Daily Archives: December 6, 2017

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. It’s all eyes on a series of winter systems set to bring a very cold setup to go along with snow chances for our part of the world. With the first arriving over the weekend.

Before that, we have a chance for a few flakes to fly on Thursday across the northern half of the state. That’s with the first push of cold air coming in for the next few days.

The clipper for the weekend is now within the timeframe of the NAM. That model shows our potent upper level energy diving right on top of Kentucky…

That will bring a period of light snow, with wraparound snow showers and squalls getting a little kick from Lake Michigan…

That’s a light snowfall across much of central and eastern Kentucky. I still want to see how the models look with this as we get within 48 hours. Winds will be very gusty during this time and can reach 30-35mph at times.

The individual runs for the GFS Ensembles are also picking up on this well…

The next snow system arrives Monday night into Tuesday as arctic air surges in from the northwest. Here’s the European Model…

The GFS is very similar…

The European Model has another potent clipper on Wednesday…

By the end of next week, the models try their best to get incorporate something from the southern branch of the jet stream. Here’s the European…

And the GFS at the same time…

If you’re not in the Christmas spirit, the weather pattern is certainly trying to help ya out! 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:48 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. This is a really short update, focusing on the clipper rolling in here this weekend. A strong northwesterly flow is going to try and pick up some Lake Michigan moisture and bring it into our region. That’s a good thing if you like the flakes.

The Canadian Model continues to bring a southeastern US snow system VERY close to the mountains of southeastern Kentucky. At the same time, it shows our clipper diving into the region, allowing for a strong northwesterly wind to pick up moisture from Lake Michigan. This is pointed right toward central and eastern Kentucky late Saturday into Saturday night…

That’s a healthy lake effect look from 3 days out, and one that would aid in the development of widespread snow showers and squalls in our region.

The GFS is having some ‘too progressive’ issues along the east coast, and that impacts the clipper behind it. The model varies from run to run on this system, but it’s also picking up on the Lake Michigan plume…

Here’s a little better look at that plume by Saturday evening…

The 6z run of the GFS was stronger with the flow, and more expansive with the action…

I think that’s much closer to reality, giving much of the region a light snowfall through Sunday morning. I can see some 1″-2″ (maybe not for everyone) amounts setting up within this action. Maybe locally more in the mountains? You know my rule… Never underestimate the power of a strong northwesterly flow around here in the cold weather season!!

Winds during this time will crank and could reach 30-35mph…

Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning has a nice look for winter weather lovers. While I’m still not sure how much snowfall we can get from this, widespread light snow to snow showers and squalls with gusty winds should make for a fun look.

Wind chills by Sunday morning may reach the single digits in a few spots…

I will update things later and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Winter Takes Control Of The Pattern

Good Wednesday, my fellow weather weenies. As we are now fully into the Christmas season, it’s always nice to have a winter pattern developing and that’s just what we have taking over. It’s one loaded with cold shots and snow chances right on through the holiday season.

Let me begin by saying your friendly weatherdude is almost down for the count with some kind of bug, so I hope all this makes sense. It took me off air last night and kept me from the Christmas Parade, but it won’t stop me from updating you guys.

I’ve talked about how the models would struggle with handling all this energy digging through the base of a deepening trough. We are seeing them do just that, even in the very short term. A few days ago, the models were showing a weak system moving across the Ohio Valley on Thursday, bringing the chance for some flakes. They lost it, but have found it again…

It’s nothing major, but it could be a small streak of light snow and flurries for some areas. But, it illustrates the point I’ve been making about how we can’t live and die with each model run, even on the smallest stuff. I digress. 🙂

Colder air comes in behind our little Thursday flurry maker, as a system develops from the Gulf up the east coast. As that’s happening, our clipper is diving in behind it by Saturday. Look at how close the Canadian is to bringing some of snow to our east into southeastern Kentucky…

The European Model is similar with how it handles the system on the east coast and the clipper diving in here…

Again, that’s a light snowfall showing up across, especially, central and eastern Kentucky. We have to get these clippers to within 48 hours before the models truly figure out intensity and exact track.

In the overall sense, I’m absolutely amazed how well behaved this pattern is on the models. When you have blocking this strong early next week…

The models don’t have much room to waffle. That’s the Polar Vortex showing up into the Great Lakes next week on the GFS. The Canadian says ‘me too, eh’…

Clipper snows are a good bet next week, with a good chance we get in on some of our first snow days in our region.

If you’re looking at this pattern and wanting some kind of snowstorm… This is not the setup for that through next week. The southern jet stream is being crushed by the cold coming into the country. This matches my winter forecast for December.

Ok, that’s all I can do at the moment. Nyquil time.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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