Daily Archives: December 4, 2017

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Changes Moving In

Good evening, gang. My time is short, but I always drop by to hook you up with an update. The update this evening is all about the big changes blowing into the region. This brings us into a winter pattern that locks in for the coming weeks.

Winds are going to be a big player tonight into Tuesday morning. Gusts of 40-45mph will be possible in many areas as showers and storms increase from west to east…

Temps drop like a rock behind the front from west to easy on Tuesday. There’s still a chance for a flake to fly tomorrow night, especially across the southeast.

Seasonal cold moves in for Wednesday with arctic shots coming this weekend and next week.

Some periods of flurries and light snow will be possible late Wednesday into Thursday. The main systems arrive over the weekend, with the models having the usual timing and intensity issues. That always seems to happen in the 3-5 day window from an event.

The European Model shows snows along the east coast from a couple of systems late week into the weekend. It has our clipper moving in Friday night and Saturday…

The model keeps trending a little stronger with it.

The European Model then brings another clipper in Sunday night and Monday…

With a much stronger system following that by Tuesday…

That’s being pushed by bitter cold air pressing into the eastern half of the country. Guess what’s behind that system? Another clipper…

Let’s check in to see what the GFS is showing for these same systems. The model is beginning to see the east coast snows, while trying to figure out the impact it has on our Thursday-Sunday pattern…

We won’t see the models fully understand this setup until we get to Wednesday or Thursday.

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles show the spread for the weekend snow potential…

Several runs are impressive with the snows, several others show some very light stuff. We shall see.

Here’s what I can say… This setup is likely to deliver our first light accumulating snow of the season at some point from Friday through early Sunday. Arctic cold winds blow behind that for Saturday and Sunday, with temps tanking.

The GFS also shows a small clipper by Sunday night, and goes toward the bigger system idea early next week…

Like the European, it’s showing bitterly cold air invading the east and has more action following that up later next week…

As I have been saying, we will have lots of snow chances between now and Christmas. I cannot tell you anything more beyond that, but the pattern has a lot of potential!

So much for a quick update… I just can’t help myself. ๐Ÿ™‚

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:36 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Our major pattern change continues to evolve, with Old Man Winter getting ready to take full control.

Leading the winter charge is a cold front working across the state tonight and Tuesday. Ahead of this, temps are spiking into the 60s this afternoon as southwest winds crank. Those gusts may reach 40-45mph later tonight and early Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop and roll across the state from west to east…

Temps behind this front drop all day long on Tuesday, with below normal temps in here for Wednesday. While colder than normal, the true cold arrives on Thursday as the northwesterly flow becomes established. This is when we start to focus on systems diving in here on the same flow.

The GFS keeps showing a potent setup, with the latest run looking like this at 500mb…

Unlike some earlier runs, that doesn’t fully phase the two upper systems. Of course, this scenario changes from run to run, but we will break em down one at a time.

The above setup leads to two light accumulating snows from the GFS. The first arriving Thursday night, with the stronger system bringing snows in here Friday night and Saturday…

Each of those could be advisory type events, but we still have a ways to go before I can get specific on snowfall possibilities. I will keep saying the same thing… I think we get our first light accumulating snows at some point from Thursday night through Saturday, but I can’t offer specifics. I should be able to start doing that tonight and Tuesday… I think. ๐Ÿ™‚

The air coming behind that is Frigid and could push wind chill numbers to zero or below at times. If we can get snow on the ground, single digit lows could be seen in some areas.

The next system continues to show up well in about a week from now. The GFS, similar to last night’s Euro, shows the Polar Vortex getting into the states…

You can see that well on the 16 day GFS animation of the 500mb anomalies…

You can also see how the deep troughs just keep forming throughout the entire run. The GFS Ensembles continue to grow more aggressive in snow chances during the same time…

I will have another update coming this evening and will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Make it a great one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Gusty Winds Announce The Arrival of Winter

Good Monday to one and all. Old Man Winter is blowing into the bluegrass state over the next few days… Literally. Winds are going to crank tonight into Tuesday as a powerful cold front crosses the state. From there, it’s all about tracking arctic shots of air into the country, with the potential for some snow makers showing up.

Ahead of the front, temps will surge into the 60s today as clouds increase. Those clouds will start to spit out some showers and rumbles of thunder across the west before the afternoon is through…

Showers and storms will then increase quickly from west to east tonight and early Wednesday. Winds are going to be a big player during this time and may top 40-45mph…

It’s a good time to secure those Christmas decorations. No one wants to chase Frosty down the street. ๐Ÿ™‚

Temps tumble behind the front Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. The cold is going to try to catch the back edge of the rain shield into far southeastern Kentucky. That MAY lead to a flake or two.

Wind chill temps by Wednesday morning will make it feel around 40 degrees colder than today in some areas…

Temps on Wednesday are well below normal, but only seasonally cold as the northwesterly flow gets established. This flow will try to throw some flakes in here on Thursday, with a more potent system diving in here Friday into Saturday.

The GFS continues to develop one heck of a clipper on top of us, as a big storm rides up the east coast…

A tightly wrapped system like that would produce some pretty awesome conditions for winter weather lovers. If we take that particular run verbatim, it would produce convective (thunder?) snows across our region to go along with gusty winds with arctic air moving in.

That would spread accumulating snows across much of the region.

While I am expecting this to produce our first light accumulations, at least, I am nowhere near being able to forecast anything specific. Please read that statement over and over. ๐Ÿ™‚

The above system happens as we get all the upper levelย energy diving into the trough to bundle up right on top of us…

The Canadian is now similar with the look upstairs…

The European Model is slowly shedding some it the southwestern bias with upper level energy and is getting closer to the GFS and Canadian…

Give that model a few more runs and see how it looks then. It’s already trending deeper with the Friday-Saturday clipper than earlier runs.

Wind chill readings from the GFS continue to be way down there…

And the models continue to track then next DEEP system early next week. Here’s the GFS…

The GFS keeps these systems coming through the entire 16 day run.

The European Model brings the Polar Vortex into the country behind that system early next week…

The Ensembles have been singing the same tune for a while now and show our snow chances during the same time period…

Here are the individual runs of the GFS Ensembles that make up the above map…

Again, there is some nice potential in the overall setup in the coming weeks. Let’s just see if Old Man Winter can deliver the goods on occasion. ๐Ÿ™‚

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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