Daily Archives: December 28, 2017

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. All eyes continue to be on the New Year’s weekend and the potential for snow to impact parts of our region. This comes as another bitterly cold air mass moves back in here

The snow late Friday into Saturday continues to target northern and northeastern parts of the state. It’s a fine line we are walking across just to the south. Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Any kind of south trend of just a few miles would greatly change that map. I continue to like what the Canadian Model is cooking with this system. Here’s the short range version of that model…

Notice how the GFS has a MUCH sharper cutoff on the southern edge of the show…

Bitterly cold temps come in behind that system, giving us temps that can make a run at zero by the first two days of the new year. Wind chills go well below zero at times.

The setup coming in after that continues to look absolutely amazing on the European Model. Look at the polar vortex diving in here…

The surface map on that shows a monster east coast winter storm, but each run is coming farther west with it…

Another system dives in here right behind it with a more potent trough diving southward a few days later…

That too is a heck of a look at the end of the European Model run…

I will update things again tonight, so check back. Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. 2017 is closing up shop on a frigid note, with even colder air ready to pounce as we kick off 2018. Can we get some snow as our temps go from frigid to bitter? The answer is yes… for some.

Before we get to that, it was another morning of single digit lows with a bare ground…

That, my friends, is tough to do and shows just how cold the air mass really is. Temps this afternoon are already running well below the model forecasts, with some areas struggling to get out of the teens again.

A light snow maker works from northwest to southeast late Friday into Saturday. I continue to like the way the Canadian is handling this…

That matches up well with the “odds” map I put our last night…

Bitterly cold air follows that with crashing temps late Saturday, with single digits showing back up on the final morning of the year. A few flurries are possible for New Year’s Eve with temps in the upper single digits to low teens as 2018 arrives.

Bitter cold air then settles in for Monday and Tuesday, with the potential for zero or a little below showing up. The Canadian continues to look way too extreme, but is fun to look at…

Other models are now joining in with the European and the major trough for the middle of the week…

You’re going to see the Polar Vortex impacting our weather, with the threat for a major eastern US storm system.

I will have a weekend “First Call For Snowfall” on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. I will also have another update this evening.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:14 am

Tracking Bitter Cold and Possible Snow

Good Thursday, everyone. Our big New Year’s weekend is just around the corner, and we are tracking bitterly cold temps and some snow. It’s quite the setup for the days ahead, with bitterly cold temps likely to hang tough through the early days of 2018.

Temps out there this morning are in the single digits for many, with wind chills below zero. This is impressive cold considering we have a bare ground. Can we change that in the coming days? For some areas, yes.

We continue to watch the weekend and it’s all eyes on a system diving in Friday night and Saturday. If you want snow this weekend, this is the one you need to focus on. The one behind it is going to get crushed by the bitterly cold air coming into town.

I like how the Canadian Model is handling this system…

We’re seeing a quick spike in temps across southern Kentucky on Saturday and that usually means more precipitation can develop in the cold air. The exact placement of the snow shield is still not etched in stone, but here’s my current thinking on snowfall odds…

That’s a rough estimate and the weather doesn’t follow made up lines. 🙂 I hope to get a first call map out later today.

Winds will be VERY gusty as bitterly cold air surges in Saturday into the last day of the year on Sunday. That crushes our system moving along the south. Here’s the Canadian…

The European Model is the only one trying to do a little more, but it just can’t overcome the crushing cold…

That would actually bring some flurries across the region, but nothing more at this point. Temperatures to start the new year will be brutal. Lows on New Year’s Day can drop to zero or a little below in much of the region.

The setup after New Year’s Day on the European Model is for something big across the eastern half of the country. A trough like this is rare to see on a forecast model…

Something like that has been showing up with each run of the European Model, and that’s why we need to pay attention. Since getting out of the pattern where it struggled with ejecting southwestern troughs, the European is back to being the king.

From forecasting the Christmas weekend flooding and snow, to the non southern storm of this week and weekend… the Euro is rolling.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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