Daily Archives: December 22, 2017

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Updating The Christmas Weekend Forecast

Good evening and welcome to the Christmas weekend. Rounds of heavy rain continue to press across the region, bringing the potential for local high water issues. That will be followed by the increasing potential for light snow on Christmas Eve.

Let’s begin with the rain train and the potential for heavy rain totals. A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely, with the potential for higher amounts in the south…

The rain slowly tapers off from west to east on Saturday and it may end as a bit of a mix across parts of the region. Some wet snow tries to mix in with the rain across northern and western parts of the state…

A little slush is possible across the far north.

Our next system rolling in here on Sunday into Christmas eve continues to show up a little stronger. The GFS continues to bring light snow to the entire region…

That begins a mix, but quickly goes over to light snow and flurries from west to east. The GFS is showing the light accumulations in our region…

With a wet ground, we should see some initial melting, with that changing once the sun sets and temps drop. Given the wet roads and temps dropping quickly into the upper 20s, icy roads are a possibility late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.

A few flurries are left in the east for Christmas morning, with the potential for another light snow or flake maker arriving by Christmas night. The NAM shows this pushing in…

The Euro has it too…

All of this will be followed up by a bigger system rolling in a few days later…

A full update comes your way tonight, so check back. Make it a good evening and take care.

 

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Time posted: 12:26 pm

Christmas Weekend Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to press into the region, setting the stage for the potential for local high water issues. The soggy setup will then turn a little snowy, just in time for Santa to arrive in the bluegrass state.

There’s nothing more to add to the heavy rain and flood threat. It’s a general 1″-3″ of rain, with locally higher amounts possible in the south and southeast. The best chance for high water comes tonight and early Saturday…

 

 

 

If you go back to just a few days ago, the models weren’t showing accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley, which is why we don’t just blindly follow models.

Another reason is the Christmas Eve light snow maker. This system has been all over the place on the models and even non-existent at times. I talked about how we would likely see the models trend a little stronger with a wave of low pressure and we find them doing just that.

Here’s the GFS…

That is now bringing a MUCH more expansive area of light snow across Kentucky…

This should bring light snow to most of the state… On Christmas Eve. That’s some nice timing by Old Man Winter and Santa! Light accumulations are possible, and I will have the often imitated First Call For Snowfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

If we look at the snowfall for just Christmas weekend, we find a good chunk of our region picking up on some snow…

That’s not a bad match from the map I put out nearly 2 weeks ago…

Additional winter weather threats are lurking just beyond Christmas. I also have sneaking suspicion we will have our first Winter Storm Threat in nearly 2 years.

I will update things again this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

A Flood Threat Before The Flakes Fly

Good Friday, everyone. We have made it to our much anticipated Christmas weekend and Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are ready to steal the show. We have the potential for flooding rains into early Saturday, then the flakes start to fly. We even have the potential to put a little snow on the ground just in time for Santa.

Rain increases from southwest to northeast today and will become heavy at times by the evening…

 

A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely for much of the state, with locally higher amounts possible in the south and southeast. This is where we will see the greatest potential for high water. A Flash Flood Watch is out for many areas today into Saturday.

The trend to colder continues for Saturday, with the increasing potential for a mix of rain and snow showing up across the north as temps drop…

Some models are laying down a little slush in these areas. Let’s see if that colder, quicker, look continues as we get closer.

A light snow maker then works in here for Christmas Eve, with the GFS continuing to see this a little better…

That may begin as a bit of a mix.

Here’s the current GFS snowfall map from now through Christmas Day…

Here’s a little closer look at the same model…

That’s just the model talking and not a forecast from me, but it does match up well with my earlier thoughts on the best chance for light accumulations…

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles continue to be a little more aggressive with the snow chance…

If worthy, I will put together a first call map later today.

The models continue to advertise another little light snow or flake makers zipping in here Christmas Night into Tuesday…

The pattern remains very active after that, with arctic air teaming up several systems rolling underneath the coldest air.. That means a lot of winter action across the country, as evidenced on the individual runs of the GFS Ensembles through the first few days of the New Year…

Your usual updates coming later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.

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