Daily Archives: January 28, 2018

Time posted: 7:46 pm

Late Weekend Update

Good evening, folks. We are wrapping up a pretty nice Sunday across much of the region, but Old Man Winter is about to throw some shots at us for the week ahead.

The first shot is a light one, slated to arrive later Monday into early Tuesday. That’s when a cold front works in from northwest to southeast. Temps may spike to the 40s ahead of it, but quickly drop as the front sweeps in. Much of the precipitation with this is back in the cold air, leading to light snow and snow showers.

Watch this action show up well on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM…

Light accumulations are possible, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. Slick travel may also develop as we head into Monday night and early Tuesday.

The late week system continues to be in a holding pattern until we can fully get all the energy onshore and properly sampled. That will then be ingested into the models, giving them a better handle on how things play out Thursday and Friday.

The new GFS is trying to find the system again…

One reason the GFS is faster and weaker with this system is because it’s being pushed by a system coming in right behind it. The GFS tries to bring another snow threat by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday…

A new model from Germany has recently become more accessible. I have been watching it for a few weeks now, and it seems to be a reliable tool. Granted it’s the new kid in town, but the ICON Model looks like the Canadian from earlier…

I will try to really hone in on this setup later tonight into Monday.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:35 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track two winter weather systems for the week ahead. The first rolls in here later Monday, with the second one due in later in the week. That system can bring a bigger threat of winter weather to our region.

The Monday light snow maker arrives during the afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Periods of light snow and snow showers will be likely, putting down light accumulations. The best chance to pick up on accumulating snows will be in the mountains of the east.

That’s where a few models are spitting out an inch or so…

With temps dropping toward 20 late Monday night, slick spots may easily develop on roads in the east.

The late week system continues to evolve and we finally have the GFS doing what it does best… losing systems in that 3-6 day window…

That said, I mentioned in my last post that this system would trend more south than north. I just think it’s way too weak. Can that above scenario happen? Only if the arctic front just crushes everything.

The Canadian Model continues to show a healthy hit across Kentucky and surrounding areas…

The European Model is more similar to the Canadian, but has a slower transition from rain to snow…

There are still lots of questions surrounding this upcoming system, and we are firmly in that window of the models missing out on key aspects of any such system.

I will have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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