Daily Archives: November 17, 2017

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Update On The Weekend Storm

Good Evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on our weekend storm system and to take a look at your Thanksgiving holiday weekend trends.

Winds continue to be the main player from our weekend storm. Gusts of 40mph-50mph will be likely across the entire state and surrounding states.

The most tone deaf NWS office in our region is out of Charleston, WV. They control Kentucky counties in the northeast and those 4 counties are routinely left out of advisories and watches that blanket the rest of the state and region.

Look at the current Wind Advisory and notice the 4 counties excluded…

Those counties are actually surrounded by advisories issued by other NWS offices. If this was a one time thing, it would be a different matter, but it’s been a multi-decade issue with the same office. That area deserves better.

You know what this rant means? The weather trolls pretending to be “real people” will be returning… Just watch.

Ok… rant over. 🙂

Late Saturday afternoon will bring the front into the region, with the potential for strong storms. A few have a chance of becoming severe…

As colder winds crash in behind the front, the Hi Res NAM keeps showing some flakes mixing in from northwest to southeast Saturday night…

The model then kicks in that northwesterly wind, bringing some flurries in here for Sunday. I see the model trying to give a little coating to the highest mountains along the Virginia border…

That’s questionable and I’m still only going with mainly flurries. Flakes, people! 😉

The outlook for the LONG Thanksgiving holiday weekend is still for two cold shots to impact our weather. One comes by Wednesday and brings a seasonal brand of cold. The second one arriving by next Saturday will be the one to watch.

The GFS Ensembles show it well…

The European Model is on board, showing a potential winter weather system in the east…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:18 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Milder winds are blowing and those winds are about to become the main weather story of the weekend. If you’re a regular reader, the blog has had you prepared for this storm for about a week now. If you’re not a regular reader…What are you waiting for? 🙂 I kid… Kinda.

Wind gusts of 50mph or higher will develop later tonight into Saturday, and these winds will likely cause some damage…

This isn’t a one and done wind gust we are talking about, this is an all day event of winds occasionally topping 50mph.

A powerhouse of a cold front will then sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon, potentially brining strong to severe thunderstorms…

Cold air then crashes in behind this front…

That means the potential for snowflakes to show up as early as late Saturday evening into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Northwest wind will then create flurries and a few snow showers on Sunday, especially in the east…

Sunday is just a COLD day and you should take the under on the computer model forecast numbers. Wind chills will make it feel much, much colder.

Speaking of much colder, we find the operational models finding the cold air again for Wednesday and Thanksgiving…

I’m seeing early signals for an eastern US winter system taking shape next weekend into early the following week.

Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:00 am

A Wild Weekend Of Weather Ahead

Good Friday, folks. Our big weekend storm is about to blast the bluegrass state with everything from strong storms to a few snowflakes. A wicked temperature and high winds will also accompany this potent setup. Moral of the story… Buckle up. 🙂

Winds today increase as temps climb into the 50s. Those numbers keep climbing later tonight into Saturday, reaching the 60s in many areas. This is ahead of a POWERFUL cold front sweeping eastward across the state. This will bring a line of strong thunderstorms through here…

Some of the storms may try to go severe, with damaging winds the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a small severe risk…

With or without thunderstorms, the winds are going to CRANK. Gusts of 50mph or greater will be likely from late tonight through Saturday. Check out the gusts by Saturday morning…

Even northwesterly winds behind the front on Saturday evening try to gust close to 50mph on the Hi Res Nam…

Cold air is crashing in during this time and the NAM family keeps trying to mix a little snow in with the rain. Here’s the regular run of the NAM…

The Hi Res NAM shows more of a comma head of wraparound snows reaching into northern Kentucky…

That may be a little too aggressive with the wraparound, but it’s interesting to see it ramping that up as we get closer.

Northwesterly winds are going to crank on Sunday, and today may have been a warning shot on what to expect. You often hear me say to never underestimate a northwest wind in the cold months. I didn’t follow my own rule on Thursday and that northwest wind kept our temps in the 30s with lots of clouds.

Well, the northwest wind on Sunday is even colder and stronger. This will likely give us lots of clouds and some snowflakes flying around, especially in the east….

Temps stay in the low and mid 30s, but those gusty winds make it feel like we are in the 20s. Lows by Monday morning head toward 20 with wind chills even colder.

Another cold shot is on the way by Thanksgiving, with a second one arriving sometime later in the holiday weekend…

The European Model is coming back around in showing the cold again by the weekend…

That’s actually very close to developing a big winter event in the east. We will go more into all that after we get past the big storm system of the weekend.

I will have additional updates on our weekend storm coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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