Daily Archives: November 13, 2017

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. It’s a dreary and chilly day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. This seasonal brand of chill holds tough for much of the week, but big changes are in store for the weekend. A huge storm system will cause some issues in our region, before a winter looking pattern settles in.

Before we get to those big changes, we have a cold front to deal with on Wednesday. This front will bring more chilly rains to the region through early Thursday. This will be a little heavier and more widespread than our Sunday front…

Temps behind this front will take a bit of a dip again for Thursday. Highs from the NAM show this well…

From there, it’s all eyes on the big weekend storm system. The GFS now seems to have a very good handle on the evolution of this bad boy…

That’s trending more toward the Canadian Model in terms of intensity and the winds behind it.

Behind that weekend storm system, northwesterly winds MAY try to produce a few flakes around here into early next week. The exact wind direction will come into play on this, but it’s something to watch for. The GFS ensembles show this potential…

 

The GFS then shows our next plunge of cold coming Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week…

The GFS Ensembles have been very consistent on the weekend cold leading us into a very cold Thanksgiving week. Check out the temperature anomalies through the holiday weekend…

The same model run does show an increase in the flake potential during the same time…

I will see you guys tonight for another update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:08 pm

Midday Monday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the late week storm system taking aim at our region. I’ve been prepping you guys on the possibility for this being a headline making event, and my thoughts have not changed.

The Storm Prediction Center is now on board with our thought about the strong to severe storms potential. Here’s their outlook for later Friday…

That may focus farther east in time.

The GFS continues to come around to a deeper and slower moving storm system….

It cuts that system off across southern Canada and the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday…

Watch for that to correct a little farther south and west with future runs. The model is also finally seeing the tremendous amount of cold behind it…

The Canadian Model continues to show a monster storm…

The flow from the Canadian is one that would actually bring snow showers our way Sunday into Monday…

Here are the highlights of what the weekend may mean for us..

  • Strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into early Saturday morning
  • Wind gusts may reach 50mph at times, even without thunderstorms
  • Temps crash behind the front
  • Sunday into Monday looks very cold with the chance for some areas to not hit freezing.
  • Single digit wind chills are possible at times
  • A few flurries or snow showers may end the weekend, depending on the exact wind flow from the northwest

None of this includes another winter looking setup for Thanksgiving week. That could be just as cold and produce some flakes.

I will update things later today and have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4. Enjoy your Monday.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Active Pattern Leads Into A Winter Looking Setup

Good Monday, everyone. We have a supercharged pattern taking shape later this week and that looks to kick start a winter looking pattern by the weekend. That winter looking pattern should continue into Thanksgiving week, with cold turkey looking more and more likely.

Let’s start with the short term and roll forward. Clouds will be stubborn out there today, with a seasonal chill in the air. This will likely carry us into Tuesday, too.

A weak cold front drops in here on Wednesday, bringing more showers to the region….

There’s a little dip in temps coming in behind that into Thursday.

From there, get ready for a monster of a storm system to take aim at the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This storm is likely to become a headline maker as it does so.

We find the usual issues with the operational models. From exact placement, strength and timing, they all vary, but they agree on a big storm.

The GFS is the most progressive of the models because that’s a well known bias of this model…

Even on the ‘progressive’ GFS, that’s one heck of a storm.

The European Model is a little slower and deeper…

The Canadian Model shows a monster winding up in the Great Lakes…

The model keeps that storm spinning across the Great Lakes and into the northeast into early next week, with northwesterly winds cranking behind it. That kicks off the lake effect snow machine and even tries to bring some flakes into our region.

So what could this weekend system mean for our weather?

A big temp spike is likely ahead of this system on Friday with showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day into Friday night. Some of those could be strong. This system also has the look of a high wind maker. I could see 40-50mph gusts as this thing wraps up Friday night.

Temps would then crash behind it on a strong northwesterly wind. Even colder air works in Saturday night and Sunday. If we can get a true northwesterly wind, a few flakes would be possible.

This should be followed by another push of cold air for Thanksgiving week. The GFS Ensembles keep showing the colder than normal setup through Thanksgiving weekend…

That next blast of cold next week may also include the chance for some flakes. The GFS Ensembles like our chances to see, at least, some flakes over the next 10 days…

Updates will come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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