Daily Archives: November 29, 2017

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on a dramatic change to winter weather coming our way next week. This is one of the colder December looks I’ve seen in many years for the country, and it’s likely to stick around for a while.

As we inch closer to the pattern change of next week, we will start to focus more on individual systems showing up on the operational models. That said, operational models show a lot of variance from run to run, so we have to be mindful of that.

Let’s look at how the European Model brings the cold in with a front and wave of low pressure along it Tuesday and early Wednesday…

Just like the Canadian and earlier GFS runs, the European model has some snow behind the front…

Cold air then overwhelms the pattern for the end of next week. The European Model then takes the trough and goes crazy with a system digging in from the north. Check this thing out…

With the European Model digging this thing sooooo far south, it develops a huge storm coming out of the Gulf late next week…

Given the upper levels on the European Model, that system would get thrown back west,

Again, it’s way, way, way, way too early to get too caught up in individual snow threats. However, I do expect several snow chances through December and expect the month to finish above the normal.

The GFS Ensembles continue to grow more confident in snow chances over the next 2 weeks…

Look at how far south the snow chance goes… That’s the power of arctic cold shots lined up over the next several weeks.

Let me say this… Some extreme options are on the table for December.

I will see you guys tonight for the normal update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Update On Next Week

Good afternoon, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward a full-blown winter pattern developing next week, with the potential for this pattern to get downright nasty in the coming weeks. It’s been a well telegraphed pattern, that gets stronger looking as we get closer.

I’m not going to rehash all my thoughts from the past few weeks in how this pattern comes about. Feel free to go back and read all the prior posts dealing with the evolution. 🙂

It looks like we start the change on Monday with showers and storms increasing ahead of a potent cold front. Temps ahead of this front will likely surge well into the 60s on a very gusty southwesterly wind.

The question then becomes, do we get a wave of low pressure to develop along the front? The pattern argues for that and recent runs of the Canadian and GFS models have shown this. If we get that wave to develop, it could give us our first snow chance by Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Here’s the Canadian…

6z GFS

Snow or not  behind that front, the cold air crashes in with a 40 degree temp drop looking likely.

The European Model has been all over a system diving in from the northwest by later Thursday and Friday. The GFS is also showing this…

That could be a snow maker across the Ohio Valley, if it is indeed a real feature. Temps during this time will continue to drop as arctic air pours in.

The GFS wind chill map late next week…

If we continue to look at just the upper levels, we find a pattern that’s reminiscent of some of the great winters of the past. High latitude blocking forces all the arctic cold from the North Pole and Canada, deep into the United States. Watch how this pattern keeps repeating itself over the next 2 weeks…

I told you last night you would start hearing the term Polar Vortex. Right on cue.. I see it all over twitter this morning. 😉

I will have another update this evening and on WKYT starting at 4pm. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Winter Arrives Next Week

Good Wednesday, folks. We have weak cold front ready to cross the state on Thursday, but that’s not the system everyone is interested in. That one comes early next week and unleashes a very cold pattern across the eastern half of the country. It’s a pattern that looks to lock in for a while, bringing winter weather with it.

In the short-term, it’s another milder than normal day out there on a gusty southwesterly wind. Temps in the north will come down just a bit, but should stay above normal.

A cold front sweeps in here quickly on Thursday, bringing gusty showers through the region. Rainfall totals may hit a quarter of an inch in some spots…

 After a seasonal day on Friday, temps rebound again this weekend into Monday. From there, we start to see the much anticipated change showing up.

The GFS has rain increasing later Monday into Tuesday as our front presses in. The model suggests some mixing is possible as the cold takes hold…

The European Model is getting faster and faster with the cold air surging in here. Here we go from Monday into Tuesday…

The model then follows that up with a VERY strong system diving in from the northwest by Thursday and Friday…

There is a “wow” factor to that system. That’s especially true when looking at the upper levels…

That has an extreme look to it!

The GFS is on board with a similar setup for next week, then goes crazy the following week. Watch how the blocking keeps this pattern on repeat…

It’s been a few years since we’ve heard the term polar vortex, but there’s a chance you hear it in the coming weeks.

We know about the cold coming, but what about the snow chances? Folks, we are likely to have several chances for snow out of this pattern. I can’t pinpoint any one system or day, I can’t say big or little, but you would be hard pressed to get that type of pattern to develop without some snow around here.

The GFS Ensembles continue to be amped up with the snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Here are the latest 3 runs from the model…

For a smoothed out ensemble, that’s a pretty good signal.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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