Daily Archives: February 3, 2018

Time posted: 12:47 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the messy system moving in tonight and the one coming in behind it later Tuesday.

The moral of the story is, I have no changes to the thoughts I’ve put out for the past few days.

Snow and a mix moves in tonight and early Sunday, with slushy accumulations possible for many. That action then ends as some light rain on Sunday, with another band of light snow entering the picture by Sunday night.

The GFS is showing a few hot spots of decent wet snow accumulations late tonight…

The Hi Res NAM is doing the same, but is more generous with the flakes for most of the area…

We also need to watch for some light freezing rain in the valleys across the east…

The radar will look busy this afternoon, but much of the stuff across Kentucky isn’t hitting the ground. That starts in the west later in the evening…

The late Tuesday-Wednesday system continues to do what we have talked about… trend south and east. The latest GFS shows this…

The Canadian is even farther south and east, putting much of Kentucky in the bullseye of winter weather…

I’m going to try to get out an evening update, but it may be later than normal. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

Another Messy System This Weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. After a small break in the action, another winter weather maker is on the way tonight into Super Bowl Sunday. This is a system that can bring a slushy snowfall and a wintry mix to much of the Commonwealth.

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m expecting:

  • A wintry mix and snow develops across the west late this evening, then increases as it rolls eastward overnight.
  • A healthy band of wet snow will develop on the leading edge of the main precipitation shield.
  • Slushy accumulations of a coating to a few inches will be possible for many areas, with the greatest risk across the northern two-thirds of the state.
  • There is even the potential for a touch of freezing rain in some of the cold valleys of eastern and southeastern Kentucky early Sunday morning.
  • The snow and mix will change to light rain for a time, then end quickly by the middle of the day on Sunday.
  • Temps then crash late Sunday, with another round of light snow diving in from the northwest.
  • Snow showers and flurries continue across the east into Monday morning.

The Hi Res NAM shows the above scenario quite well…

Snow

Freezing Rain

The system rolling in for Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look more and more interesting as we get closer. It’s a stronger storm system starting to track a littler farther south and east with each model run. That’s actually been the winter trend for just about each system we have tracked this go around, bucking the historic trend for our region.

The Canadian Model is farther south, placing the fence right on top of us…

The European Model was way north with the last run, but came way south and east this run. It brings the frozen precipitation threat back into Kentucky…

Again, all of that was well to our north in prior runs.

Speaking of north, that’s where the GFS is, but it’s trying to bend south some…

 

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