Daily Archives: December 1, 2017

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on the major pattern change coming in here early next week, and the potential extreme setup that follows that up. There’s a ton to track over the next few weeks and it all starts with the system coming in early next week.

The system rolling in here on Tuesday will set up a wild ride. Temps ahead of this hit the 60s, winds may reach 40mph or greater and showers and thunderstorms will be likely.

Behind the front, temps drop quickly into the upper 20s and low 30s by Tuesday night. The race is on for the cold to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield. The GFS keeps showing the two hooking up briefly…

The European Model shows something similar across eastern Kentucky…

So does the Canadian…

We shall see how all that works out in the coming days. I’m still not fully on board with the cold catching the rain, but the odds continue to improve.

The models are now all picking up on the end of the week clipper, with the GFS continuing to crank this thing up…

Taken verbatim, that run would put a wind driven snow down with wind chills going below zero behind it. Again… that’s still a ways away, so it’s just an item of interest right now.

But, the European Model is also picking up on this…

The Canadian has it too…

Obviously, you will continue to get a lot of variability with the Operational models… That’s the nature of the beast. I’m showing the above maps to note the trends… Nothing more. Trends… Trends… Trends. 😉

That said, the trends on the GFS is for extreme winter weather in the coming weeks. Goodness, the full runs of the model are something to behold, if only in virtual reality. 🙂

The GFS Ensembles continue to ramp up snow chances over the next few weeks. The last two runs…

 

What’s amazing about this pattern is the possibility of just how stable it becomes. The European Ensembles 2 weeks from now look just like the pattern coming later this week…

The CFS is now joining in on the fun. Temperature departures through the middle of January in Celsius…

Now, let’s see if this pattern can deliver the goods.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to roll into a milder weekend, but it’s all about Old Man Winter crashing in here next week. It’s a pattern that has been well telegraphed and continues to show up very strongly as we get closer.

Our cold front slams in here on Tuesday showers and storms, gusty winds and a HUGE temperature drop. The GFS keeps showing a change to wet snow on the back edge of the precipitation shield Tuesday night and early Wednesday…

Here’s a closer look at the chance of snow…

The Canadian continues to be very similar with that look, upping the chance for, at least, a few flakes of snow flying around.

As the arctic cold continues to dive southward behind all that, clippers show up starting Thursday and going through next weekend…

Clippers embedded with a true arctic northwesterly flow are usually overachievers. Any snow from those would have a high ratio, too.

Wind chills with that clipper to start next weekend on the GFS…

The model keeps the blocking in place through the end of the run, with additional snow systems showing up on it. Several runs have also shown some brutal cold…

I will have another update this evening. Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:53 am

A Wild Ride Next Week

Good Friday, folks. The month of December is off and running with temps all over the place out there today. While the weekend weather looks nice, things are about to take a turn toward the wintry side of life. The pattern over the next few weeks has a lot of potential, so buckle up.

Before we  get to all that, let me say a few words about today’s weather. Fog may be quite thick this morning into parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This fog may be awfully slow to burn away today. If that’s the case, temps would be much chillier for areas keeping the fog and low clouds.

Something similar may try to play out on Saturday, but a southwesterly wind will certainly stir the atmosphere up some. Highs should hit the 50s for most, with a 60 for the west.

Sunday’s forecast: See Saturday. 🙂

The fun begins early next week as a strong cold front works toward Kentucky. Ahead of this front, winds will crank and temps will spike deep into the 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop and work across Kentucky Monday night into Tuesday. As the front moves through, temps will then tank Tuesday night and Wednesday…

Some heavy rain totals are a possibility…

The GFS continues to indicate the potential for a change to light snow right behind the front Tuesday night and early Wednesday…

Again, I’m still not completely sold on that scenario playing out, but the odds of that are increasing.

Flakes or not right behind the front, the cold takes hold and we will be watching the potential for several systems to drop in from the northwest. The GFS brings a couple of clippers into town from Friday into next weekend…

A few days later, it tries to round the bend of the trough with a deeper system…

The GFS has been very consistent in a general sense with the individual systems showing up over the next week or two. The normally reliable European Model gives me a different solution with each run. While it has the cold setup, the individual systems are totally different with each run. The Euro appears to be having trouble with the initial trough coming from the west early next week, throwing the rest of its run off.

I’m not saying the GFS is spot on with everything (it’s not at all), but it’s steady and probably closer to reality.

Just watch those arctic shots showing up over the next few weeks…

We will likely see several snow chances during this time, but that’s about all I can say. Those will be handled on a case by case basis as we get closer to each system.

That said, the Ensembles continue to like our snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Check out the last few runs…

 

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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