Daily Archives: November 28, 2017

Time posted: 7:37 pm

Updating The Big Changes Ahead

Good Tuesday evening, gang. While the milder air continues to rule the pattern in the short-term, it’s the longer term that’s getting all the attention. We have a MAJOR pattern change coming to North America as we head into next week. It’s a pattern that will then try to lock us into a very wintry setup.

It’s interesting to look at the closest analogs to the current pattern being forecast on the GFS. Some heavyweight December’s show up…

The top 3 analogs are from similar patterns in 1989, 1963 and 1989. 1989 is on the list a 3rd time,  1989 is the coldest December on record for Lexington. 1963 comes in at 3rd. 1983 is also on the analog list and is the 7th coldest. Those 3 years had something else in common… They all featured temps hitting the upper 50s and low 60s in the first week of December. Also, every year on that list checked in colder than normal.

Whether or not we can get close to any of those winters remains to be seen, but the pattern has the look.

The European Ensembles show a deep trough that doesn’t budge because of  mega blocking showing up to our north…

The seasonal model known as the CFS continues to head toward the ideas we have been talking about for a while. Look at the 5 day average temperature departures showing up on the run from December 9-13…

Keep in mind, those are in Celsius!!

Let’s skip ahead to the 5 days surrounding Christmas…

New Year’s…

The first 12 days of January…

Locked and loaded? It’s a heck of a look and matches up with the analog years I’ve thrown out there since the summer.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:18 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Mild winds are blowing out there today, with areas of western Kentucky possibility flirting with record highs. As this air continues for another day or so, we focus on a MAJOR pattern change coming next week. Winter is coming.

I don’t have a ton of time, so let’s get right into it. The Ensembles continue to show massive blocking, allowing for a huge trough to engulf much of the country. I’ve shown you these for the past week, now.

Just look at all the frigid air taking control of the pattern…

The GFS is similar to last night’s European Model with the transition starting next Tuesday, with a big storm system unleashing the cold…

Like the European. the GFS follows that up with a snow system diving in from the northwest by the end of next week…

Man, that’s absolutely frigid!

Notice how the upper air setup on the GFS looks exactly what we have been showing you from the Ensembles…

That’s a setup that often found in a lot of our great winter periods. I’m not saying this will  become one of them, but the pattern has the look.

I will have another update this evening and will be back on WKYT starting at 4pm. Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:10 am

Waiting For Winter To Arrive

Good Tuesday, everybody. Our run of mild weather continues, but the focus of the forecast is on a true winter pattern taking shape as we head into December. It’s a pattern that has the full confidence of the teleconnections , analogs and forecast models. Your friendly weatherdude also approves this message. 🙂

Before we get to that point, we have some mild days and a late week system to track.

Temps remain mild through Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds.  Those clouds increase early Thursday with gusty showers quickly entering the picture. Those are with a system pushing through here into Friday, bringing temps back down…

A few of the models are trying to pick up on another system crossing the region over the weekend, developing a bigger storm near the east coast…

That’s probably being overplayed on the GFS.

Temps bounce back this weekend into Monday as winds turn back from the southwest. That southwest flow is ahead of our big pattern change moving in here next week.

As major blocking goes up well to our north, it forces a deep trough to develop and lock in across the eastern half of the country…

The European Model is now crashing this cold air in here with a potent system late Monday into Tuesday…

The Euro then brings a clipper through the region by the middle of next week…

That’s all happening a little faster than I think , but the overall idea looks good. That overall idea matches the all the Ensembles and brings a massive trough underneath major blocking. This is an animation of 24 hour increments from the European…

Look at the cold showing up in that trough…

What about snow chances to go with all that cold? Look… I’m sure there will be chances, but there’s nothing specific to point to from this far out.

As I’ve been discussing, climatology suggests all this falls in the period when we typically get our first snowfall across much of the region. With the much colder than normal pattern setting up, we may be able to do it a little better than “normal” as we head through December.

The GFS Ensembles see the snow chances to go along with the cold that comes…

I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back. Have a good Tuesday and take care.

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