Daily Archives: November 4, 2017

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I promised to drop by for an update and that’s exactly what I’m doing. Don’t let it be said I’m not a man of my word… Most of the time. 🙂

It’s a busy setup and I’ve got a lot of maps to share, so let’s get after it.

Scattered showers and storms are out there this evening, but we aren’t seeing a big coverage of the action…

Sunday is a very warm and windy one, with a severe weather outbreak just to our north. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC…

All of that congeals into a line of strong to severe storms that sweeps in here Sunday night and early Monday…

We will need to be on guard for some damaging winds, especially in the north.

That front then stops across southern Kentucky, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it Monday night and Tuesday. That system should be able to produce a swath of very heavy rains across the state…

As that low passes east on Tuesday afternoon, temps crash from northwest to southeast…

The rest of the week is seasonably cold with the potential for additional showers as systems skirt by just to our south. One of those may still try to develop into something a little bigger.

The next system works in here for the weekend and early next week, with the Canadian being the deepest and coldest of the bunch…

The European Model keeps trending stronger with this system and is just a little colder than before…

It will be interesting to watch the trends for that system as we get closer to next weekend.

The European Ensembles did a great job in giving us a 2 week heads up to the late October snowflake potential, and they are saying “heads up” over the next 2 weeks…

Last night, I posted the longer range European Ensembles showing a cold setup for early December. The latest run of the CFS shows a similar setup…

I’ll see you guys back here later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:45 am

Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night

Good Saturday, everyone. We are dealing with a fairly warm and windy weekend, but it’s all eyes on a big temperature drop into next week. To get to that point, we have a wet and stormy price to pay, and some of those storms may be strong Sunday night.

Let’s begin with the mild air we have out there today. A warm front is lifting northward through the state, allowing temps to take off yet again. Highs range from the mid 60s in the north to the low 70s in the south with the chance for a few showers and storms to go up…

Temperatures for Sunday will be pretty darn warm with many thermometers deep into the 70s. Winds will also be very gusty and could reach 30mph or greater. I can’t rule out a scattered storm, with much of the daytime action will be just to our north and west. That’s where a big time severe weather outbreak is likely…

All modes of severe weather are possible in those areas. All of that will likely congeal into a line of strong to severe storms that races into Kentucky Sunday night and Monday morning…

Damaging winds would be the primary player in that setup.

The front then stalls out across southern Kentucky, allowing for waves of low pressure to develop and roll eastward. This can deliver rounds of rain through the middle of the week, with the potential to carry us into late week…

Much colder air takes control for the middle and end of the week.

We should have a bit of a bounce back to follow that up, but it’s interesting to watch the Canadian throw a big storm system into the Midwest and Great Lakes, unleashing heart of winter temps behind it…

Looking farther down the road, the long range European Ensembles are showing a typical back and forth temperature pattern for the rest of November, but is now going all in on a colder setup for early December…

That’s actually a very cold look for an Ensembles mean from this far out.

The model continues to show a super active precipitation setup across our region through the first week and change of December…

With that much precipitation, it would be safe to assume the ensembles are picking up on some snow threats, right? You are correct…

This matches a lot of my analog years going forward. These are the same analogs that have been on fire from the tropical impacts we have had, to our recent October snow, to the upcoming severe threat. Will they keep it rolling into the winter months? We will soon find out.

By the way, the winter forecast comes out November 16th, so spread the word. I will keep dropping some nuggets leading up to it.

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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