Daily Archives: January 9, 2018

Time posted: 10:14 pm

The NAM Goes BAM

Good late evening, folks. Our Winter Storm Threat continues for Friday and Saturday. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the latest run of the NAM and to use a blog title we haven’t had the chance to use for a while. 🙂

Let me be as upfront as I can be right out of the gate… THIS IS NOT A FORECAST from me. I’m only sharing what this model run is showing.

The NAM is much colder, quicker on Friday, leading to much more widespread ice and snow…

If this run of the NAM even comes slow to verifying, it’s a shutdown storm for much of the region. Significant amounts of ice and snow both show up…

Freezing Rain

Snowfall

I’ve put the disclaimer on the maps that this is NOT A FORECAST from me… right now. It’s what this run of the NAM is showing.

The NAM is also showing wind gusts of 30-40mph during the event.

Let’s relax and see what the rest of the models show over the next few hours. I will post those, too, regardless of if they show something similar or something much lower.

Winter Storm THREAT continues.

Take care.

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Time posted: 5:49 pm

Winter Storm THREAT Friday and Saturday

Good evening, everyone. It’s been a few years, but the blog is back in Winter Storm THREAT mode. This is for our developing storm coming our way Friday and Saturday. We still have several questions that need to be answered about the storm, but confidence is high that a winter storm will impact our region.

The questions with our storm are the typical ones… Where does low track exactly? How strong does the storm get? While I’m not expecting this to be a system that features MAJOR deviations , we still have the usual wiggle room with track and intensity.

Let’s start the Threat out with a general risk area…

For those new to how we do things on KWC… A threat means there is an increased risk for significant amounts of snow (4″ or more) or ice (.30″ or greater). If confidence increases as we get closer, we upgrade to Winter Storm ALERT. If confidence decreases, we downgrade to “what could have been”. 🙂

As we get closer, I will hone in even more on the greatest risk area. For now, I feel good that a large chunk of our region will get in on a substantial hit from this winter storm. It’s a winter storm that can put down significant amounts of snow and ice. At this point, I cannot tell you what that means for your backyard specifically.

The intensity of this storm is ramping up a bit on the forecast models, especially the European and NAM. Both models show a POTENT upper level system closing off to our southwest, then lifting northward into the region…

European

NAM

That allows for a tremendous amount of lift and develops a stronger surface low. That low should track from east Tennessee into West Virginia.

The European Model has a lot of precipitation, with a quick switch from rain to ice and snow taking place from west to east. This sequence starts Thursday night and ends Saturday evening…

The NAM only goes through 1am Saturday, but has a similar look…

Since both models show a strengthening low, they are increasing the potential for high winds. The European Model wind gusts for Friday night…

If the NAM and European Models hold, it’s a major winter storm impacting much of Kentucky and surrounding areas.

The GFS had been similar earlier, but the late afternoon run came in with a weaker system…

That is still a good hit for our region, but is much weaker than the other models. If we keep getting agreement from the European and NAM over the next few days… Look out.

We are still more than 48 hours away from the first winter weather impacting western parts of the state, so changes to the forecast are very possible. It’s way too early to talk specifics or to put out any kind of first call maps.

After lingering snow showers into Sunday, another threat level system may impact our region from later Monday through Tuesday…

I may throw you another update before the evening is finished. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:16 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I’m dropping by for a quick update on the late week winter storm potential. The wild looking setup hasn’t changed at all, with a huge temperature swing leading us into an Ohio Valley winter storm. Now, it’s all about figuring out where the low tracks and who gets the biggest impact.

I can say this, the setup looks more potent today than it did yesterday, with the potential for this low to strengthen just a little more. That means wind will also become more of a player.

The GFS continues to put down ice and snow across much of the bluegrass state…

The Canadian…

You can clearly see both models taking the track I outlined last night, from east Tennessee to West Virginia. That is usually a good track for a swath of heavy snow across our region. That fits with the outline I put out last night…

Some thoughts:

  • I have not upgraded to a Winter Storm THREAT because I want to see the afternoon runs, especially the European Model.
  • This WILL be upgraded, but I want to specifically target the main areas of concern when I do. Right now, it would be pretty general.
  • The prime time for this system to impact our weather will be from Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
  • Winds will become a player with this system, with gusts reaching 25-30mph at times.
  • Another system comes in behind this one by early next week. That may be another snow maker.

I’m off work today, so I may not follow my normal updating times. You may get a few more updates before the day is finished.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:46 am

Watching A Possible Late Week Winter Storm

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s a milder pattern taking shape for the next few days, but a developing winter storm is going to try and steal the show by Friday and Saturday. It’s a system that may target parts of our region for the worst of the winter weather.

Before we get to that mess, let’s talk about the weather out there today.

Low clouds and fog are going to be awfully stubborn today. Throw in some drizzle and light showers, and you can get a pretty ugly day for some…

Showers move in tonight as warmer air surges in from the southwest. Temps spike well into the 50s on Wednesday, with 60 possible in the south and west.

From there, the 60s show up for many of us on Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. This is ahead of a modified arctic front dropping in from the west and northwest. As that front moves in, low pressure develops to our south and rolls northeastward.

The exact track of that low will be the key on who gets in on a potential winter storm from Thursday night through Saturday. Right now, odds favor that low lifting from the deep south into east Tennessee and toward West Virginia, but the evolution on all that is still in doubt.

I’m fully anticipate a Winter Storm Threat coming later today, but I wanted to go ahead and try to give a broad view of the areas most at risk for a potential impact…

The greatest risk area is pretty general as I expect the brunt of the storm to be felt somewhere within that area. It does NOT mean the entire area will get hit , though I certainly can’t rule it out. The timing on it all is also dependent on your location. The farther west, the earlier the impact, obviously.

Let’s look at the latest model trends.

The GFS is farthest east of the model spread…

The GFS is a healthy hit for much of Kentucky.

The Canadian Model is a little stronger and slower and is just a hair west of the GFS with the greatest impact…

The European Model continues to be farthest west of all available models. It’s the only one closing off the energy at 500mb, and that is likely due to the bias of the model in being too slow with southern stream energy…

That’s still a healthy hit for western and central Kentucky, but it’s likely too wound up with the surface low. Still, it’s the European Model, so it gets a little more of a look.

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles like the bluegrass state..

Here’s the average of those 21 models…

Some thoughts:

  • It’s important to note the above models are not forecasts from me. I’m just sharing the behind the scene  goods with you guys.
  • Nothing is close to being etched in stone, but this looks like an Ohio Valley winter storm in the making.
  • Does that mean it hits your house? No. Does it mean you have an increased chance? Yep.

As the storm departs, wraparound snow showers and flurries may carry us through Sunday. That’s also when temps have a chance at hitting the single digits again…

Another system is likely to blow in here early next week, potentially bringing some snow…

This continues to be one amazing winter pattern across the country!

I will have updates later today, with the potential of upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT for parts of our region.

Have a great day and take care.

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