Daily Archives: January 11, 2018

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Winter Storm ALERT Update

Good evening, everyone. As we wrap up another record setting high temperature day, it’s full steam ahead toward our winter storm arriving from west to east tonight and Friday. Our WINTER STORM ALERT CONTINES.

The transition to ice begins later tonight in western Kentucky, then rolls eastward from there. Snow will then take control behind the ice, with eastern Kentucky being last to get the switch.

Here’s my current call for Ice and Snowfall…

That is not the final call, and I will be massaging that call later this evening.  Significant snows are likely across our region. The snow totals for any one area will be dependent on how quickly the transition from ice to snow is. The slower that is, the lower the snow totals. The quicker it is, the higher the totals.

Regardless, this is a super high impact system.

Let’s check the latest snowfall numbers from the computer models.

The European…

GFS Ensembles average…

GFS

NAM

European Ensembles

Given all that guidance, one would assume a Winter Storm Warning had been issued for just about the entire state. Nope…

I am stunned the warning does not include, at least, the Lexington metro north and east.

Bitter cold follows all this for the weekend, with another very healthy snowmaker screaming into town on Monday.

Also of note, the heavy rain threat across far eastern Kentucky tonight and early Friday. Local high water issues are possible…

I will be tweeting out my latest thoughts and have a fresh call for ice and snowfall on WKYT at 11.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Winter Storm ALERT

Good afternoon, everyone. Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will impact much of the state late Tonight through Saturday morning. For that reason, we are now in Winter Storm ALERT mode. This is for the potential of significant ice and snow accumulations.

Before we get to the winter storm, we have showers and storms going up our there today. Some of these can put down some heavy rain amounts…

A Winter Storm Watch is out for much of the state, and I expect this to be upgraded to a warning and expanded eastward later today…

I’m keeping my current Call For Ice and Snowfall going, but will likely have to bump up a few spots later today…

The NAM might be the most inconsistent model I’ve seen in a while. It goes back and forth between showing a foot of snow and an inch of snow. Obviously, the NAM is struggling, so we look in other directions.

The GFS is getting a better handle on the precipitation shield…

While still too choppy for my taste, it matches up pretty well with my forecast map. Note the areas different areas of up to 6″ of snow…

Again, that’s too choppy and I expect more of a solid snow swath. That’s what the Canadian continues to show…

Here’s the snow map from that run…

The short-range Canadian model is even beefier with the snows…

In addition to the snow, I am VERY concerned with the ice threat, especially across the west. Up to a half inch of freezing rain may occur in several areas. That would be enough to cause some power issues. Farther east, freezing rain will likely accumulate some before the snows kick in.

The worst of this storm hits western Kentucky later tonight into the first half of Friday. Central Kentucky gets the worst from Friday afternoon through the wee hours of Saturday morning. Eastern Kentucky gets the worst by Friday evening into Saturday morning.

No matter where you are, this is a high impact winter storm for travel.

Frigid temps follow this up for the weekend and I’m close to issuing a Winter Storm Threat for Monday and Tuesday. With arctic air in place, the system diving in from the northwest can put down several inches of snow and create blowing snow…

Back to today’s system, I will have an updated call on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Updates on the blog may come at any time today.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:35 am

Winter Storm Threat Continues

Good Thursday, everyone. With temperatures hitting the 60s today, it’s hard to imagine a winter storm moving in here in less than 24 hours, but that’s indeed what’s happening. I continue with the Winter Storm THREAT, but an upgrade to Winter Storm ALERT will be coming later today.

I have to admit, it’s been tough updating blogs, doing everything that comes with my full time TV job, and trying to keep track of everything that comes with twitter. If I didn’t respond to your questions, please don’t be offended. 🙂 Oh yeah…  Sleep is for the weak! Let’s do this…

I made a First Call Map on WKYT at 11 last night, but I’ve already scrapped that one and come up with a new version for you guys. I wanted to open up my range a little bit to deal with the snow and ice potential…

That’s a general estimate and the numbers and lines will fluctuate with future updates. Given the various precipitation types of sleet, freezing rain and snow, the totals can vary if any one type hangs around longer where you live.

Still, this looks the part of a decent winter storm for much of Kentucky and surrounding states. Given the current forecast I have, I’m expecting winter storm watches soon for most of the state. For school administrators, you’re going to have some tough decisions to make for Friday. The change to ice and snow happens quickly from west to east during the day.

The ice threat is real, especially across the west. Some local half inch amounts of freezing rain are very possible. That could pose some power issues.

Gusty winds of 30mph or higher will also be with us Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Let’s see what the models are offering up…

The European Model shows a significant winter storm for the entire region. Watch the progression of the rain to ice to snow from west to east…

That starts with late tonight and runs through Saturday morning. You will also notice some curvature in the band of snow across central Kentucky. Those bands can sometimes be overachievers and we will need to see if and where that does setup.

The ice from the Euro is impressive with amounts pushing close to 1″ in the west…

Nothing good comes from that much ice… Nothing.

The same model run is also impressed with that band of snow across the state…

The NAM is similar to that, but isn’t as enthusiastic with the snow band in central Kentucky, The model is still spitting some hefty amounts…

The HI RES NAM only goes through 7am Saturday morning, but you can see it picking up on the heavy snow band,  but just a bit west of the European and the map from above…

That run of the NAM is trending eastward with that main snow setup.

The Canadian Model suggests something similar to the European in terns of intensity and track of our storm…

It is also hitting western Kentucky hard with ice…

The model does have a lot of sleet as well, cutting down a bit on the snow totals in central Kentucky…

Obviously, it’s almost crunch time, so we should see the models start looking more alike later today.

While this winter storm is getting all the attention, do not sleep on the setup later Monday and Tuesday. This is a very intense system wrapping up as it dives in from the northwest…

GFS

Canadian

The European is very similar, but I can’t force myself to make yet another map. That’s coming into arctic air, so the ratios will be very high. Plus, those systems have been known to try and bomb out as they reach the east coast.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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