Daily Archives: December 14, 2017

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on the busy pattern taking shape over the next few weeks. It’s one where the models are giving us some serious swings.

In the short-term, the first light shower maker arrives on Sunday, with another rain maker coming Monday night and Tuesday…

That will pull in some colder air for the middle of the week, but will then be followed by a nice bounce back in temps. That’s ahead of a cold front moving our way by late Thursday into Friday.

The European Model continues to show some VERY wild swings in how it handles the setup behind this front…

The new run plows the cold air through here to start Christmas weekend…

That allows for a big storm system to develop across the deep south by Christmas Eve morning…

That’s a similar look to what the Canadian Model gave us earlier today, but is also a far cry from the past few runs of the European Model.

With such an extreme temperature gradient setting up across the country, the big swings on the models will continue for several more days. They are having a tough time figuring out where to place the battleground for winter weather.

The GFS keeps giving us a different look, with the latest look being colder than the earlier runs…

Again, all I can tell you is that we are in the zone for potential wintry precipitation Christmas weekend into Christmas week. That’s pretty much it.

It is interesting to see the GFS Ensembles showing the cold air being more entrenched than the operational GFS. Here is the 5 day temp anomaly in Celsius…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:26 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cloudy and cold day for much of the region, as our cold December rolls on. A few flurry or two will also be spotted from time to time, but it’s the active pattern ahead getting all the attention.

Let’s skip ahead to later this weekend and the chance for rain moving in. Chilly showers will move across the state from southwest to northeast on Sunday…

That’s some pretty light stuff, with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Another shower maker then moves in from the same direction by Tuesday. This one will be able to tap some colder air behind it…

From there, we continue to see pattern setting up a battleground of wintry precipitation across our region as we head into the Christmas weekend. The operational models will continue to go back and forth on exactly where this sets up. Don’t get caught up in any one model showing snow, ice or rain for our region. Just don’t. All three modes of precipitation are VERY possible around here.

Here’s an animation of the GFS from late next week through the following week. It’s already much different with the initial system moving in on Friday of next week, but continues to indicate the Christmas mess with another system behind it…

The Canadian Model doesn’t go out as far as the GFS and only gets to Christmas Eve morning. It does show a similar evolution but with a much colder look…

You can clearly see how both models have a similar idea, but differ on placement and the depth of the cold air. True arctic, like what is forecast to invade the country, often presses farther south and east of what the models suggest. In addition, this has not been year or fall of a strong southeast ridge. Trends, folks.

The CFS 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius look similar to my map from earlier this week…

I will see you guys for another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:59 am

Breaking Down The Busy Pattern Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. Colder winds are back and blowing across the bluegrass state today. This is behind a front that dropped through here overnight.  This is part of a pattern that has been very busy and is about to get even busier in the run up to Christmas.

Temps out there today are in the 30s for highs, but gusty winds will make it feel like the 20s for most of the day. A few clouds will be noted and some of these clouds may spit out a few flurries or an out and out snow shower in the east…

Another weak system passes across the Ohio Valley on Friday and may spit out a few flakes. Highs are back in the upper 30s for most areas, which is still several degrees below normal.

Saturday looks like the best day we will see for a while. Temps in the west and south make a run at 50, with 40s for the rest of the region. Winds are gusty with some clouds increasing late in the day.

Those clouds are ahead of a shower maker for Sunday…

That’s a cold rain, too. Temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s for most of the day.

Another system will come out at some point early next week, but the focus is on what comes after that. The pattern continues to suggest one heck of a battle taking place right on top of our region from late next week into Christmas week. The GFS continues to show this with a slightly different orientation of the battleground.

The latest run is not shy on precipitation, nor precipitation types…

The amount of liquid precipitation on that particular run…

Don’t take that run seriously… I’m only showing it, like all other runs, to establish a trend. The operational runs will vary greatly from run to run.

Several days ago, I posted this map showing my thoughts on where the pattern was going by Christmas weekend…

Compare that to the latest GFS Ensembles 5 day average temperature anomalies centered on Christmas…

THAT is a heck of a match to the map I’ve had out for a while.

What about the wintry look on the same GFS Ensembles. Here’s the average snowfall through Saturday, December 23rd…

Let’s take that same map and add the next 5 days to it…

The only thing to take away from all of the above maps is this: The pattern is conducive for winter weather in our region from late next week through Christmas week.

I will have additional updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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