Daily Archives: November 27, 2017

Time posted: 7:41 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a calm and quiet period, but mother nature is about to kick things up a notch or ten over the next week and change. We have a true winter pattern taking shape next week, and it’s likely to hang tough for much of December.

The evolution of this setup has been well advertised for a while, with all the models showing the exact same scenario. The various ensembles have been leading the charge and now we find the operational models and the seasonal models coming to the same exact conclusion.

The GFS Ensembles really show this blocking pattern very well. Watch how the deep trough develops as the blocks strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere…

The cold crashes in next week and deepens into the following week. Here are the GFS Ensembles 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius…

December 4-8

December 9-13

With that much cold, snow chances shouldn’t have a very hard time showing up. The GFS Ensembles are very enthusiastic…

Climatology says our first true accumulating snowfall occurs in the middle of December and I see zero reason that doesn’t happen this year. As a matter of fact, I don’t think it would be one and done before Christmas in this kind of pattern.

I will see you guys tonight for another update. Here’s hoping you enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:34 pm

Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track a major pattern change coming next week. It’s one that will bring a very cold setup to much of the country. With the cold, winter weather chances are sure to follow.

I don’t have much time, but wanted to share some of the latest data with you guys. No, I’m not one of those stuffy mets who thinks you guys shouldn’t be able to see such things. 😉

The late week system looks fairly progressive, with chilly showers Thursday into early Friday…

That system is being pushed through here because the pattern change is now coming much quicker on the models. The timeline on the GFS and Canadian Models is to bring rain in here late Monday into Tuesday, with the cold coming in behind that…

I’ve talked and talked and talked about the blocking taking shape. Look at this mega block showing up on the latest run of the GFS…

That’s ne heck of a trough getting caught under the block, bringing frigid air to the eastern half of the country.

The CFS continues to play catch up, but is seeing the cold. Watch the 5 day temperature departure intervals…

Keep in mind, those are in Celsius!

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

Early December Changes Ahead

Good Monday, everyone. Our weather pattern is about to undergo a major change, with Old Man Winter getting ready to take control of the pattern for much of the country. Before that happens, we have some mild air setting up shop for a bit.

I have a blowout post ready for you guys, so buckle up and let’s get after it.

Before we look ahead, let’s compare our current November to last November. Last year, we had a ridiculously warm November, setting records across much of the country. This year has been just the opposite, with as much of the country coming in colder than normal as above normal. Much of Kentucky has been below normal through the completed days.

Look at the stark difference…

Obviously, the pattern heading into this winter is a different beast compared to the one from the same time a year ago.

Now, let’s talk about this week before we get to the major change to winter coming later next week.

Today through Wednesday are seasonally mild on a gusty southwesterly wind. I’m sure lots of folks will be taking advantage of this nice weather, and I plan to do the same. 🙂

There’s a small shower chance coming by Wednesday, but the main system holds off until we get to Thursday and Friday. This is a system the models continue to have a bit of trouble with in terms of strength. Regardless, gusty showers move in Thursday with a nice temperature drop on Friday…

Any flake chance on Friday depends on how strong our system is. My thoughts on that chance? Meh.

Seasonal chill moves in for the weekend, but expect a temp rebound into early next week. This is ahead of the massive changes showing up across the Northern Hemisphere. The amount of blocking showing up is pretty darn impressive…

Blocks show up along the west coast of North America, Greenland and near the North Pole. That’s the trifecta of blocking, and usually delivers a lot of cold to the eastern half of the country.

The models seem to be trending quicker with this change, which is usually good sign for the confidence level. The GFS is now bringing this front in here by next Tuesday…

The Canadian also shows the arrival of the deepening trough by next Wednesday…

Man, look at that blocking showing up!

The Ensembles have all been locked in on this for a while, now. The European Ensembles have 51 different members, so to see this kind of cold from an average of 51 members is impressive…

Look at the single run of the European Control for the same time…

That shows the massive blocking over top, with frigid temps across much of the United States.

All of this was talked about in the post I made last week on how the MJO signal might win the near term, but give way to the blocking signals showing up. As the MJO forecasts continue to come in with very low amplitude…

That allows for other signals,  such as a -NAO, -AO, -EPO and +PNA to take control of the pattern. Each of those are cold signals for our region. All four of them showing up together is a very strong signal.

Again, this starts later next week and likely locks in through Christmas. Can we get some snow from this setup? I would assume that’s going to be the case. To begin with, climatology for our first true snowfall falls within this same time period. Throw in all the cold and an active pattern, it might just increase those odds in a big way.

There ya go… A blowout post to start the week. I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good Monday and take care.

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