

Those storms will then move in here Sunday night and early Monday…

Some strong storms and gusty winds are possible around here on Monday. The actual cold front slows down just to our south, allowing for rounds of heavy rain to develop and roll across the state into Tuesday and Wednesday…

Notice how the colder air is pressing farther and farther south on each run, making for chillier rains. The below normal temps really show up well by the middle of the week on the European…

The GFS Ensembles agree…

There is a TREMENDOUS buildup of cold air across Canada, just itching to come south. As we get closer… You’re seeing the models now growing colder for next week. These cold shots will likely show up stronger and stronger in the coming week and change.

The models are already looking colder for next weekend. Here’s the European Model…

The European Ensembles control run is frigid…

In looking at the pattern, let’s see if we can get out next snow chance in that 10 day run up to Thanksgiving. My analogs are just a little after Thanksgiving, but the pattern seems to be running a little ahead of that. 🙂

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:13 am

Active Pattern Continues To Show Up

Good Thursday, everyone. We are dealing with a very mild and busy weather pattern taking shape across our part of the world. This setup means rounds of some showers and storms, with a heavy rain threat next week. That happens when colder air tries to crash in.

Let us begin with the precious present and roll forward.

Highs today may hit 70 or a little better for areas getting in on some sunshine. For the rest, it’s ONLY mid and upper 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. We could also see a scattered shower or storm around…

Showers and storms increase on Friday as a weak front gets into the region. That front puts the brakes on and goes back to the north over the weekend, allowing for the very mild setup to continue. Scattered showers and storms will also be back with us, but we will see many dry times. Sunday’s temps may surge deep into the 70s.

A stronger cold front moves in with a stout line of showers and storms for Monday. Strong to severe storms are a possibility late Sunday into Monday across the Ohio Valley.

That front then checks up, allowing for rounds of showers and storms to roll eastward through the region. That may give us quite a bit of rain during this time.

Watch how the Canadian handles this…

That also unleashes cold air late next week into the following weekend…

Notice how well that matches up with the latest 5 day temperature forecast anomalies from the CFS for November 8-13…

 

That same model run has a bounce back for a few days, then brings another big surge of cold in for by Thanksgiving week…

It then shows the cold taking hold as we begin December…

The CFS keeps showing what everything else is pointing to, a very active storm track for our region. Check out precipitation totals through early December…

I’ll hook you up with another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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