Daily Archives: November 3, 2017

Time posted: 7:43 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Thunderstorms rumbled across the state this morning and we have more on the way in the coming days. By Sunday night and early Monday, we will need to be on guard for a few strong or severe storms, with another heavy rain maker following that up, as we transition to colder.

Our cold front is slowing down on top of us right now and will return northward as a warm front. A scattered shower or storm is possible out there this evening…

Scattered storms will be noted on Saturday as temps spike into the upper 60s and low 70s for many areas. Winds will be gusty and those winds will continue to increase on Sunday. This is going to be a very active weather day across the Ohio Valley.

For some time now, I’ve mentioned my analog set pointing toward a fall severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley. Well, here it comes…

That could be a nasty outbreak just to our north, and I’m increasingly concerned we could get in on some severe weather Sunday night. We may end up seeing all modes of severe weather north of us Sunday afternoon, with that all coming together into a strong to severe line of storms. That line should move in here Sunday night into Monday morning…

The Canadian

The GFS…

That front stalls out on top of us, allowing heavy rain to develop Monday night into Tuesday…

Much colder air then sinks in behind this for the rest of the week. The GFS Ensembles keep trending colder…

The European Ensembles are also much colder…

This is a pattern where the cold shots will likely keep showing stronger as we get closer. I’ve mentioned how there is a ton of cold air available and that’s something we have NOT seen the past few winters, and have not seen this early in the season since back in 2010.

The Canadian Model just went nuclear with the cold late next weekend…

It also does this…

That’s probably not happening next weekend, but it’s something I think can happen before this month is over.

Speaking of later this month, I will share some new seasonal data for the rest of November into December. It matches my analogs and overall thought process. 😉

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 3:02 am

A Temp Fight Shaping Up Next Week

Good Friday, folks. It’s the first weekend of November, but it’s looking and feeling more like the first weekend of October. Thermometer readings will run well above normal as we track scattered rain chances. The focus on the forecast is on a big temp fight taking shape next week.

We have a cold front slowing down across Kentucky today. Showers and storms are along and ahead of the boundary, with the bulk of the rains coming during the first half of the day. Some drying skies take place this afternoon and evening with temps mainly in the 60s. Those numbers will drop some during the afternoon and evening.

The front returns to the north as a warm front on Saturday with scattered showers and storms around. Temps hit the low 70s south, with middle 60s in the far north.

Sunday will be super duper windy with gusts of 30mph possible. Temps will steal the show, one week after snow. Highs are deeeep into the 70s for the entire state. Severe weather is likely to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley later Sunday, ahead of a strong cold front.

That line of storms will get in here Sunday night and early Monday, with the potential for strong storms…

Winds will be a big player into Monday as the front slows down.

That front stalls out on top of the region into the middle of the week, with waves of low pressure riding along it. The first wave rolls through here with rain Monday night and Tuesday…

You can clearly see how the colder air is pressing in from the north and northwest. If not, here’s a little better look…

Another system then rolls eastward Wednesday into Thursday, but the models are having a tougher time figuring out how to deal with this. The European Model shows some chilly rains…

Another cold air mass shoots into the northern half of the country by next weekend…

All this cold is going to be a force to be reckoned with later this month into December. Some fun December analogs have been showing up for a long time and they continue to do so as we get closer.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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