Daily Archives: February 2, 2018

Time posted: 7:31 pm

A Quick Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the weekend system rolling our way. In the overall scheme of things, I don’t have any changes to my original thoughts on how it plays out.

This looks like a snow/mix developing Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a period of light rain by Sunday afternoon, then light snow back in by Sunday night.

The early Sunday morning setup is interesting, in that it can provide some areas with a few hours of thumping wet snow. The European Model is most robust with this…

The snow map from that run may be a little overdone, and includes the Sunday night flakes…

That may also have a little sleet contamination, inflating the totals in the southeast.

The European Ensembles are similar…

The GFS Ensembles are also hitting a hot spot of front end snows in central Kentucky…

Nothing like another forecasting headache. Oh, and another headache moves in Tuesday and Wednesday. #teamspring

Enjoy the evening and take care.

17 Comments

Time posted: 12:21 pm

Groundhog Day Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Bluegrass Bubba says we have six more weeks of winter on the way to the bluegrass state, and his long lost cousin, Phil, agreed. The not so furry forecaster known as your friendly weatherdude, reluctantly agrees. 🙁

Today is absolutely Frigid as the temps are busting the models in a huge way. Many of us are struggling to get into the 20s… Even with sunshine.

Our weekend system continues to look like a snow, to rain, then back to snow system from Saturday night through Sunday night.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through Sunday evening, but shows this setup very well…

The snowfall from that setup…

The “normal” run of the NAM is similar to what you see above.

The GFS is also signing a similar tune, but appears to be overshooting the Saturday night temps…

The Canadian is much colder, but with less precipitation…

My thoughts:

  • Snow and a mix move in Saturday night, with accumulations a good bet into Sunday morning.
  • A stripe of 2″+ snows is going to show up, but I haven’t pinpointed where just yet. Surrounding that could be lots of 1″-2″ amounts.
  • Temps rise Sunday afternoon as the precipitation tapers off to light rain.
  • Another system dives in from the northwest, with a band of light snow that lasts into Monday morning. Some light accumulations are possible with this.

Beyond all this… Another storm takes aim at us Tuesday into Wednesday. I think this storm may put the rain/snow dividing line right on top of Kentucky.

GFS

Canadian

Another system will follow that up by next weekend. There’s no shortage of winter weather threats in the pattern we stuck in through the middle of the month, at least.

I will have the latest on all this on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update comes your way this evening. Take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 1:44 am

Bluegrass Bubba Returns

Good Friday to one and all. Today is a big day for our old furry forecasting friend as he comes out of his little hole in the ground to tell us what the next 6 weeks of weather have to offer. Bluegrass Bubba is our virtual groundhog and he’s been with me for more than a decade. Let’s check in with the legendary forecaster…

Bubba did see his shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of winter.

That doesn’t make your friendly weatherdude very happy, so I’m going to have a little talk with our boy. 😉

Frigid temps are following last night’s wet snowfall across the bluegrass state, and now we focus on the weekend system. It still looks like two systems battling it out to see which is the top dog, but that fight may mean both stay wimpy.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Temps will be in the teens this morning with a wind chill in the single digits. Watch for slick spots on area roads. Sunny skies will be noted today, but temps won’t respond very much. Highs will only reach the mid and upper 20s for many areas.

Our weekend system finds the northern branch of the jet stream out of synch with the southern branch. That leads to one weak system moving into the Ohio Valley from the west, leaving another system working across the Tennessee Valley.

That means we get a band of snow and rain working in here Saturday night, with the potential for rain to take over for a few hours on Sunday, then back to some snow Sunday night. Here’s the GFS…

Some accumulations are a good bet on both ends of that system, with the best chance being Saturday night and then again Sunday night. The European Model is showing the potential for some healthy front end snows Saturday night and Sunday morning…

After a break on Monday, let’s do it all over again Tuesday into early Wednesday…

GFS

Canadian

Go big or go home, winter. #teamspring

I will have updates for you later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

70 Comments