Daily Archives: February 9, 2018

Time posted: 7:36 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We continue to track a major rain maker into the bluegrass state this weekend. It’s a setup likely to lead to, at least, some local high water issues developing.

The Flood Watch remains in effect for the same areas through Sunday…

Rainfall totals in these areas will likely range from 2″-4″, with an outside chance for higher amounts showing up. Folks living in a low-lying or flood prone area should be alert to the potential of flooding in the coming days.

The European Model still shows some frozen precip on the backside of the late weekend¬†system…

The pattern remains active late next week into the following weekend. There’s a lot of variability showing up in the pattern. Another heavy rain event or a winter weather threat? The new GFS likes the winter aspect…

Let’s get back to the present setup. Here are your radars to track the rain toward Kentucky from the southwest…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Updating The Weekend Flood Threat

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a mild and breezy day across Kentucky, but the focus is on the deluge coming our way this weekend. Heavy rains are likely to lead to, at least, some local high water issues.

A Flood Watch is now out for a large chink of real estate…

That matches the greatest risk area I put out on Thursday…

A general 2″-4″ rainfall is likely for the greatest risk area, with locally higher amounts possible. The NAM has some 5″+ pockets showing up…

As usual, the GFS is farther south and east with the heaviest totals…

Regardless, flooding and flash flooding are possible across the region over the next few days. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, stay alert.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update will then come your way this evening.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

Heavy Rain This Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. It’s an absolutely gorgeous day out there, with some sunshine and temps on the mild side. This won’t last very long, as a big rain event targets parts of Kentucky over the weekend. This may set the stage for some local high water issues to develop. There’s also a window for a touch of winter weather to end the weekend.

Before we get to all that, the January temperature numbers are in and it was the 22nd coldest January on record for Kentucky…

That database goes back to 1895. Considering we had a few very mild days in here, that’s pretty incredible. That cold comes right after a slightly colder than normal December.

The first 8 days of February have also been much colder than normal in Kentucky…

Moral of the story… this winter is going to average colder than normal.

Today is not among the colder than normal days, with highs reaching deep into the 50s to near 60. Clouds will increase and winds will gusty up ahead of our weekend system.

A cold front moves in and slows down, allowing two waves of low pressure to work along it. The first moves in Saturday into Saturday night, with heavy rain the primary player. The next wave late Sunday into Monday may have a more wintry side to it.

Here’s how the NAM sees things through Monday morning…

The heavy rain with this run is much broader and farther north and west than earlier runs. Here’s the forecast through Monday morning…

That would bring the flood threat into much of central and eastern Kentucky.

The new GFS is also broader and trending north and west…

Given all that, I’ve expanded the greatest risk for high water…

The second wave of low pressure developing later Sunday into early Monday has more of a wintry aspect to it. Here’s the freezing rain forecast from the NAM…

Here’s the same look from the GFS…

Snow on the NAM…

Snow on the GFS…

I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back.

Make it a good one and take care.

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