Daily Archives: November 26, 2017

Time posted: 6:01 pm

Sunday Evening Look Ahead

Good afternoon, everyone. We are closing out an awesome holiday weekend across the bluegrass states. This might be one of the better travel periods we have ever had for the entire Thanksgiving period. As we head into a new week, changes are showing up.

We continue to track a late week system, with a major winter pattern likely to unfold for the following week.

Temps continue to look mild for the first half of the week ahead on a stout southwesterly wind. There’s a shower chance on Wednesday, but much of the gusty rains arrive on Thursday. The models keep going back and forth with just how strong the late week system will be.

The stronger it is, the more cold air it can create on Friday, potentially bringing some flakes with the departing rains. The new GFS is marginal for the flakes, but is deeper than earlier runs…

The first week of December is when we continue to see massive oveall changes showing up. I’ve highlighted the battle between the cold signals and the mild signals over the past week. The blocking is going to win this battle, sending much of the country into a deep winter setup by late in the first full week of December. That’s a setup that should hang through the holidays.

The Ensembles have been showing this for a while, and now we have the operational models showing the same thing. The GFS shows a major storm that unleashes the cold…

Those maps for December 6-8.

This is EXACTLY when ALL Ensembles have been showing the winter pattern surging into much of the country. The AVERAGE of 51 members of the European Ensembles is crazy cold for almost the entire country…

The control run of the European is brutal across the land…

The blocking forecast to set up is straight out of the playbook of some of the more extreme winters across the country.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:56 am

Tracking A Late Week System

Good Sunday, folks. Here’s hoping this update finds you putting the wraps on an absolutely awesome Thanksgiving weekend. Weather-wise, it’s been fantastic with dry times for all of your travels. As we head into the closing days of November, a milder wind will blow, but an interesting system arrives as we officially welcome in December.

We continue our dry run of weather out there today, with a seasonal chill in the air. Those milder winds kick back in from Monday through Wednesday with mainly dry times. There’s a small shower chance on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rains hold off until Thursday.

That’s when we get a system to move into our region, being pushed by a nice upper level system. This brings gusty rain our way on Thursday, with a chance to see a mix on Friday. That chance depends on just how strong this system turns out to be.

If it’s more progressive like this…

Forget about it.

If it’s deeper like this…

You have a chance for a flake on day one of December.

There isn’t much “true” cold air for that system to tap, so it will have to manufacture some. So our Friday flakes chance depends on how potent the upper low is.

Once that moves way, temps will rebound in a big way, but major changes are afoot. I’ve been blogging about the milder signals doing battle with the colder signals showing up. These colder signals are going to win the battle, but not until later in week one of December. From that point on, the overall setup will be loaded with a ton of winter potential.

Major blocking is developing to our north, and a west coast ridge will eventually join it. That leads to a deepening eastern US trough. Watch that play out on the European Ensembles…

All of the ensembles are have been signing this tune for days now, which is pretty awesome to see such agreement. Now the operational models are getting with the program. Watch the GFS go toward the same wintry look…

I will update things later today, so check back in. Until then, enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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