Daily Archives: November 25, 2017

Time posted: 4:19 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. A windy cold front is blowing across Kentucky, ushering in a seasonal brand of chill for Sunday. While that happens, I’m much more interested in the system coming for the second half of the upcoming week, as the models keep trending colder with this system.

After tomorrow’s chill, milder winds will really crank from Monday through Wednesday. Looks like a good time to put up some Christmas lights, if you haven’t already. 🙂

The system moving in for Thursday and Friday continues to trend a little deeper, with the GFS and European Models now closing this thing off in our region. Here’s the Euro…

The surface map shows a potent system with rain in front of it and the potential for a mix behind it on Friday…

The GFS shows something similar, but a touch more progressive. Watch the upper low cut off…

The surface map also shows rain for Thursday and the potential for a mix as we begin December on Friday…

Granted, it’s a marginal air mass for flakes, but there’s a chance and the models keep trending deeper with the system.

Temps rebound as that pulls away, but it continues to be a full blown powerhouse blocking signal as later into the first week of December. The GFS Ensembles…

The CFS 7 day average shows one deep trough engulfing the eastern half of the country…

West coast ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. Block over the North Pole? Check. Block over Greenland? Check.

Look out below!

I will have a full update later tonight, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:24 am

Up and Down Temperature Trend

Good Saturday, everyone. Our loooooooong Thanksgiving holiday weekend rolls on as a cold front drops into the region from the north. This will knock the temps back down for Sunday, but another bounce back is likely into the first half of next week. After that… we trend down, again.

Today is a windy day with our cold front moving in. It’s a mainly dry day, but a sprinkle or light shower can’t be ruled out.

The air coming in here for Sunday is a seasonal brand of cold, but the Hi Res NAM has trended a little colder with the afternoon temps, especially across the north and east…

Southwesterly winds will quickly kick in early next week, boosting our temps through Wednesday. This is when we find an interesting little system crossing the country, pulling down much colder air with it. The European Model has a rain maker later Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow for some on the first day of December…

The Euro has a colder than normal first few days of December…

The GFS is actually similar to the European Model, with rain on Thursday and the chance for a Friday mix…

The models have been trending deeper with that trough in recent runs, so let’s see if that continues in the coming days. I suspect we are seeing the blocking signals flexing a little muscle on the models.

Speaking of those blocking signals and flexing some true muscle, the Ensembles keep showing just that later in the first full week of December…

Yowza.

The CFS 7  day average from December 8-15 has the same blocking and shows a deep trough across the eastern half of the country…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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