Monthly Archives: December 2017

Time posted: 5:31 pm

A Bitterly Cold New Year’s Eve Update

Happy New Year, everyone. Bitterly cold temps continue to push into the region and will dominate the pattern for the first week of the new year. Wind chills will reach the danger category on numerous locations, and I’m watching the northwestern sky for snow chances.

That northwestern sky may spawn a snow shower or  a few flurries out there this evening…

Overnight lows head toward 0 or below in the north with 0 to 8 above for much of the rest of the state. Gusty winds will combine to produce wind chills from -5 to -15 on occasion.

The short-range HRRR model shows the dangerously cold wind chills for the first morning of the new year…

The short-range RAP is even colder…

So, let’s look at those model forecasts then look at the Wind Chill Advisory map for our region…

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio finally put northern Kentucky and the Cincy area in the Advisory, but left the southeastern part of their service area out. I guess they wanted to contribute to the donut hole created by the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston, WV.  As of this writing, their ENTIRE areas are surrounded by advisories.

While, wind chills in these areas may not be quite as cold as your neighbors to the west and north, you’re still getting wind chills from the above models that, in some cases, meet their beloved criteria for an advisory. Something to also consider, the models last night and this morning were way underdone with the wind chills. Readings were pushing -5 to -10 at times on the mesonet sites from the bluegrass region into parts of east central Kentucky.

On the flip side… Kudos to the NWS Office in Louisville. They have really been on their game with the Christmas Snow and the bitter cold, going all in on the impact side of things. They put together a great look at just how extreme this cold weather stretch is in our region…

This cold is historic, folks.

Moving on… A major east coast winter storm is likely by the middle of the week, sending more bitterly cold air into our region. That cold can easily rival what we are seeing over the next few days. A couple of systems may try to dive in here from the northwest, bringing snow chances as early as Thursday…

The European model as another system by next weekend…

You’re already seeing the models changing next weekend, showing just how difficult it is to push such a dense arctic air mass out.

While the extreme cold does start to relax next weekend and early next week, this continues to be a VERY cold pattern across our region. The GFS Ensembles show this as far as they can see into the middle of the month…

Once the extreme cold relaxes, we will have a better chance of getting southern systems into the mix for our region.

Make it a GREAT and SAFE New Year’s Eve. Take care!

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Frozen Pipes ALERT

Good Sunday to one and all. We are closing out 2017 with bitterly cold temperatures and this will continue through the first full week of 2018. We are in full-blown FROZEN PIPES ALERT mode during this time. This is a dangerous air mass moving in for a prolonged period of time and that will cause some issues.

Let’s start with the remaining hours of 2017 and the potential for light snow and flurries. We are likely to see another light snow maker impacting the northern parts of the state, bringing light accumulations that can cover roads again.

Once that zips by, watch the northwesterly wind this evening. It can generate a few snow showers and flurries for those New Year’s Eve plans in central and eastern Kentucky.

Now, let’s get bitter. Here’s a breakdown on the cold coming:

  • Temps start the day in the single digits for many, with a wind chill below zero. Highs only reach the teens for much of the state with a wind chill in the singles.
  • Temps by New Year’s Moring range from 0 to -5 in the far north, to 0 to 8 for the rest of the state. Wind chills will be from 0 to -10.
  • Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest of the bunch. Lows hit zero in many areas and may reach as low as -10 in the north. Wind chill temps will be from -5 to -15.
  • This is a dangerously cold air mass, so take any necessary precautions to get ready for it.

After a “not quite as cold” day on Wednesday, bitterly cold temps return from Thursday through Saturday. Similar numbers to what is upon us, may show up during this time.  This happens behind a huge east coast winter storm that’s likely to get going.

The flow behind this will be strong and from the northwest…

Combine that flow with upper level energy swinging through and you can sometimes get widespread snow showers and squalls. That’s a real possibility, and something for us to watch for.

An interesting system will come our way by next weekend, ahead of another big push of very cold air for the following weekend.

I have you guys all set to track today’s flakes…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Updates will come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

41 Comments

Time posted: 8:40 pm

A Frigid Saturday Night Update

Good evening, everyone. Today’s light snow system caused all kinds of travel issues across northeastern parts of the state, yet we couldn’t get the National Weather Service in Charleston, WV refused to issue any kind of advisory. A few slick roads were also noted into central Kentucky. These flakes were on the leading edge of a brutally cold air mass moving in.

Temps are already dropping into the single digits in the north with a wind chill that may reach -10. The rest of the region will see temps dropping into the single digits, with wind chills going below zero. Those numbers will get even colder and I will rant on that in a moment.

Another light snow maker is on the way for the final day of the year. We will get a streak of light snow across the northern half of the state, and it may cause similar issues as today. Local accumulations of a half to 1″ are possible, leading to the potential of snow covered roads.

After that, northwesterly winds try to produce some snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky for New Year’s Eve. You can see all this on the simulated radar from the NAM…

This is a brutally cold air mass moving in for New Year’s Eve through the entire first week of January. Anyone trying to downplay this, should just stop and find another profession. Wind Chill Advisories are out for central and western Kentucky and much of the surrounding region from New Year’s Eve through Tuesday. Wind chills of -5 to -15 will be likely at times.

That does not include northern Kentucky or the Cincinnati metro, even though they are surrounded by A Wind Chill Advisory…

This is now the 3rd wintertime event where the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has left a hole on top of this same region. I used to sing the praises of this particular office years ago, but it’s painfully obvious they have undergone some not so good changes. How on earth are they consistently overlooking one the major metro areas in the entire country?

Folks in the northern Kentucky and the Cincy area should hold them accountable.

Rant over. 🙂

I’m still curios to see what happens along the east coast by the middle and end of the week. That’s when we see a very sharp trough dig into the eastern half of the country, likely spinning up an east coast storm. While what should be well to our east, don’t sleep on a northwesterly flow producing snow showers behind it, or another system diving in from the northwest.

Bitterly cold temps will continue with lows reaching zero or a little below… Again.

A system will impact our weather next weekend as the extreme cold tries to relax for a bit, but watch how the GFS Ensembles keep trending colder for the second week of the year…

I will have another update later tonight, so check back. Enjoy the rest of your frigid evening and take care.

9 Comments