Daily Archives: January 28, 2018

Time posted: 7:46 pm

Late Weekend Update

Good evening, folks. We are wrapping up a pretty nice Sunday across much of the region, but Old Man Winter is about to throw some shots at us for the week ahead.

The first shot is a light one, slated to arrive later Monday into early Tuesday. That’s when a cold front works in from northwest to southeast. Temps may spike to the 40s ahead of it, but quickly drop as the front sweeps in. Much of the precipitation with this is back in the cold air, leading to light snow and snow showers.

Watch this action show up well on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM…

Light accumulations are possible, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. Slick travel may also develop as we head into Monday night and early Tuesday.

The late week system continues to be in a holding pattern until we can fully get all the energy onshore and properly sampled. That will then be ingested into the models, giving them a better handle on how things play out Thursday and Friday.

The new GFS is trying to find the system again…

One reason the GFS is faster and weaker with this system is because it’s being pushed by a system coming in right behind it. The GFS tries to bring another snow threat by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday…

A new model from Germany has recently become more accessible. I have been watching it for a few weeks now, and it seems to be a reliable tool. Granted it’s the new kid in town, but the ICON Model looks like the Canadian from earlier…

I will try to really hone in on this setup later tonight into Monday.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:35 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track two winter weather systems for the week ahead. The first rolls in here later Monday, with the second one due in later in the week. That system can bring a bigger threat of winter weather to our region.

The Monday light snow maker arrives during the afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Periods of light snow and snow showers will be likely, putting down light accumulations. The best chance to pick up on accumulating snows will be in the mountains of the east.

That’s where a few models are spitting out an inch or so…

With temps dropping toward 20 late Monday night, slick spots may easily develop on roads in the east.

The late week system continues to evolve and we finally have the GFS doing what it does best… losing systems in that 3-6 day window…

That said, I mentioned in my last post that this system would trend more south than north. I just think it’s way too weak. Can that above scenario happen? Only if the arctic front just crushes everything.

The Canadian Model continues to show a healthy hit across Kentucky and surrounding areas…

The European Model is more similar to the Canadian, but has a slower transition from rain to snow…

There are still lots of questions surrounding this upcoming system, and we are firmly in that window of the models missing out on key aspects of any such system.

I will have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:02 am

Winter Weather Gets Ready To Return

Good Sunday, everyone. Rain continues to slowly end across eastern and southeaster Kentucky, as we get ready for winter to surge back into the bluegrass state. I’m tracking two winter weather events for the week ahead, with the late week one potentially being a decent storm.

Today’s rain presses out of the east, leaving us with increasing amounts of sun from northwest to southeast…

Much colder air comes back in here early Monday, with a strong little disturbance dropping in from the northwest later in the day. This will touch off a period of light snow and snow showers that takes us into early Tuesday morning. Some light accumulations are very possible across central and eastern Kentucky.

I’m watching northern and eastern Kentucky for the potential of picking up on an inch or so of snow. Some delays and cancellations are very possible on Tuesday.

Our late week winter storm signal continues to show up for much of Kentucky and surrounding regions. This signal has been on our radar well before the models started picking up on it, but they are picking up on it in a big way.

Here’s the latest GFS, showing our rain to snow system Thursday into Friday…

The Canadian continues to correct back toward a more southern solution…

The European Model is a little farther south of that…

The south trend is something to watch for in the coming days. I think this system has a better chance to go south than north.

This is a pattern loaded with arctic shots and snow threats, with the next round possible by late next Sunday and Monday…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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