Daily Archives: December 7, 2017

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Updating The Wintry Weekend

Good evening, folks. It continues to look like a very wintry weekend across the bluegrass state as a clipper dives in from the northwest. This will bring a light accumulation of snow to our region, to go along with gusty winds and tanking temps.

Now that we are under 48 hours until the clipper arrives, the models are seeing this system a little better. Shocking, right? Check the how the upper levels show have a more potent look…

Here’s the European Model…

The simulated radar from the Hi-Res NAM is still a little underdone, but you can see the plume coming in from Lake Michigan…

The late afternoon GFS is also looking better with the clipper…

On a quick side note, look how close the southeast snowstorm gets to southeastern Kentucky tomorrow.

The models are still LIKELY underplaying the northwesterly flow, so let’s watch that trend into Friday.

It’s good to see the models now looking like my light snowfall odds map…

Winds are going to be a HUGE player Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusts can hit 30mph or greater…

That’s going to create a full blown flizzard at times. 🙂 It’s also going to take our wind chills way, way down. Wind chill numbers of 10-15 will show up Saturday evening…

Those numbers may hit the single digits by Sunday morning.

Beyond this weekend, arctic shots and clippers dive in with snow chances beginning as early as Monday night. You can see the additional cold blast showing up…

I will have your usual update later tonight and may throw out a first call map on WKYT at 11.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:19 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. Flurries and a few snow showers have been dotting the skyline across the region today. These flakes didn’t show up on most models, with only a few picking up on them less than 24 hours ago. There’s a much bigger system the models didn’t pick up on across the south and east.

This is a system that is ready to bring accumulating snow from the Gulf Coast to New England. Look at the snowfall forecast for the deep south…

Again, that wasn’t even a thought on the operational models until a few days ago. The Ensembles suggested snow to the Gulf Coast more than a week ago, and I talked about that very thing here on this blog.

I’m talking and showing you this to try and get everyone to stop worrying about each and every operational model run and focus on pattern recognition and trends. 🙂

As far as the clipper diving in here this weekend is concerned, I have no changes to my ideas. The Hi-Res NAM future radar shows our system diving in here, with snow showers filling in behind it on a northwest flow from Lake Michigan…

That’s likely underdone with the coverage and it only goes through 7pm Saturday evening. Northwesterly wind coming off Lake Michigan tend to be underdone on models, especially from a few days out.

Some light accumulations are possible across parts of the state. Here’s the area with the best chance…

Light is the operative word, with that potential during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be VERY gusty with a full blown flizzard breaking out at times. 🙂 Wind chills by Sunday morning hit the single digits at times.

Clipper mania kicks in next week with additional snow threats showing up as early as Monday night. It’s also a VERY cold week shaping up.

I will touch on all that with my next update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:56 am

Tracking The Weekend Light Snow Potential

Good Thursday, folks. Colder weather continues to take control of the pattern, as light snow chances start to show up. More than week ago on WKYT, I outlined December 8-15 as the period when we would see winter really begin to show up, and we are just about to that point.

A clipper dives into the Ohio Valley this weekend, bringing the chance for light snow. Before that, we have one small system crossing the region today and it could spit out a few flurries in the north and northeast. The GFS has this…

Here’s regional radar to see if any of those actually show up…

A potent upper level system dives into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, bringing a period of light snow and snow showers with it. You can see how the vort max digs right on top of us…

That gets the air to rising, creating the light snow. Northwesterly winds behind it will try to pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan by Saturday evening…

Again, this is a light accumulation event taking shape across central and eastern parts of the state. Will this be First Call worthy? We shall see. I want to see what happens on the models as we get within the 48 hour window. That starts later today. 🙂

Winds are going to be very gusty as the flakes fly and this will knock Sunday morning wind chills down into the single digits at times…

The early week snow systems are trending quicker, with the first is now slated to arrive by Monday night, carrying us into Tuesday. Here’s the Canadian…

The European and GFS have a similar look for the same time…

Another snow threat quickly moves in here behind that on Wednesday.

GFS

European

Another clipper or two will follow that up to round out the week.

Our first snow days will likely show up next week. Does that mean YOUR school? I guess we shall see. 🙂

Beyond the clipper mania, the southern branch of the Jet stream is going to try and come alive. This as the cold pattern remains, leading to an active week before Christmas.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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