Monthly Archives: December 2017

Time posted: 5:31 pm

A Bitterly Cold New Year’s Eve Update

Happy New Year, everyone. Bitterly cold temps continue to push into the region and will dominate the pattern for the first week of the new year. Wind chills will reach the danger category on numerous locations, and I’m watching the northwestern sky for snow chances.

That northwestern sky may spawn a snow shower or  a few flurries out there this evening…

Overnight lows head toward 0 or below in the north with 0 to 8 above for much of the rest of the state. Gusty winds will combine to produce wind chills from -5 to -15 on occasion.

The short-range HRRR model shows the dangerously cold wind chills for the first morning of the new year…

The short-range RAP is even colder…

So, let’s look at those model forecasts then look at the Wind Chill Advisory map for our region…

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio finally put northern Kentucky and the Cincy area in the Advisory, but left the southeastern part of their service area out. I guess they wanted to contribute to the donut hole created by the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston, WV.  As of this writing, their ENTIRE areas are surrounded by advisories.

While, wind chills in these areas may not be quite as cold as your neighbors to the west and north, you’re still getting wind chills from the above models that, in some cases, meet their beloved criteria for an advisory. Something to also consider, the models last night and this morning were way underdone with the wind chills. Readings were pushing -5 to -10 at times on the mesonet sites from the bluegrass region into parts of east central Kentucky.

On the flip side… Kudos to the NWS Office in Louisville. They have really been on their game with the Christmas Snow and the bitter cold, going all in on the impact side of things. They put together a great look at just how extreme this cold weather stretch is in our region…

This cold is historic, folks.

Moving on… A major east coast winter storm is likely by the middle of the week, sending more bitterly cold air into our region. That cold can easily rival what we are seeing over the next few days. A couple of systems may try to dive in here from the northwest, bringing snow chances as early as Thursday…

The European model as another system by next weekend…

You’re already seeing the models changing next weekend, showing just how difficult it is to push such a dense arctic air mass out.

While the extreme cold does start to relax next weekend and early next week, this continues to be a VERY cold pattern across our region. The GFS Ensembles show this as far as they can see into the middle of the month…

Once the extreme cold relaxes, we will have a better chance of getting southern systems into the mix for our region.

Make it a GREAT and SAFE New Year’s Eve. Take care!

21 Comments

Time posted: 2:05 am

Frozen Pipes ALERT

Good Sunday to one and all. We are closing out 2017 with bitterly cold temperatures and this will continue through the first full week of 2018. We are in full-blown FROZEN PIPES ALERT mode during this time. This is a dangerous air mass moving in for a prolonged period of time and that will cause some issues.

Let’s start with the remaining hours of 2017 and the potential for light snow and flurries. We are likely to see another light snow maker impacting the northern parts of the state, bringing light accumulations that can cover roads again.

Once that zips by, watch the northwesterly wind this evening. It can generate a few snow showers and flurries for those New Year’s Eve plans in central and eastern Kentucky.

Now, let’s get bitter. Here’s a breakdown on the cold coming:

  • Temps start the day in the single digits for many, with a wind chill below zero. Highs only reach the teens for much of the state with a wind chill in the singles.
  • Temps by New Year’s Moring range from 0 to -5 in the far north, to 0 to 8 for the rest of the state. Wind chills will be from 0 to -10.
  • Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest of the bunch. Lows hit zero in many areas and may reach as low as -10 in the north. Wind chill temps will be from -5 to -15.
  • This is a dangerously cold air mass, so take any necessary precautions to get ready for it.

After a “not quite as cold” day on Wednesday, bitterly cold temps return from Thursday through Saturday. Similar numbers to what is upon us, may show up during this time.  This happens behind a huge east coast winter storm that’s likely to get going.

The flow behind this will be strong and from the northwest…

Combine that flow with upper level energy swinging through and you can sometimes get widespread snow showers and squalls. That’s a real possibility, and something for us to watch for.

An interesting system will come our way by next weekend, ahead of another big push of very cold air for the following weekend.

I have you guys all set to track today’s flakes…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Updates will come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

41 Comments

Time posted: 8:40 pm

A Frigid Saturday Night Update

Good evening, everyone. Today’s light snow system caused all kinds of travel issues across northeastern parts of the state, yet we couldn’t get the National Weather Service in Charleston, WV refused to issue any kind of advisory. A few slick roads were also noted into central Kentucky. These flakes were on the leading edge of a brutally cold air mass moving in.

Temps are already dropping into the single digits in the north with a wind chill that may reach -10. The rest of the region will see temps dropping into the single digits, with wind chills going below zero. Those numbers will get even colder and I will rant on that in a moment.

Another light snow maker is on the way for the final day of the year. We will get a streak of light snow across the northern half of the state, and it may cause similar issues as today. Local accumulations of a half to 1″ are possible, leading to the potential of snow covered roads.

After that, northwesterly winds try to produce some snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky for New Year’s Eve. You can see all this on the simulated radar from the NAM…

This is a brutally cold air mass moving in for New Year’s Eve through the entire first week of January. Anyone trying to downplay this, should just stop and find another profession. Wind Chill Advisories are out for central and western Kentucky and much of the surrounding region from New Year’s Eve through Tuesday. Wind chills of -5 to -15 will be likely at times.

That does not include northern Kentucky or the Cincinnati metro, even though they are surrounded by A Wind Chill Advisory…

This is now the 3rd wintertime event where the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has left a hole on top of this same region. I used to sing the praises of this particular office years ago, but it’s painfully obvious they have undergone some not so good changes. How on earth are they consistently overlooking one the major metro areas in the entire country?

Folks in the northern Kentucky and the Cincy area should hold them accountable.

Rant over. 🙂

I’m still curios to see what happens along the east coast by the middle and end of the week. That’s when we see a very sharp trough dig into the eastern half of the country, likely spinning up an east coast storm. While what should be well to our east, don’t sleep on a northwesterly flow producing snow showers behind it, or another system diving in from the northwest.

Bitterly cold temps will continue with lows reaching zero or a little below… Again.

A system will impact our weather next weekend as the extreme cold tries to relax for a bit, but watch how the GFS Ensembles keep trending colder for the second week of the year…

I will have another update later tonight, so check back. Enjoy the rest of your frigid evening and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Bands of light snow are putting down enough accumulations to cover roads in some areas, leading to slick travel conditions. Behind this, we get another light snow system on Sunday, with brutally cold temps to follow.

The light snow is overachieving in some areas, with the potential for a local half to one inch showing up. With a frozen ground, snow has NO problem coating or covering roads. Throw some friction from traffic into the mix, and you’re going to get some roads to become skating rinks. This might be a good time for a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory for a few areas.

I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The bitter cold comes crashing in behind this later today, with temps dropping through the teens from north to south. Wind chills will reach -5 at times by late evening. Those wind wills should be in the zero to -10 range Sunday morning with actual temps in the single digits.

Another snow streak comes through the northern half of the state on Sunday, leading to the potential for something similar to today.

Temps are going to be brutal from this point. Highs are generally in the teens from Sunday-Tuesday, with a few areas barely into the teens. Overnight lows go like this:

  • Monday morning will see temps from 0 to -5 in the north and 0 to 5 above for much of the rest of the state. Wind chills will be solidly below zero.
  • Tuesday will be the coldest with the potential for readings in the far north to get as low as -10. The rest of the state should go from -5 to +5. Wind chills range from -5 to -15 at times.
  • This is dangerous stuff and you should take all weatherproofing precautions now.

Wednesday finds another arctic front diving in here and that could produce some light snow, with the chance for some northwesterly flow snow showers into Thursday. This will unleash ANOTHER brutally cold shot that could rival the early week numbers.

Let’s get back to today’s light snow and track it all…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

19 Comments

Time posted: 2:05 am

Bitterly Cold Temps Return

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue to track a few bands of light snow and flurries out there today, but the star of our weather movie continues to be the bitter cold. Our temps may hit zero or below in the comin days, just as we kick off the brand new year.

In the near-term, a few pockets of light snow and flurries are working across the area. This isn’t terribly widespread, but the flakes are falling onto a frozen ground, meaning some coatings or light accumulations may occur. Track away…

The temp tumble begins this evening with readings dropping through the teens, with wind chills going below zero by late evening…

Those continue into the final morning of 2017, with actual lows in the single digits. The day will also feature a small band of light snow and flurries zipping through some areas. Highs may not get out of the teens for many areas, with wind chills near zero all day.

That sets the stage for a bitterly cold start to the New Year. Temps will be in the single digits to start, with teens for highs. Winds making it feel much colder.

Monday night into Tuesday morning will find temps dropping into the danger zone. Readings from 0 to 5 above will be noted in the south, with the northern parts of the state in the 0 to -7 range. Wind chill readings of -5 to -15 will be noted. This is brutal stuff.

The entire first full week of 2018 is crazy cold, with the GFS Ensembles keeping the cold going into week two…

For perspective on just how strong and prolonged this patter is, here’s the low temp forecast from the European model for NEXT Saturday…

In terms of any snow chances for the week ahead, we will have to watch for hard to time, and hard to find, disturbances diving in from the northwest. I suspect a system or two similar to the one that just grazed us, will try to show up. With even colder air in place, the setup should send those farther south.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

28 Comments