Daily Archives: February 12, 2018

Time posted: 7:46 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. The focus of the forecast continues to be on the potential for more rounds of very heavy rain over the next few weeks.

The setup can put us in the prime zone for additional high water issues.

A few showers hit southeastern Kentucky late tonight and early Tuesday, but that won’t be a big deal. Showers will then increase quickly Tuesday night into Wednesday, leading to more heavy rounds of rain through Friday.

That will be followed by another big rain maker late weekend into early next week. Rain totals for these events will likely be excessive. Here’s the Canadian…

Additional systems will then come at us later next week into the following week. The GFS Ensembles show the target zone of the heaviest rain aimed right at us…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:22 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. My focus over the next few weeks will continue to be about a setup that can produce more flooding issues across our region.

In my last post, I put the high water threat bulls eye right on trop of Kentucky, and the models continue to back me up on this. Take a look at the GFS rainfall forecast for the next week…

If we take that through all of next week, the numbers keep jumping…

Watch the series of systems working in, one right after another…

Nothing good can come from this setup, folks.

I will update again this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

105 Comments

Time posted: 1:51 am

Tracking A Wintry Mix and Another Heavy Rain Threat

Good Monday, everyone. We have a wintry mix causing a few travel issues to start the day, but the main focus going forward is on the heavy rain threats lining up. The overall setup looks to make Kentucky the target for additional flooding issues over the next few weeks.

Let’s start with the messy morning for travelers. A mixture of light freezing rain, light snow and some sleet is working across the state. This is putting down an icy glaze, so please be careful on the roads. Things will improve later in the day as temps go above freezing.

I will get to your tracking tools in a moment.

As I mentioned earlier, the focus going forward is on a the potential for more flooding rains. The setup over the next few weeks looks to put Kentucky sandwiched between mild air in the southeast and cold air to our north and northwest. As these two air masses fight it out, that should lead to a very active storm track across our region.

While I expect some winter weather systems to try and sneak into the region, my concern is we end up with multiple heavy rain events. That would put our region right in the bullseye of potential high water issues…

Given the flooding we are still dealing with in some areas, the bluegrass state (and some of the surrounding states) won’t be able to handle much more water. Unfortunately, more is on the way and it comes this week.

Showers increase by Wednesday, with a rumble of thunder possible…

This sets the stage for the next heavy rain treat coming Thursday into Friday. A cold front drops in from the northwest and slows down, allowing for waves of low pressure to develop along it.

A general 1″-3″ of rain may fall across  the state with this system, leading to another high water threat. Colder air should catch the back of the rain shield, switching it over to some light snow.

We will also have to watch for another wave of low pressure developing over the weekend, but there’s a much bigger signal showing up early next week. That may be another major rain maker around here.

Here are your icy morning tracking toys…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good Monday and take care.

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