Daily Archives: December 19, 2017

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, my fellow weather weenies. Our action-packed Christmas weekend is just around the corner, with Mother Nature and Old Man Winter ready to steal the show. From the potential for heavy rain to accumulating snows… We have you covered.

Before we get to that point, some showers are out there this evening. Those showers are mainly across the south…

It’s the southern half of the state that gets the most rain on Wednesday, with a sharp cut off across the north.

Our Friday cold front marches slowly across the state, allowing for low pressure to develop along it. This brings heavy rainfall into our region, with the potential for local high water issues. The European  model shows some very amped up rain totals through early Saturday…

The GFS is finally correcting toward this same idea…

Winds will also be a big player as the cold air surges in here Friday night and early Saturday. 40mph or greater gusts will be possible. Thunderstorms may flare up, too.

Temps crash from west to east on Saturday with that first round ending as some mix or light snow.

That front then stops just to our east on Sunday, allowing for another wave of low pressure to develop and roll northeastward along it. The European Model continues to get a littler snowier around here for Christmas Eve and Day…

Let’s watch that trend and see if the models continue to get a little stronger with that wave. Here’s the snow map from that run…

The new GFS has… Nothing. Literally… Nothing anywhere in the east…

Is that possible? Only if the Polar Vortex moves in and absolutely crushes everything with bitter cold. As of now, it’s the GFS verses the other models.

Lots of changes are still to come with the models.

It is interesting to note, all the models show a developing winter storm working across much of the country later next week…

Obviously, that’s a long way out, so we will just file that away in the “interesting” folder. We have to still figure out what exactly goes in the “White Christmas” folder, first. 🙂

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Weather Notes

Good afternoon, gang. We actually have a little bit of sun out there today, and that’s going a long way to improving our cloudy attitudes of the past few days. As we look ahead, we find a super-duper setup, with a huge rain and wind maker, followed by the potential for some Christmas snows.

Before we get to Christmas weekend, we have our first rain maker hitting parts of the state on Wednesday. The southern half of the state should see most of the rain, with locally heavy amounts possible in a few spots…

A few wet flakes will try and mix in on the far north and northeastern part of the rain, but it’s not a big deal if that happens.

Thursday will see our skies dry up, so enjoy it. Things get very active Friday into early Saturday as our cold front moves in, with slow-moving storm system developing along it. This is going to be a big rain maker, especially central and western parts of the state, and could lead to a high water threat.

The GFS is slowly coming around to the heaviest rains targeting these areas…

The Canadian is a lot juicier with the rain totals…

Some thunder is also possible Friday and Friday evening as temps spike toward 60 degrees. Winds will be very gusty and could become more of a player as we get closer.

Much colder air then crashes in as the front slams through here Saturday. That will try to switch the rain over to a mix or period of light snow…

The front the slows down as it moves into the Appalachian Mountains, allowing for a wave or two of low pressure to develop along it. The models are still struggling with placement and strength of these lows, and that should continue for a few more days.

The Canadian Model continues to show a nice swath of Christmas eve and Christmas Day snow in our region…

That low is pretty darn close to being a much bigger deal on that model run. You will also notice the negative tilt showing up, which would argue for a stronger low. Check our the cold coming in on that run. Ouch…

The GFS continues to struggle mightily, especially with the latest run. It has a lot of work to do to shed its progressive/flat bias…

Ironically, the run before that was strongly trending toward the Canadian and European Models…

To recap:

  • Heavy rain and some thunder is likely to start the Christmas weekend. This may bring a local high water threat to central and western Kentucky.
  • Temps crash on Saturday with the chance for a mix or some light snow showing up.
  • A wave of low pressure develops and brings the chance for snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The extent of this is still a long way from being determined. That said, we have a real chance for, at least, some light snow for the big day.
  • Arctic air comes in behind all this for Christmas Day and beyond.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another long-winded update for you this evening. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:37 am

Tracking One Heck Of A Holiday Pattern

Good Tuesday, folks. We have an absolutely loaded weather pattern taking shape over the next few weeks and it all gets started on Wednesday. That’s when the first of 3 major systems impacts our region. After that, we will bookend our long Christmas weekend with impressive systems. One is super wet and the other is looking white.

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the first system rolling in late tonight and Wednesday. The models continue to waffle just a bit on how far north the rain gets, and the potential for a touch of snow or a mix for some.

The NAM is super wet and very far north…

With a stronger system, the NAM is able to create some colder air on the northern edge of that rain shield. This run “thinks” some snow will fall…

Nope… I simply cannot see that happening to that degree. The GFS shows the potential for a few flakes in the northeast, but not much more…

Maybe some flakes will fly, but I’m not too excited about that.

The powerful cold front moving in on Friday is a different story. This front will have a strong wave of low pressure along it, bringing some wild weather into Friday night and early Saturday. As I mentioned several days ago, temps ahead of this can hit 60 on a STRONG southwesterly wind. Heavy rain is likely along and ahead of the front, and I’m increasingly concerned about the flood potential to start the weekend.

The GFS rainfall map for this first system is likely too far south and east with the heaviest totals…

The Canadian Model is farther west…

The European Model is also farther west. Here are the rain totals from the Wednesday system and the one coming in on Friday…

Now you can see my high water concerns.

The front moves through on Saturday, with the possibility of a switch to a mix or some light snow as temps drop 30 degrees from Friday. The front then stalls out just to our east into Christmas Eve, with waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary. The models are still struggling on how to handle this, but will likely trend stronger with the action as we get closer.

The European Model has the wave, with a healthy snow band showing up across our region…

The Canadian Model is similar with the entire setup. Here it is with the Friday rains and the Christmas snow threat…

The GFS is trying to get there, but is too far east with the low. Still, it produces a light snowfall for Christmas Eve and Day…

Now that the Friday system is trending wetter and deeper, it may very well be giving us a clue as to how the next system behaves.

That’s a lot of true arctic air coming into the country and into our region Christmas Day and beyond. We are likely to try and spawn another winter weather system a few days after Christmas.

The GFS Ensembles snowfall map shows the potential from Christmas Eve through the first few days of the New Year…

I warned you this was going to be an action packed pattern and it’s certainly looking the part. From the potential of flooding, to Christmas snow, to arctic cold, to additional snow threats… There is no rest for me in the near future.

I do hope you guys appreciate the amount of time and effort I have to put into giving you these massive updates three times a day. You guys are the reason I do it! 🙂

Speaking of updates… They will be coming your way later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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