Daily Archives: December 16, 2017

Time posted: 12:26 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous day across the bluegrass state, but chilly showers are set to move in for Sunday. This sets off a very active pattern, leading to the potential for a widespread winter weather event across much of the country for Christmas weekend.

Last Monday, I put together a map to show the potential pattern I was seeing two weeks in advance…

Since then, the computer forecast models have been going back and forth on how to handle the pattern. Now that we are a week away, the GFS is trying to show a little consistency in the overall look of the setup. It continues to press a strong cold front through here on Friday, then slowing it down to our south and east with waves of low pressure working along it. With such a strong temperature gradient present across the country, the possibility is there for a ton of moisture to develop.

The new GFS continues to be all about that significant winter weather threat setting up right on top of us Christmas weekend into Christmas week…

Here’s the snow forecast from that run of the GFS…

The ice forecast…

None of the above maps are a forecast from me, I’m simply giving you a look at what the models are showing. Please keep that in mind. I continue to maintain that all modes of precipitation are possible during this time, but it’s too early for anyone to get more specific than that. Your Christmas could be as white as it is wet or vice versa. There are a lot of variables at play, and we are still a few days away from having a better handle on how this all plays out.

By the way… the GFS unleashes the frozen tundra behind that mess…

The Canadian model continues to rain on your White Christmas parade…

Considering how that model is taking a weak low directly into a 1045mb arctic high, I’m gonna say it’s having some issues.

Trust no single model run for the next several days… It doesn’t matter what it shows for your backyard. I’m still going with my map I put out on Monday. Every precipitation option is on the table.

My evening update may be much later than normal, but I will try to get it on. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:59 am

All Eyes On The Christmas Holiday

Good Saturday, everyone. Today is shaping up to be a really nice weather day across the bluegrass state, but some rain is on the way for Sunday. While the weekend setup is always important, I’m sure most of you are here to talk about the potential for next weekend. That just happens to be Christmas weekend, and there’s the potential for winter weather.

Before we get to all that, let’s talk about the current weekend. Temps today are very pleasant, but you will notice some clouds rolling back in later today. That’s ahead of a system zipping in from the southwest, bringing a few showers for Sunday…

That’s a chilly rain with upper 30s and low 40s out there.

The setup into early next week will feature quite a few clouds to go along with a few showers possible. The shower chance may increase a bit Tuesday and Wednesday, as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That will knock the temp down a few degrees for the middle of the week, but a big mild up is likely Thursday.

That will be ahead of a strong cold front rolling our way by Friday…

The GFS has this coming through and ending as a bit of frozen precipitation…

The setup for Christmas weekend into early Christmas week continues to be a very changeable one. It’s one that can put our region in the line of fire for a healthy winter weather event. The models continue to flip and flop with each run showing something different from the prior run, with no two models handling things the same way.

We can easily see all types of precipitation during this time. From rain to snow to ice to a combo… all options are on the table. Your Christmas can be white or it can be wet… It’s just way too early to get a firm handle on how this extreme looking scenario plays out.

The latest GFS is a Bing Crosby special, with Vanilla Ice in a co-staring role…

The model then follows that system up with another winter look a few days after Christmas…

For fun, the snowfall map from that run of the GFS…

Here’s the ice look…

This run of the GFS looks very much like the European Model from Friday afternoon. To further illustrate my point of the models being all over the place, the new run of the European Model overwhelms the pattern with cold air, with a smaller storm just to our east…

On the other side of the model spectrum is the Canadian. It’s the rainiest of the entire bunch…

As I said when I made this map on Monday…

I will use good old fashioned pattern recognition instead of relying on the back and forth of computer models. 😉

Updates will come later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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