Daily Archives: December 2, 2017

Time posted: 7:21 pm

Weekend Update On The Winter Pattern Ahead

Good evening, gang. Here’s hoping this update finds you enjoying life to the fullest on this Saturday evening. Our weather pattern is about to undergo a major flip, with Old Man Winter getting ready tp steal the show. The transition starts in a few days, with the next several weeks likely to feature some real deal winter.

We know the change begins with a powerful cold front on Tuesday. That’s coming our way with gusty winds, showers and storms, a bit temp drop and a chance for some backend flakes in the east.

The cold northwesterly wind flow then kicks for the rest of the week. That’s a much colder than normal setup that grows colder and colder with each passing front.

The Thursday-Saturday period has some potential to it. The European Model is keeping the initial front along the east coast, allowing for a storm system to develop along it late Thursday and Friday…

That particular run brushes eastern Kentucky with some snow. Is the European onto something or just on something? That remains to be seen. I suspect the bias of holding too much energy back is coming into play, leading to a semi-phantom system along the east coast. We shall see.

Regardless, the model has the strong clipper diving in here late Friday into Saturday…

That’s a snowmaker across our region and has shown up on every GFS model run for many days now, and it continues with the late afternoon run. The new GFS also shows some kind of system along the east coast, but is a little farther east then the European. It also shows one heck of a digging clipper into our region…

Again, that would be a snowmaker across Kentucky and much of the Ohio Valley. Very cold air swings in behind that as winds keep cranking. The wind chill numbers keep trending lower next weekend…

The GFS has not skipped a beat in showing another clipper and arctic air surge coming in behind that…

I’m beyond impressed with how consistent the GFS has been with the overall evolution of this pattern and how it’s handling each of these systems diving in. Of course, none of it has happened yet, but it really isn’t waffling much. I’m sure I just totally jinxed the model runs later tonight and Sunday. 🙂

The European Model has actually been the one playing catch up to the GFS, GFS Ensembles and even it’s own European Ensembles. It seems to have figured it out today. Watch the cold shots through the end of the run…

Speaking of the European Ensembles, check out what they are showing for 2 weeks from tonight…

Basically, it’s a pattern stuck on repeat because of all the high latitude blocking. Snow chances will likely be with us during this same period. The Ensembles keep showing the potential…

As I’ve said over and over, snow chances will be evaluated on a case by case basis. 🙂

I’ll see you guys later tonight with another update. Make it a good one and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 12:49 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everybody. As we roll through a gorgeous weekend across the bluegrass state, all eyes are turning toward the big change to winter for the upcoming week.

I’m jumping through hoops with poor cell phone service to get you guys this early afternoon update. So let’s get after it.

Our major cold front is still on target to arrive on Tuesday with gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms, and a huge temperature drop …

Cold air spills in behind this front on Wednesday and the cold continues to increase as the week wears on. A few flurries or periods of light snow will be possible from late Wednesday into Thursday, but the models continue to track a more potent upper level system diving in from the north west on Friday and lasting into Saturday…

That is accompanied by a strong clipper working across the lower Ohio Valley. If that’s the case some decent snows would be possible to cross the Ohio Valley with wraparound snow showers and squalls behind this as north westerly winds really crank up …

The exact track and intensity of that clipper remains to be seen. It’s still too far out to determine how much of a snow impact it can have on our weather in Kentucky, but the chance for accumulating snow‘s is certainly there.

Arctic air surges in behind that clipper and may push when chills to near zero at times later Saturday into Sunday…

Overall, this continues to be a very cold pattern taking shape for the rest of December. Individual snow chances will be dealt with on a case by case basis. It is important for everyone to understand that computer models will vary greatly on timing and intensity with each and every run, so you can’t get caught up in any one particular computer model run.  With so much energy diving through this deepening trough,  models may miss one of these clippers and then catch on within a day or two of it actually doing something in our region.

I will give you another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

11 Comments

Time posted: 1:53 am

A Pattern Change To Winter On The Way

Good Saturday, everyone. We have very pleasant weather to open up the first weekend in December. This nice air will stick around into early Monday, then it’s hammer time. Old Man Winter is getting ready to take control of the pattern, perhaps in a big way.

Before I get to the discussion, I’m on the road today, so your midday update may or may not happen. If it doesn’t I will have the typical evening update for you guys. I’ll also be throwing out some thoughts via Twitter. 🙂

This weekend in weather is pretty good, so enjoy it. Seasonally cold mornings with afternoon temps approaching 60 degrees in several areas.

Things take a little walk on the wide side after the weekend. Here’s how the big change may take place:

  • Gusty southwesterly winds will really crank later Monday into Tuesday. Gusts may reach 40mph or greater at times.
  • Temps ahead of our cold front will likely surge into the 60s for many areas.
  • Showers and thunderstorms work from west to east Monday night through Tuesday evening.
  • Some areas may pick up 1″ or so of rain during this time.
  • Temps plummet behind the front from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. That’s when the cold tries to catch up to the back edge of the rain shield, switching it over to a few flakes.
  • The best chance for flakes appears to be across the eastern half of the state.

Here’s how all this looks on the models…

The Tuesday Front…

You can see how far eastern Kentucky has the best chance for some flakes by Tuesday night…

Cold northwesterly winds continue to crank on Wednesday and can spit out some flurries.

That same northwesterly flow will have several systems embedded within it, each of them diving into our region. The first arrives by late Thursday or Friday, with the GFS continuing to show a healthy clipper digging into the Ohio Valley…

The European Model has a smaller system arriving before that clipper. This produces some light snow on Thursday…

Here’s the Friday-Saturday potent clipper on the European…

The best snows with a clipper fall along and just north of the track. The above scenario would also unleash some snow showers and squalls behind it with very gusty winds from the northwest. That’s pulling in some arctic air, too. Check out the wind chill numbers at times behind that…

GFS

Canadian

That’s frigid, folks.

Another system is then forecast to dive in here to end the weekend and begin the following week…

That’s another arctic air mass showing up behind that, and it’s likely to be even colder than the one to start the weekend.

Arctic shots keep diving in here through the end of the forecast model runs, with the potential for some extreme cold shots showing up across the country. Watch how stable and similar the GFS and GFS Ensembles are with all this…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

I will update things at some point later today, so keep checking back. Have a great Saturday and take care.

15 Comments