Daily Archives: December 20, 2017

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Updating The Christmas Weekend Mess

Good evening, my little weather weenies. It’s full steam ahead toward our big Christmas weekend and the messy setup for holiday travelers. From heavy rain to the potential for some snow, this weekend can bring all forms of precipitation to our region. Yes, I know you’ve heard me say that a time or two over the past few weeks. 😉

Let’s begin with the heavy rain threat from late Friday into early Saturday. Even now, we still can’t get the models to agree on who gets the axis of heaviest rains. The NAM is aimed more toward Central Kentucky…

The GFS decided to go way south with the heaviest rains, targeting southern and eastern Kentucky…

Regardless, local high water issues are possible during this time. We still have to fine tune who has the best chance of seeing that.

The models continue to trend colder than before with this full setup on system number one. Most agree for a period of mix of light snow developing as the colder air dives in from the northwest. Here’s the latest NAM…

The European Model is trending colder with this same system, with just the chance for some mix on the back edge…

The European Model continues to ramp up the wave of low pressure developing along the stalled front on Christmas Eve. Watch how this system wraps up just to our east…

That’s a decent shot of snow showing up across our region as the low works toward New England. The European Ensembles are very similar with the lows to our east…

The GFS continues to play the role of the Grinch, showing just a few flurries…

That’s one amazing difference between the GFS and the European Model. Which will be right? Will they both crash and burn? Why ask why? 🙂

I like the potential for a light snowfall for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Early Afternoon Thoughts and Trends

Good afternoon, folks. It’s another dreary day for many of us across the bluegrass state, with all eyes on a changing setup for the Christmas Weekend ahead of us.

In the short-term, rain continues to fall across the southern third of the state, with just a shower chance in the north…

The weekend setup continues to be in flux, with the potential for some big changes on the models over the next 24 hours or so. The overall theme of the weekend continues to be pretty consistent on the Canadian Model. It continues to show a colder system from late Friday into Saturday…

And continues to show a healthy system rolling along the front for Christmas Eve and Day…

If we take that run of the Canadian Model verbatim, it would show a significant snow for areas near the Ohio River and into northern Kentucky. It would then bring a 1″-3″ swath of snow for many on Christmas Eve and Day…

That’s not a forecast, but it’s me talking about what that particular model run shows.

The NAM only goes through early Saturday evening, but it’s also trending colder with the first system, bringing a similar snow swath as the Canadian…

If we look at the snowfall forecasts from the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find several of them with a similar snow swath now showing up. Here’s the look on them through Christmas…

The operational run of the GFS is trending colder and farther east with our Friday-Saturday system, but continues t show nothing for Christmas Eve and Day.

The 6z GFS was closest to the Canadian solution…

Here’s your brief summary of my thoughts on all this:

  • Model changes continue to be likely through tonight and Thursday.
  • Heavy rain continues to be likely on Friday into Friday evening.
  • Watch for the potential for a trend toward colder and farther east with this initial system to start the weekend. That could bring that snow swath a little farther south and east. Close call.
  • I still like the wave showing up for Christmas Eve and Day, bringing the potential for some snow to our region.

The longer range continues to look very active with additional systems scooting underneath the arctic air setting in across the country.

This is a fun look showing up on the individual runs of the GFS Ensembles into the first few days of the new year…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will likely put together an “odds” map. I will also throw you guys another update this evening.

Make it a wonderful rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:13 am

Forecasting Headaches Continue For Christmas Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rain is pushing into parts of the bluegrass state today, but this will mainly impact the southern half of the region. This is just a small taste of what’s on the way to start the upcoming Christmas weekend. We have a lot of rain and wind to start things out, but Old Man Winter is going try to close it out.

Let’s begin with today’s rain. It’s mainly across the southern half of the state, with just a shower or two getting north toward Interstate 64. Given the stark difference in weather, temps will likely be all over the place. Here’s regional radar…

Thursday’s weather looks great with temps in the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Then the fun begins.

That brings us to the weekend and we are now back to finding some changes amongst the forecast models on how to handle it all. The GFS continues to be very wet and stormy from Friday into Friday night, but it rushes the cold in quicker on Saturday…

The model is still the only one not making the Christmas Eve and Day system into something more than this…

The Canadian Model has really thrown a wrench into the weather world, trending back toward what we were seeing on the models several days ago. It’s now much colder from start to finish, bringing the bulk of the action with a winter storm late Saturday into early Sunday, with another shot of snow following that up Christmas Eve and Day…

The new European Model isn’t that far away from showing something similar. It has totally lost the strong low idea for Friday and presses the cold in quicker…

It’s not quite at the Canadian Level, but it’s actually not far away from showing something similar.

The model continues to maker a bigger deal of the Christmas Eve and Day system and still brings a swath of snow across Kentucky…

It’s interesting to note, the NAVY Model was the first to show a flatter solution for Friday, bundling the energy for more of a southern low on Saturday and Sunday, similar to what the Canadian is showing. The NAVY does not show precipitation types…

No options are off the table for the weekend, so let’s sit back and see what the model trends are today into Thursday. I suspect we may have a much better picture by tonight.

Once again…

😉

Every single model shows a pattern conducive for a true winter storm traversing the country later next week. This swings under the belly of a massive arctic air mass controlling the overall pattern in North America…

I will have the usual updates later today, so keep checking back. Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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