Daily Archives: December 13, 2017

Time posted: 7:10 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Gusty winds continue to blow as a cold front settles into the region. We’ve already had a few reports of sprinkles, flurries and sleet falling, and another round of that is possible later this evening, with flurries by morning.

The best chance in the action this evening is across the north and northeast…

Colder winds will blow into Thursday with another flurry maker arriving on Friday.

Saturday continues to look good, with our next system coming in two waves. The first arrives Sunday with chilly showers…

The next one comes out late Monday into Tuesday and taps a much colder setup behind it…

Behind that, the GFS continues to bring in the winter charge as we head toward the end of next week and into the start of Christmas weekend…

Here’s the animated version of the GFS that goes through the rest of the Christmas holiday…

That’s a lot of arctic cold showing up….

The GFS Ensembles are also VERY cold during the same time period. Here’s the 5 day temperature departures in Celsius…

If may have noticed I haven’t shown much of the European Model over the past few weeks. That’s because the model has been having all kinds of issues with what to do with troughs coming from the west. The bias of the model is to keep WAY too much energy in the west as it suffers feedback issues with the Rockies.

To illustrate why the model has some issues, let’s take a look at the past 2 runs at for the end of next week.

Last night’s run had a deepening trough across the eastern part of the country and a huge ridge in the west…

12 hours later, the model totally reversed the pattern with a big ridge in the east and a trough in the west…

While I expect to see all models show some occasional big changes from run to run, that’s pretty extreme and it’s something the model has been doing a lot of lately.

I will see you guys later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:16 pm

A Quick Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick midday update on where this pattern is going for the rest of the week and in the run up to Christmas. I don’t have much time, so let’s get busy.

Winds are going to increase this afternoon and evening and may hit 40mph in some of the gusts. This happens as a strong clipper works by just to our north. That’s where the accumulating snows will be, but a few flakes or sprinkles may sneak into the north and northeast this afternoon…

Overnight, the front drops in with a few flurries or maybe a light snow shower. The best chance is across the east.

Another flurry maker moves in on Friday as temps stay well below normal.

The system coming in later this weekend appears to be splitting into two systems. The first part arrives on Sunday with chilly showers…

The second part comes out by Monday night and Tuesday and keeps trending much colder…

The colder trend continues to show up, as expected, on the operational models. While they offer big swings from one run to the other, the trend for cold and wintry continues to be there as we get closer to Christmas.

The GFS by the end of next week into Christmas weekend…

With arctic cold taking over much of the country, a southeast ridge is going to try to fight with it. That spells a very active setup across the eastern half of the country, with storm systems rolling between the cold and mild. You can see the theme of this pattern on the new GFS through Christmas week…

Don’t take individual systems and timing to heart, I’m just showing that to illustrate the overall pattern.

Oh, and the cold is impressive…

What a far cry from the last 3 Decembers around here!

I will update again this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:48 am

Active Pattern Takes Shape As We Head Toward Christmas

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a day full of gusty winds as another clipper drops into the Ohio Valley. This may unleash a few snowflakes to the region by Thursday, but the majority of the snow stays just to our north and east. In the longer range, it’s one active looking setup taking shape for Christmas weekend into Christmas week.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Winds out there may reach 40mph or greater at times this afternoon and evening. Those winds are head of our clipper, which brings heavy snows for areas to our north. As it moves east of us early Thursday… a few snowflakes try to press in…

Here’s regional radar to track this system…

Another system moves across the region on Friday bringing the potential for some flurries or light snow showers. Winds will be gusty with the cold air remaining.

That cold air gets pushes out on Saturday as temps soar deep into the 40s and flirt with 50. Then, a southern system moves in  with rain by Sunday…

That may end a bit of a mix later Monday as colder air scoots back in. The GFS then shows the cold digging in for Tuesday and Wednesday…

Yesterday, I made a map showing the potential for a wild and wintry setup for Christmas Weekend into Christmas Week…

The latest GFS jumps right to that solution…

That setup can put our region in heart of the winter weather potential, just in time for Christmas. Watch how the bitter cold presses in and slows down…

Let’s talk about the Madden Julian Oscillation and the potential impact it has on our weather. The MJO is basically an index tracking the tropical precipitation anomalies, generally in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The placement and intensity of the MJO plays a big role in the overall weather across North America. The current MJO forecast is for it to enter into Phases 7, 8 and 1 over the next 2 weeks…

Those phases offer a very cold look in our part of the world…

If you’ve followed me for years, you know my affinity for following the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). It really helped me nail the 2013-14 winter, and it’s showing a similar look to that winter, which was one of my analog years. The current EPO is forecast to become so negative, it’s off the chart…

A negative EPO is usually a very cold signal across the eastern half of the country. That’s about as negative as you will ever see a forecast for it.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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