Daily Archives: January 6, 2018

Time posted: 8:08 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We have one more bitterly cold night ahead, with all eyes on a winter weather system moving in Sunday night and Monday.

Here are my latest thoughts:

  • A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain develops from west to east Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
  • It is incredible difficult to pinpoint any one precipitation type for any location. The same can also be said for duration of each precipitation type.
  • Ground temperatures are well below freezing, so it won’t take much of whatever falls to create slick roads where you live.
  • The greatest travel impact comes early Monday morning.
  • Let’s clear something up… This does NOT look like an ice storm.

The various forecast models are not fully capable of  grasping the amount of low-level cold air, nor do they understand the whole frozen ground concept. Normal forecast model algorithms aren’t going to be of much use.

Even if temps manage to creep above freezing ahead of the precipitation moving in, those numbers will drop as precipitation starts falling. The frozen ground will also mean the above air temps won’t do much for keeping untreated roads, sidewalks or parking lots from becoming icy.

That said, we can still see if any model is close to grasping the setup. The Canadian Model has done VERY well in recent weeks. It really sees the freezing rain potential…

The European Model had not been seeing very much of the frozen precipitation leading up to this. The latest run is starting to see the setup. Here are the snow and ice maps from the last run…

While this system is NOT a major storm, it is likely to be a HIGH impact travel system late Sunday night into early Monday.

Looking farther down the road, we continue to see the setup for a wild end of the week. Temps can make a run toward the 60s before arctic air and winter weather return just hours later…

I will have your full update with a New Call For Snow/Icefall coming later tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.


Time posted: 12:51 pm

A Big Winter Weather Impact Ahead

Good Saturday afternoon, everyone. A significant winter weather impact is on the way to the bluegrass state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring a combination of wintry precipitation to our region, leading to nasty travel conditions developing. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat for some areas, but want to wait for one more model run before making that call.

Before we get to that, let’s hear a standing ovation for the amazingly low temps out there this morning…

Many readings reached below zero on the Kentucky Mesonet sites, with -7 showing up in several locations… With a bare ground.

As we have talked about for nearly a week, the model trend continues to be for a colder system coming in late Sunday into Monday. A combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow and some rain will work across the state during this time.

It’s difficult to get very specific with how much of each precipitation type can fall in any one area, but here’s a new call on the potential…

The numbers and lines are pretty flexible in a situation like this, so I will be sending out future updates on “the call:. Regardless, this will have a significant travel impact starting Sunday evening and continuing into Monday.

I mentioned the models and the colder trend. The GFS is exhibit A…

Here are the winter weather maps from that run…

The 6z run of the NAM was a little disconcerting with a much heavier band of winter weather concentrating on north central Kentucky…

The frozen ground is going to be an absolute beast when it comes to travel. We are going to ice things up pretty good, unless the snow signal can fully win out.

The late week system continues to look pretty darn awesome and amazing. Let’s start with the temperatures on Thursday afternoon…

Fast forward to Friday night…

That’s around a 50 degree drop in roughly 24-30 hours. The Bold Prediction is watching this carefully. 😉

With that kind of a spread, there’s bound to be some action along the front. Sure enough, we have a thunderstorm to mix and snow setup on the models, with the potential for low pressure to develop on the front.

Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian is similar…

This continues to be wild winter pattern, as we are entering the next phase of this historic winter.

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 1:47 am

Tracking A Messy Setup

Good Saturday to one and all. Stop me if you’ve heard this before… But, it’s another brutally cold day out there across the Commonwealth. The good news is, the bitter cold is about to break. The bad news is, we have a wintry mix coming behind it.

We start things out with readings of -5 to + in most areas, with a wind chill pushing -10 for some. Afternoon readings top out in the upper teens and low 20s with a mostly sunny sky.

Temps tonight into Sunday morning should manage to hit the single digits again in the central and east.

That will make it 7 straight days of single digits or colder to begin the new year. Take a step back and just appreciate how amazingly cold this pattern has been. It’s historic.

Moisture begins to stream in from west to east late Sunday into Sunday night. With low-level arctic air in place, frozen precipitation looks like a good bet. Throw in a frozen ground, and you have the recipe for nasty travel conditions to develop.

That’s especially true when seeing the Monday morning temps from the NAM…

Don’t get caught up with the precipitation types showing up on the models. They will struggle mightily in this setup. As I’ve mentioned many times before, even if air temps go above freezing, the ground is frozen, so you will get roads to ice up.

Let’s keep this rolling for a little longer…

 I can’t speak to 100% specifics of each precipitation type where you live, but the icy road potential is pretty darn high, regardless.

That system moves away quickly, with a surge of mild temperatures getting in here later Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS for Thursday…

That’s ahead of a powerful cold front, bringing this about a day later…

Rain and some thunder will be possible ahead of that front, with frozen precipitation showing up just behind it…

That setup should be able to fuel a low pressure along the front, bringing the potential for a bigger system by late Friday or Saturday.

I will have updates later today, so check back.

Make it a good one and take care.