Daily Archives: November 14, 2017

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on the busy weather pattern taking shape for the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that throws several systems our way, with more of a winter look coming late this weekend into Thanksgiving week.

Let’s start with the rain coming in for Wednesday. As we get closer to the front arriving, rain totals on the models are edging up a bit, especially across the northern half of the state. Local amounts of a half inch are possible in a few spots…

Chillier air then dives in here for Thursday, with all eyes shifting toward the weekend storm system. This will be a very strong storm system, but it’s not looking like the powerhouse it was a few days ago. Winds are going to be the main problem around here, with gusts of 40mph or greater from Friday evening through Saturday morning. That’s when the front slams in here with showers and some low-topped thunderstorms…

That strong northwesterly wind really kicks in for a very cold Sunday. Depending on the exact direction of that wind, a few flurries will be possible, especially in the east…

Wind chills with this may drop into the teens at times late Sunday into Monday morning.

Another cold shot then shows up by Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day of next week. We are about a week away from that cold shot, so the delivery method of that cold will change. The latest GFS shows some cold turkey…

This particular model run has some frigid wind chills to start the big holiday…

I mentioned earlier how the European Model seems to be having issues in hot it’s handling the pattern over the next week or so. It was a model that was the first to show the upcoming cold shots, then all the others came aboard. Now, the Euro has really scaled things back.  Normally, I side with the European, but drastic changes in a model family, tend to make me a little skittish. Plus, the troughs ejecting from the southwest would seemingly play into the bias of the model.

To illustrate the point, compare and contrast the snowflake potential from the Ensembles over the next 2 weeks…

GFS

European

Fight, fight, fight. 🙂

I’ll see you guys later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 12:15 pm

Early Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. We continue to watch a very busy pattern setting up over the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that throws several systems our way, as our pattern grows more wintry this weekend into Thanksgiving week.

The setup for the weekend largely remains the same, but with some slight changes showing up as we get closer. The trend is for a slower and slightly weaker storm system rolling through here this weekend.  That would lower the true severe thunderstorm threat, but keep the high winds, heavy rain, crashing temps and snowflake chance.

The new GFS…

Notice how the winds are more northwesterly now on the GFS, giving central and eastern Kentucky the chance for some flurries or snow showers Sunday and Sunday night…

Again, we would need a true northwesterly wind to come down the length of Lake Michigan to give us enough moisture to provide the flakes around here. Flakes or not, temps for Sunday into Monday are frigid with wind chills way down.

We then see that system getting trapped in southern Canada as a huge block forms to the north of that….

That allows for additional cold to dive in here for Thanksgiving week and weekend. It could be introduced by a storm system, threatening our region with flakes for the big day.

The GFS keeps that block going through Thanksgiving weekend, allowing for winter systems to dive underneath it…

Don’t take that to heart, but it’s an illustration of the winter look the Ensembles have been screaming for a few weeks now.

I’m confident the cold shots are coming, flake chances will be ironed out on a case by case basis. Regardless, this is a far cry from the pattern of the past few years. 😉

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 2:00 am

All Eyes On Our Weekend Storm

Good Tuesday, fellow weather weenies. We continue to keep a close eye on a potential wild setup for the upcoming weekend. This will come from a powerhouse of a storm system that can bring high winds and strong storms, before unleashing a winter pattern.

Before we make it to the weekend, we have one more cold front to go through. This arrives on Wednesday with a quick increase in gusty showers during the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts could top a quarter of an inch in some areas…

This front passes through here Wednesday night and knocks the temps down several degrees for Thursday. The NAM shows a healthy high temp gradient, with some areas struggling to get to the low 40s…

This brings us to the weekend and a powerful storm system taking aim at the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The models continue to have their usual differences, with the European being especially bad. It sometimes struggles with energy ejecting from the southwest, and it’s doing it right now.

The GFS has been fairly consistent, but the Canadian shows the same thing run after run…

That setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms Friday night and early Saturday. With or without strong storms, winds are going to be a major player. Gusts of 40-50mph will be possible during this time.

Temps crash on Saturday as the coldest air arrives Saturday night into Sunday. That’s when we have the chance for a few flakes, though that all depends on the exact wind flow.

The Canadian continues to show a few flakes around here through Monday…

Again, that all depends on how much of a true northwesterly wind flow we can get.

This air is frigid and the winds will be very gusty, regardless of the exact direction. Wind chills are going to be way down there from Saturday night through Monday. Teens look to be a safe bet at times for wind chills, but a few models give us a fighting chance at single digits…

Another shot of cold arrives as we head into Thanksgiving week. The models go back and forth on whether or not to develop a storm system in the eastern part of the country. Some of the latest runs show this system centered on Thanksgiving Day…

We know the cold shots are coming, but can they produce flakes across Kentucky? That’s the question going forward, but you have to like the odds of, at least, seeing flakes fly at some point through next week.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

28 Comments