Daily Archives: January 27, 2018

Time posted: 6:50 pm

A Quick Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on what follows our weekend rains. In addition to the late week system, I’m also watching the late Monday-early Tuesday system.

A disturbance dives into the region, producing a swath of light snow and snow showers by Monday afternoon. That lasts us through early Tuesday, and the models are a little better organized with the snow potential. Notice how northern and eastern Kentucky have increased totals on the Euro and GFS…

European

GFS

Some decent totals may fall across southern Ohio into West Virginia during this time. We will have to see if this thing continues to increase as we get closer.

The late week system continues to show a strong signal, but the extent of that signal is what we have to determine in the coming days. Can this produce a significant snow event across parts of our region? Absolutely. Will it? Obviously, that remains to be seen.

As mentioned earlier, the models are in the time period where they flip around a lot with any system, especially one like this.

The late afternoon GFS continues to show our rain to snow event…

I leave you with your soggy Saturday evening rain trackers…

Have a great evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:47 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. A wall of rain is rolling across the state, bringing heavy downpours with it. This rain is ahead of the first or two fronts to impact our weather through Monday. The second front brings the chance for snow showers, leading us back into a winter pattern that may fire up a bigger system later next week.

Before we get into all that, let’s track today’s rain…

The rain tapers off on Sunday, with a decent afternoon taking shape for many. The next front then works in here Sunday night and early Monday, with a cold northwesterly wind settling in behind it. That should touch off a period of light snow and snow showers that takes us into early Tuesday.

The GFS suggests a lot of coatings, with locally higher accumulations possible across the east and southeast…

Some cancellations and delays are possible Tuesday, especially in the east.

I have no changes to the thoughts on the late week system. The pattern appears to be setup for a potential significant winter weather event across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.¬† As with any system, the devil is in the details, especially from several days out. You could get only get a little snow, or you could get quite a bit more. It’s just too early in the game.

Here are the determining factors on how much winter weather we get:

  • Much depends on where the front is as the wave of low pressure develops along it.
  • Areas along and north and west of the track of the low would have the best chance for accumulating snows.
  • How strong does this wave of low pressure get?

We still have a few days before those details are ironed out, so let’s just sit back and track how it all unfolds. As I always say, never get caught up in any one model run, especially in this time frame. Models in that 3-6 day window seem to lose their way a little, only to find it again within the 3 day window.

That said, let’s check on the current model runs.

The European Model shows a healthy hit for our region…

The GFS has a similar idea to what it’s been showing for many days now…

The Canadian Model has a slower frontal passage, leading to a slightly farther north low. It is currently an outlier amongst all the models…

The 21 member GFS Ensembles average snowfall continues to target the Ohio Valley…

Even after this system, the pattern argues for a few more threats behind it. If we take the above map from the GFS Ensembles and add another week to it, we can clearly see the storm track taking shape…

I will try to update things again this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 2:02 am

Winter Looks To Return In A Big Way

Good Saturday, my fellow weather weenies. As rain rolls across the state today, major changes are on the way for the upcoming week. Our halftime of winter is coming to an end, and Old Man Winter is ready to start the second half with a long return for a touchdown. I’ve got a blowout post to cover it all. ūüôā

Today’s rains will increase from west to east, with several hours of steady rain likely for any one location…

Local amounts of greater than a half inch are likely through the first half of Sunday. That’s when the rain ends across the southeast, with some sunshine showing up across the region.

Another cold front then slides in here late Sunday night into Monday, unleashing a cold northwesterly wind. That wind will create rounds of snow showers and flurries through early Tuesday…

Light accumulations are a good bet during this time, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky.

As we head toward the second half of next week, our winter storm signal continues to show up for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

An arctic front moves in and slows down, allowing a storm system to develop along the front. This system should have ample moisture to work with and much of that falls in the colder air. Just how strong this system gets, is still to be determined, so we still have a lot of time to watch it.

That said, we continue to see amazing agreement from all the models. The GFS¬†keeps showing¬†a significant storm for our region…

The Canadian Model is similar, but shows much broader coverage of the precipitation shield…

The European Model is coming around to the stronger system idea and is similar to the above models…

 

If we look at the GFS Ensembles (21 members)¬†snowfall average, we also find our region in the target zone…

In some aspects, not all, this reminds me a little¬†bit¬†of February 2015. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will turn out in similar fashion.

If we can put a snowpack on the ground, temps next weekend can get back to where we were into much of the first half of January…

Arctic cold shots are lining back up, and will keep coming into the country over the next few weeks, at least…

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

26 Comments