Daily Archives: November 12, 2017

Time posted: 6:44 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a dreary day wrapping up, as scattered showers continue to work across the region. This action scoots away tonight, but a very active pattern is about to settle in here later this week into Thanksgiving week.

Here’s regional radar to track the light showers…

We have cold fronts moving our way every couple of days with the next one arriving Wednesday. That will a little more widespread stuff compared to today, but the focus is on the Friday-Saturday storm system. This one has the looks of a big time wind maker across our region, and may even throw some strong storms our way…

A big temps spike ahead of that front will be followed by a big temp drop being it. The real cold lags just behind the front and arrives Saturday night and Sunday…

If we can get a true northwesterly wind to develop Sunday or Sunday night, then some flakes will be possible. Some of the recent models have been showing this possibility…

That may be a huge lake effect outbreak following this storm.

The various operational models will have the usual wild swings on how the pattern looks. You will see big changes from run to run, because that’s what operational models do from this far out. The Ensembles are made up of dozens of individual runs, spitting out the average from each. Granted, the data is smoothed out, but it’s a good indication of where the pattern goes.

The GFS ensembles show a healthy cold shot late this weekend, with cold digging in for Thanksgiving week…

Those same “smoothed out” ensembles are also showing flake chances late this weekend through Thanksgiving weekend…

Even individual runs of the operational members show the wintry potential from time to time. The GFS shows this for Thanksgiving…

The Canadian is also showing some wintry potential in the lead up to Thanksgiving…

 

Find some analogs, forecast the pattern and watch the trends, don’t just regurgitate what one run of one model says. Unfortunately, this is becoming a lost art amongst forecasters. Sigh

I will have a full blown super-duper update later tonight, so check back.. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:14 am

Tracking A Super Active Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. The weather pattern for the upcoming week is about to kick it up a notch or ten. We have several systems to track, including the potential for a late week severe weather maker. This leads us into a much more winter looking setup as we turkey roll our way into Thanksgiving week.

Today will feature lots of clouds with scattered showers developing from west to east. This action isn’t overly impressive, but looks like a nuisance rain this afternoon and evening. Track away on regional radar…

Clouds will linger into Monday with seasonally chilly temps.

Another cold front quickly approaches the state by Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will have more widespread rains than what we have out there today, but the totals will diminish the farther east it gets…

From there, it’s time to focus on a big storm system working into the region Friday into Friday night. This system will have a temp spike ahead of it, with a temp crash behind it. Winds are going to be VERY gusty and we face the potential for storms…

Cold winds have a chance to catch up to the back edge of the departing rains, and that may be something for us to keep an eye on. A blast of winter air follows for the weekend…

The European Model continues to show massive blocking developing in all the right places if you want winter weather in the eastern half of the country…

That’s pretty amazing to see at any time of the year, let alone in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. The end result on the same run of the European Model is to bring another cold blast in here early Thanksgiving week…

If that setup does develop, some winter threats may also come calling into the eastern half of the country.

The GFS Ensembles agree with the overall theme of the European Model. Watch the cold shot next weekend and the one that carries us into Thanksgiving week/weekend…

This upcoming week is winter weather week on WKYT-TV, with my winter forecast coming Thursday during the 6pm news. Nothing wrong with a shameless plug. 🙂

Speaking of winter, it’s interesting to see the new seasonal run of the European Model. The height anomalies (not temperature) show a front loaded winter with a healthy trough across our part of the world…

You can clearly see how the trough pulls back west, allowing a big ridge to develop across the east and southeast. Taken verbatim, that’s a colder than normal December and January with a warmer than normal February and March.

Precipitation anomalies increase with each passing month…

That’s a healthy signal for a ton of precipitation around here and is something I have already touched on countless times before.

The European is saying we have nice run of winter weather for December and January, but show an abrupt end to that for February and March. This run would argue for heavy rain and strong storms threats during this time.

I can neither confirm nor deny that the above model is close to my own winter forecast. 😉

Another update comes your way later today, so check back. Have a great Sunday.

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